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jdj5211

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Everything posted by jdj5211

  1. jdj5211
    Kuchura is actually showing more than the 10:1 map on most models. Being this will all fall mostly overnight with temps in the high 20s could lead to better than 10:1 in some spots
  2. jdj5211
    Next chance is this Saturday
  3. jdj5211
    Here are the current surface temps: Cold air is just about creeping into NW corner of NJ. We'll see how fast it can get through the region
  4. jdj5211
    RAP needs to come about 75 miles NW to be in the sweet spot. Still holding firm on heaviest axis of snow through CNJ and LI
  5. jdj5211
    Latest 18Z RDPS keeps heaviest snowfall right over NNJ/NYC Metro
  6. jdj5211
    Latest 18Z ICON holds heaviest snowfall axis to the north
  7. jdj5211
    latest 20Z RAP at 10:1 ratio....heaviest snows remain through CNJ. NY state basically a complete miss at this point
  8. jdj5211
    This is literally a 6-7 hour storm, it's moving very quick. Even if you average an inch an hour, at best it's a 6 inch storm. No one is getting a foot of snow here. 3-6 is the safest call, with maybe a few 6+ lollipops in my opinion
  9. jdj5211
    Jan 29, 2022?
  10. jdj5211
    Look at the NAM 10-1 map and then the Kuchera map....notice anything? Kuchura was cutting totals 2-3 inches earlier....now it's almost identical in NNJ...models start to pick up on colder solution, trending back towards a 10-1 ratio....
  11. jdj5211
    NAM is a big hit....can't ignore this trend now....
  12. jdj5211
    Model temps are not an exact science....nothing is.... I'm about 4-5 degrees colder today than I was "supposed" to be....we'll see if models play temperature catchup as we get closer
  13. jdj5211
    The HRRR is interesting and certainly possible if we get a bombing 980mb low at the position. 18Z NAM running now. Time to start looking at the meso models as we get closer to the event.
  14. jdj5211
    For what it's worth, NAM goes 7-9 inches NNJ at 10:1.....probably 3-6 with marginal temps....
  15. jdj5211
    Ah I see....WESTERN Passaic and Bergen.....I have a WSW in Morris county for 4-8
  16. jdj5211
    6-8 in NE NJ? What are they seeing that we aren't?
  17. jdj5211
    now Euro will come on board with a big hit....just to keep messing with our heads
  18. jdj5211
    00Z GFS complete swing and a miss OTS
  19. jdj5211
    06Z GFS showed 4-8 on a 10:1 ratio map, 12Z CMC shows 8-10 on a 10:1 ratio map.... Temps would be crashing into the low 20s during the storm....10:1 ratio is fair, could be even higher. Can't understand how 1-3 is being generous out of this setup?
  20. jdj5211
    06Z GFS was a nice hit for the area. Won't be heavy snow but showed a solid 18 hour storm....easily can pick up 4-8 inches in that setup.
  21. jdj5211
    storm begins around 4pm Saturday still.....low is about 100 miles to the NW compared to 18z run however
  22. jdj5211
    00Z NAM running now....let's see what she's got
  23. jdj5211
    The truth is with Margot’s influence to the east and the storm missing the first trough, it could actually and should actually, move further west…. Definitely an interesting turn of events. Will have to see if this is a trend or a one off. .
  24. jdj5211
    That’s a pretty drastic lean to the SW from earlier runs .
  25. jdj5211
    https://x.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291?s=46&t=zyQ9rqocG2LFGxEY9pKqYg Hard to argue that trend. Wow. .
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