jdj5211
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Everything posted by jdj5211
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Way too close for comfort for the NE…and the next system to Lees east is a big wildcard here! Things are def going to be very interesting for the next 5 days around here. .
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Looks like it’s riding 70W due north when past runs we were riding 65-67W. Something to keep note of moving forward .
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GFS has this thing just crawling out there… .
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GFS says peace out everybody. I’m leaving.
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For me, the final 0z model runs to lock this track in. NAM up first.
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The southern stream is too strong and ends up pushing it much further east with less phasing. We’ll see about that.
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Yes. Trend is our friend…but it’s also the 18z NAM lol
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NAM more consolidated southern vort and a better digging northern vort. Should be a good result for us
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This is all about the trend here for me. The trend is west and colder. That’s a good thing because it could be going the other way. Now we wait for the fine tuning and see how it plays out. There’s still some time on the clock here.
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Yes GFS slightly west and deeper than 6z. Still warm for us unfortunately
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12Z NAM further SE with the low. Don’t think it will be as tucked in this run
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It’s somewhat close but I suggest setting yourself up for a letdown and hoping to be pleasantly surprised when tomorrow’s model runs paint a better picture for us. We’ve seen big swings within 48-72 hours but that’s about it. We’re on life support here.
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I laughed out loud haha
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Oh yes, the track is what we want....just need it to bomb out sooner and filter in colder air...90% of NJ would be all rain with the majority of NW NJ...overall positive direction but its also the NAM at the end of its range
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NAM is super tucked along the NJ shore....rain rain go away....
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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
jdj5211 replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
EURO pbp anyone? -
EURO pbp anyone?
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I would say if that secondary piece stuck with the flow of the northern low that would have been a much better run for us than previous GFS runs. We’re still in the game at this point and that’s all we can ask for. If euro holds its ground with a monster hit for us I think our odds increase. It hasn’t waivered.
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GFS had duel lows….clearly no model agreement whatsoever at this point. Odd.
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12z gfs looks like it might be better downstream for us…
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looks like a slight NW shift...not enough but at least a move in the right direction...surface map seems off though
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will 00Z GFS cave to EURO solution?
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about as good as it gets...
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18Z Euro not a bad hit for first wave
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Recon plane on the way in shortly....let's see what we got!
