Rmine1
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Everything posted by Rmine1
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Got it. Wind component too though
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Surprised that there isn’t more chatter about tonight into tomorrow if you follow the latest Upton disco Deep low pres is looking increasingly likely for Sat, with the models coming into agreement with the 12Z cycle. The 12Z NAM has a 981 low over Cape Cod at 21Z Sat, the GFS a 980 low over Montauk at 18Z, and the ECMWF a 983 low near Nantucket at 18Z. These solns indicate rapid deepening invof the cwa on Sat, with locally hvy rainfall thru at least the mrng, and increasing winds thru the day. Although the exact track and intensity is uncertain based on the model spread, peak wind gusts around 40 mph seem likely, particularly LI, and 1-2 inches of rain where the main band sets up nw of the low. The possibility exists for stronger winds gusting in excess of 50 mph if the model trends hold. Winds were increased above model guidance in the grids. Peak winds over land may be limited in the eve, especially inland, by the cooling bl. LI should remain gusty due to the warm waters.
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I think I’ve already exceeded forecast totals. Very heavy rain, and a little thunder to boot
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Mod/heavy rain in Brightwaters. 63
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Surprise pop up storm. Moderate rain
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Pouring in brightwaters. Rumbles of thunder too
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Central LI looking like it is going to over perform with the precip rolling in from the sw.
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Definitely worth it. Barrier island has taken quite a beating, despite no direct tropical impact. The further east you go the worse it gets, but Schmucky Schumer is all over it.
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Perfect October beach day. Just spent two hours body surfing at RM5. Water was chilly, but manageable.
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Oh oh Phelia.
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Weird, it’s like the line is being fed by energy rolling in off the ocean from the east.
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First batch rolling in offshore is getting juicier by the minute.
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Aug ‘14. Much different setup, which I think favors NYC/NNJ/LHV
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Not sure if you know the brightwaters area, but there was a raging river running from the lakes to the Brightwaters canal. Probably 2 feet deep. Only thing that topped it was Sandy surge.
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Godspeed to those unfortunate enough to be in the “jackpot” zone
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- heavy rain
- flooding potential
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Aug ‘14 is forever burned into my brain. Bay Shore train station parking lot was a lake
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- heavy rain
- flooding potential
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Welcome to the club. When did I ever say that it wasn’t going to rain?
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Agreed
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Maybe they will cancel, but it is such a big event, without any severe threat, good chance it won’t be.
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Regardless of precip, it’s going to be pure hell for those competing in the JB 1/2 Ironman race tomorrow. Imagine pedaling East on OP into 30 mph sustained. I was at RM3 earlier, and it was cranking out of the east
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With each NHC update, Ophelia northward progress is slowed, with it dissipating well to our south. Seems plausible that the current predictions are too high
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Sun angle?
