
wizard021
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511nj.org - Google Chrome (gyazo.com) Nice
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https://511nj.org/camera Turnpike at mile marker 56.6 is getting pounded right now. Cannot see and snow is covering the road which is hard to do on the turnpike.
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
wizard021 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
https://511nj.org/camera Traffic cams over the state , the heaviest snow is south of i-195 right now into Vineland.- 1,011 replies
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Mix line se of Toms river. Huge band of snow coming north.
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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting
wizard021 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Baltimore could get 6 or more inches still. -
I had 6 inches an hour in the 2006 storm. Yes it is.
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Told you all DO NOT doubt the WIZARD.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Im upping totals for nyc to 15 to 20 inches based on radar trends. -
Looks like nyc will have 15 inches of snow by 10pm . The heavy returns on radar are east of the models and going north up i95 . Pa is gona get less than we are.
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Wrong. 700 mb lifting here will overcome that.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Is that 15 for nyc and 12 for Boston? -
December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting
wizard021 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Its smoking 3 to 4 inch hour rates. I am seeing just that. -
Take a look at the lifting on the nam 00z to 03z, thats the strongest fronto I have ever seen. 3 - 4 inch hour totals for sure north of the snow - sleet line. I got a hunch it stays by Monmouth county and I might get jackpots.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Tough to say due to sleet. But I am telling you NYC is gona get hit hard. 00z to 03z very intense fronto forcing at 3z. 2 to 3 inches an hour. Should start at 20z. Looks like light snow or mist, before the ccb on the backside with additional 1 to 2 inches per hour. Ending at 12z. It is now looking like Boston will also get hit hard, but not much further north. This is not getting into Maine and Nh , Albany wont see more than 6 inches. -
I follow the models that support my overall thinking. The people who go model to model are model casting. You develop a thinking of how it develops, then see if any model matches it. I see the low being more east due to the blocking. Plus a lack of a pna argues this wont be that ampified.
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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting
wizard021 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
We are getting slammed in our area, you guys looking good too. 12 - 18 Baltimore - Boston. DC is now 3 to 6 . -
Arw is the short term model for severe storms. Very reliable and I use it more than the hrrr.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
12 - 18 Philly - NYC on a very underrated model. -
The model cmc/ rgem are moving the low too far north and not moving it ene as expected,
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
wizard021 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I have watched HRRR change snow / rain lines within the storm timeframe. Why are we using it 36 hours out?