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Everything posted by Brian D
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Back in July I went ahead, and did a work up of MSP area vs rural area annual data. You can find those 2 posts on page 7 of the July thread. I decided to look at 3 other major cities in our sub. Chicago, Detroit, and Indianapolis. This is what I came up with. Just a note, UHE is a big problem in major cities over the many decades of data. Not trying to diminish what goes on in urban environments. Just trying to show the difference in magnitude between more rural, and urban settings over time. And even smaller towns are affected by the UHE, just on a smaller scale, and that needs to be accounted for, as well.
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Looks like a good call here. Nothing tropical in the SE tho. Wasn't sure about that anyway. Definitely an early Fall feel.
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Seems to me autumn has been in the air off n on all summer. And starting a week or so ago, geese have been regularly flying by here. Yesterday saw the most activity with many flocks on the move. Regular movement for this point in Aug seems a bit early to me. Every Aug sees some sporadic movements, but this is becoming a little much. Wx in CAN must be getting pretty cool. And I noticed that there's still a big chunk of ice in the W Hudson Bay. That should have been gone 2-3 weeks ago. That being said, forecast has 80-85 for the weekend around here, so summer is still around, thankfully.
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1.70" of rain yesterday into the night (2.62" for the month). Much needed. Cool, foggy am. More showers possible later today. Then another stretch of dry wx with temps running 75-80.
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From 70 along the shoreline to 80 inland on a breezy SE wind. Nice day. Saw my 1st flock of CAN geese fly overhead, and the Chickadees are very active today. There's your sign! Summer months are in their closing chapters around here. Looks like 1-2" of rain tomorrow from the LP moving through. Need that. Been on the drier side lately.
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Summer 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Brian D replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Thought I'd post this here. Stratospheric H2O content is finally starting to normalize after the Hunga Tonga eruption in Jan 2022. That was an awesome eruption event. "Shot heard around the world" type event. Scientists have never had an opportunity to research this type of eruption before, so it was something new for them to observe over the last couple years, and the potential effects it had on global climate. Massive seawater injection well into the stratosphere. The excess water first spread throughout the S Hemisphere in 2022, then made its way into the N Hemisphere in 2023. Very cool stuff. Drying trend should continue through the rest of the year, and that means back to normal soon. -
Low 80's with dews around 60. Very nice day. Summer finely returned.
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0.70" of rain last night. It was a nice steady soaker. Very cool today, and tomorrow with highs hovering around 70, and low 50's in the am before summer returns this weekend with upper 70's-low 80's. Need to squeeze out more summer wx because it will fade fast in a couple weeks around here.
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Chihuahua chillin by the barrel stove
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New dataset available that goes back to 1845. I have a dataset that goes back a little further, as well. So with 2 sets, can post an avg from 1845-1849. That will be the new start year from now on. Very little difference overall, but thought it would be nice to repost July back to 1845.
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Chihuahua showed up for Dog Days
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Prelim data in for July, and we have another avg July in the books. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.
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After today, much better.
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CA front moving through the N with shwrs/stms. LP that I have noted is running a bit more N than I thought along the boundary, and coming in the W sub on Monday. That will affect the southern half of the sub Mon-Tues. So I was too slow on the N part, and too quick on the S part.
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Low 90's this afternoon with dews in the mid 50's to around 60. Hot, but bearable.
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Looking for temps in the upper 80's today, but with lower dews, thankfully. Same for tomorrow. Then seasonable wx returns.
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C WI between Madison & Rhinelander getting hammered with heavy rains, and a bit of hail. Very slow moving stuff. Not good.
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Getting robbed my way. Rain was moving in yesterday, and it all collapsed, and I ended up with gusty winds for about hr. Felt good tho, as it was muggy. Now this morning. getting the N fringes of some showers from LP moving through. Back to seasonable wx next week 75/55 with low dews. A.M.'s are going to feel chilly after this run of muggy, warm wx.
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Nice stm complex over C MN. Should see some type of action around supper time. Currently mid 80's with dews running mid 60's to around 70, so a nice, warm day, but not oppressive around my area. That'll change in a couple days with low 90's on tap, although dews shouldn't be too high, hopefully.
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Only ended up with 0.19" of rain yesterday. It ended up moving E over the Lake. Cloudy start to the day with some showers around. Should break into the low 80's later with the Sun coming out. Point showing 90+ come Fri on a light W wind, about the same on Sat, as well. That'll be miserable.
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Showers with a little thunder have blossomed over the W tip of the Lake, and am currently getting a nice rain. Have been keeping the windows shut during the day, and open at night, but the rain cooled air feels very nice. South Shore in Douglas county WI is currently under a flash flood warning. Complex is just sitting here, and expanding this morning.
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Lastly, for Oct, is Halloween. Looks like a strong front/system moving through bringing brisk weather behind. N/W areas will probably have a chilly evening for trick-or-treaters with some wet weather possible in the S/E areas. Looks to be moving rather quickly. Oct will be a month of variable patterns, so it's hard to get a read on how warm or cool it will get. Going with a near to above avg end.
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On Columbus Day, I'm looking for a front moving through with possible energy from the W riding along it in the S areas. It looks like HP will stay a little N. Mid Oct may see a more W/E flow, keeping things a little milder, and wet.
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As we enter Oct, we come to Child Health Day. Looks pretty nice under HP, with some cool am temps probable.
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Next is Constitution/Citizens Day. Looks like a cool, wet day with scattered showers in the N areas, and more organized weather in the S areas. Brisk weather moving in is what it looks like. On that note, Sept, in general has a much more Fallish feel this year than we have seen in recent years. 2020 was the last year we saw a cooler month that ended being near avg for the sub. Since 2015, Sept's have been rather warm.