
wizard021
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Everything posted by wizard021
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nyc is in a good position, euro is always nw . I am going gfs all the way.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Euro is going to be wrong like every time since 2015. -
mayor lindsay storm and 1979 pd1 had no pna... pna doesn''t mean anything if energy can go underneath a block.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Cold air pressing more south 1028 pressure line . -
The furtheast east will verify.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Opposite the 500 mb low is more nw and less over Texas than 18z. -
Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
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wetter , but mean is se of the operational.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
You cannot pick and choose ensemble members, there is a reason it is called a MEAN. -
Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
GEFS Gfs op. Gefs clearly se of op. -
Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
It will not go more north, where is the evidence. Gefs were se of the op... though precip was more nw. -
Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
That's a great run for me. -
700 mb vort center 18z run 700 mb vort center 6z. Trend south noted.
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Storm is losing intensity each run and more strung out by 12z Thursday. Looking like 6 to 12 area wide. Qpf only 1.3 yesterday was over 2.
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Euro would certainly favor sleet in the city. 700 mb tracks overhead.
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Jma looks like gfs
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
No it is not at all, it is in good agreement with the gfs. The gefs gets precip .50 inch line more north but is in line with the gfs. -
Ukmet is less amped than the cmc , closer to the gfs but not the same. Would bring in more snow for our area.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
1979 storm. This system has a little morre chance to bring heavy snowfall into se Mass, but the cutoff north will be big as shown on the gefs. http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/cartes/ncep/amer/1979021918.gif Watch how that progression is similar to the upcoming storm. I think the jackpot will be north of the 1979 storm, but south of the 2013 Feb storm. You will see Philly/ NYC jackpot. Just based on observations of the current storm and previous systems.