Brian D
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Everything posted by Brian D
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About an inch of snow here as it winds down. Now the cold infiltration begins in a few hours.
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Basically the 6th-8th has lows running from the W to E bringing lots of snow and ice in the southern most part of our region. Then you have the LES nightmare going on, too. So yeah, there is plenty of action after an anemic Pt 1 of the season.
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I don't get into my methods. I keep that close. I'm not trying to BS anyone, just having fun with this hobby. Have been doing it off and on over the years. I don't charge anything for forecasts like some out there do. I try to be honest and if I blow it, I own up to it. Whatever you wish to think about what I do, or how good or bad I am at it, I'll leave up to you. Thanks for your interest, and if the forum wishes me to stop doing this, I'll respect their wishes.
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This needs watching. It may be a simple re-enforcing front with little fanfare as high pressure sinks into the plains, or energy from the W-SW riding up front could produce something significant in the Lakes. Edit: I replaced old map with new one. This was about what I was thinking my modelling method was indicating.
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When the polar bears are imby, snowin like hell in the south
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I think this is going last a bit longer overall now that I've looked more at my model, especially my way. A little reprieve in there but overall, pretty much the dead of winter. I did mention how really cold Feb looked in my forecast for the upcoming month . Looks like it'll pan out with big storms afterward like Valentines Day that I have noted. We shall see about that.
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Maybe a weenies wet valentine dream!! LOL
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No, it's my own creation. Sorry for the simple maps, tho. Not a graphics person. Just a simple paint program.
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And Btw, next on the list is around the 10th. Gonna look at that.
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Well, I hope you guys enjoy. My model did ok showing this system. Thought it had a better chance coming my way. Oh well, 3-6" of powder before the Arctic relocates is ok too. Snow pack good enough to handle the cold, which is a good thing. Go for it Cheese Heads and Polar Bears lol !
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Brief but potent. Should be the coldest of the season for me. -17F was from the last blast (colder -20's west of me). -20's with this one, again, and more widespread. Many days of -10 to -25 lows with 5 to -5 highs is pretty rough from past winters. This will be a short one. Like them like that.
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18z is showing what my model is suggesting. A clipper system zipping into the lakes. What it does for sure I haven't worked out. Keeping tabs on this one before it.
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18Z GFS back to what it was showing a few days ago. Energy moving in from the SW along frontal boundary.
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Different storm from this thread
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Looks good for my forecast.
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Storm threads will probably be popping up every other day(or 2) for a few weeks. Winter Pt 2 is gonna be fun to watch.
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Ended up with 4-6" imby.
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18z GFS and my model looking the same. What it does from there we shall see. Pretty typical tho that I get the frigid air while others get stormy wx this time of year.
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About what I figured for my town here on the shore of the big lake. A little more on the ridges. Good powder for the Lutsen slopes.
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GFS gets it right sometimes in the long range.
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Even I'll end up with some here on the shore of Lake Superior. Red dot my locale. Mainly LES along the high terrain, but I could pick up 3" of fluff down along the shore in town.
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Nope, it's my own creation.
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Made it down to -17F this morning. Coldest temp so far this season at my locale. Looking to rival that next month as the real thrust of winter hits as my forecast has been indicating.
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Storms, then cold(brutal at times), clippy, then storms, etc. A true winter month coming up.
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My modelling is suggesting a potential strong storm developing. A clash of air masses with this one is more typical of early spring. Strong ridging to the E and NW of the region will allow energy from the W to be funneled NE through the lakes. I might get a chance to have another blizzard from this system, or at least someone might, along with thunderstorms for others. Hope this one pans out. Have a week to see what happens for sure.
