Brian D

Thunder train last night. Storms rolling through one after the other. Very warm, and muggy on the SW flow ahead of the front. 2.3" at the arpt, and 1.57" here in town. Some svr weather put down hail (3" hail size was reported just west of Duluth). Tornado watch was out for a while, but nothing developed. Here in town, normal rain is 3.53" for the month, so closing fast with 2.88" and more rains coming early next week. Still well below normal for the year, tho, with 6-7" of deficit.

About 0.25" of rain early this morning (a little thunder mixed in too) with more on the way tonight. A very nice late summer day with temps in the upper 70's.

Call this one a bust. High pressure is going to move in and shunt the low pressure system to the south, instead of moving along the boundary ENE. "Day late, and a dollar short" with this one.

Looking ahead with my modelling method is very suggestive of more frequent arctic air intrusions throughout the winter than last year. I'm expecting a more normal type winter across the northern areas for sure.

One thing I've noticed is the lack of Canadian geese movement so far. Late August, some of the local flocks were moving into the local golf course as usual, but unlike last year, major movement has yet to start. Shows how pleasant the start of September has been here in the northern areas.

1.4" of rain at the arprt, 0.89" here in town last night. Much needed. A nice steady rain for a few hours. Lawn looks real good now. To bad its days are numbered. Fall kicks in hard in another week.

This is one of the reasons I posted my first snow map. Even my modelling method is suggesting some chilly weather in this time frame. BRR!

Made this map of the earliest recorded snowfalls for the snow season. You guys in the southern areas sure got hit good in mid Oct 1989. Cold N/NE wind slamming into Gulf air coming up from the south with an area of strengthening low pressure put down a good amount of snow for that time of year. https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1989/19891016-19891022.pdf A few of these totals are first day out of 2 day totals on the overall map.

August dense ranking for stations across the NC US (some stations still have outstanding reports). Max records avg around 80 readings per station, and high min records avg around 70 for reference. Looks like mostly near avg to well above with some near record to record readings this month. Chalk up another warm August.

Front moving in Saturday, with corresponding high, should push that nasty crap southward away from me. Had enough this summer.

Summer recap shows a very warm 2021. July was closer to average, but still a little warmer. Edit: Replaced with new baseline chart from 1981-2010 to 1901-2000 base.

Definitely a warm August for the region. Edit: Replaced with new baseline chart from 1981-2010 to 1901-2000 base.

Pretty good call for this weekend, except for the turning colder Sun into Mon part. Generally cool over the weekend with milder temps starting on Monday.

Under dense ranking, August will be tied 6th, and summer 11th. Dense ranking weights with the temps. Unlike standard method that weights between temps and years. Temps are more important to me, so dense ranking is my preferred system. I think MRCC cli-mate tool offers that option because others see its value, too. But, to each his own.

12z GFS showing the pattern I'm seeing for this time frame.

I'll work that up, and post it later this month, along with Christmas, and New Years.

I have worked up the rankings for June and July. August I'll post in a few days to let data submissions make it into the system. There are a few stations out there that still submit monthly reports instead of daily internet reports. The dense ranking method (data comes from MRCC cli-mate tool) ranks by each unique temp as the place holder, and the years associated with them. For June and July, the average number of monthly temps is around 80 for max, and 70 for high min (more ties). So you can, by the aforementioned numbers, see how far from average each station was during the month. For those lower ranked stations, I noted if they were top 20 on the cool side to highlight their significance. June was definitely a warm one.

Thought I'd post Labor Day's extremes for max temp. Think we're safe this year. BTW, my forecast for the upcoming weekend that I posted in the "Holiday Forecast" thread looks to be pretty close based on 12z GFS today.

Found the answer. Have to delete old ones. Reaching limit.

What's up with the big decrease in file attachment sizes? Went from well over 1M to 100kb. Not cool.

1.62" of rain yesterday. Total for the month is 2.45", which is an inch below normal. Greenwood fire is 14% contained now at 26,000 acres. Fire slowed quite a bit the last couple days with the cool, moist weather. Heavier rains yesterday were a big help. But today, dry, and breezy west winds could flame up portions of the fire.

Each IR sat frame shows wagons circling ever tighter. BOOM, there it is!!

I posted on page 23 a map of my track for this. I think Marsh Island get the official call. We shall see tomorrow. Poor folks down there. Last year was rough, too.

Radar is lit up this evening. Come on RAIN!! Have had a good drenching so far, but need more. Heavy weather in S MN and to the SW of there. Maybe some tornadoes.

Don't remember, but it was a long while back.