Brian D

Just took a look at the weekend (Sat & Sun). That could be a messy one for our region.

30 and breezy with snow showers/flurries. Mid 20's away from the lake in the Arrowhead region. Nothing out of the ordinary here. Just a little taste of winter we normally get this time of year. But I guess for you guys in the southern areas, this is more like mid winterish stuff.

I still see shit to some degree during the 3 day period I have posted. Models don't really know what to do with it. From a pop fart to Montezuma's revenge is typical of them.

A windy day here. Winds of 15-25 mph, gusts up to 35 mph out of the west. Temp around 40 right now, but should be on its way down soon as colder air filters into the area. Gale warnings out for the big lake. Heater will be kicking in a bit more today, as the wind always strips the heat from the house much quicker than calmer weather.

2-4" of snow around my area. About 2" here in town. First accumulating snow here in town for the start of the snow season. Kinda surprised, figured it would be a more south, and west deal, but I ended up on the north edge. But it will all be gone in a couple days as temps will be running upper 30's to low 40's this week.

Light snow here this evening. A small amount accumulating. Melting on the roads. Could have 1", possibly 2" by later tonight.

Light snow showers moving through now. Nothing sticking tho. Should have a chance at snow here this weekend, but most of that looks to be just to my south.

06 GFS showing about what I'm looking for during this time frame. I have the low a little more north, so we shall see how this goes.

Ended up with 2.38" of rain here in town at the coop station with 3.16" at another site in town. But the biggest surprise was the rain totals along the shore here. Up to 6" of rain! Tofte had 5.75". Incredible! Just as much rain as snow.

Figured there would be tornadoes, just never looked that hard to find out. The map for the 12th showed a note of "Colder 20 - 60 dF or more" change from previous days temps in the southern region. That's a serious drop to be sure.

Nearly 2" of rain here. Been a steady soaker for a good 12 hours, and it's still raining. Looks like the snow has been staying along the border over into NC MN. Rain is changing to snow now across the the Iron Range, and even down near the head of the Lake outside of Duluth. Should see a change over for the area as a whole later today. Nature getting a much needed drink, and rivers back in action.

I was a day behind on my forecast. I expected today's weather for Vet's Day. Close call.

Wet weather starting to move into the area. Looks like a nasty night, and day tomorrow. Might be some snow in the higher terrain, but it will be more of a slush. Ground still warm, and temps will be just around freezing. Better chance of good snow totals near the border, and in the NC MN region, as temps will end up colder quicker in those areas. Just a typical early season slop fest.

Here's the Vets day record max and low max temps. 1911 stood out has it has max records in MO up to MI, and low max records in the Plains. Here's the wx maps for that time. System moving NE bombs out in the Lakes. Serious temp gradient. Interesting that we have something similar going to happen this year, just not as extreme as back then.

GFS is aggressive in the long range. Temps, precip, etc. Just the pattern I'm looking at, and it's close to the set up I'm seeing with my forecast method around T-Day as per my maps. That's why I put it up. Would be something, tho, if it did turn out that aggressive.

12z GFS is picking up on the pattern for this time frame that I'm seeing. Going to be a very interesting one.

Duluth NWS office discussion on this upcoming system. Much more conservative on snow total potential than GFS keeps showing. Just a sloppy mess on tap, but you never know, just a little bit more cold air, and you have a heavy snow event. Getting more interesting. Initial precipitation associated with this feature should move into the area on Wednesday as warm air advection overspreads the western Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, much of our region will reside in a couplet-jet configuration, as a deep trough advances east across the central Plains and upper ridging prevails over eastern Canada. These features, combined with the aforementioned trough axis, will lead to low pressure development across the lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday night with nearly all global solutions now showing this feature lifting north to western Lake Superior by 00z Friday. After this, models show the low stalling and occluding as we head into the start of next weekend. Previously mentioned rain on Wednesday will change to a rain/snow mix by Wednesday night with this trend continuing through Friday before the rain/snow mix eventually turns to all snow Friday night as cooler air is drawn southward with time. It`s at this point where minor accumulations will be possible across portions of northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with lake effect snow showers persisting the upcoming weekend for South Shore locations. Additional accumulations will be possible, however it`s still too early to get excited simply based on the large distance into the forecast period. What does seem certain is that our region will finally have it`s first taste of winter as we head into the late work week and upcoming weekend.

It'll be mainly rain/mix for me. Warm air being funneled northward, along with warmer lake waters. Typical this time of year for the shoreline. The ridges will pick some wet snow. I could see some backside snows, as the wind turns N/NW. Models really want to lay down some good snow totals across the Northland, tho.

Here's Duluth's 2 day snow totals between Nov 1-15. The above event would be a rare one like the Halloween event of 1991 for early snow season. 32.6 1991-11-01 1991-11-02 28.3 1991-10-31 1991-11-01 13.9 1992-11-02 1992-11-03 12.2 1956-11-14 1956-11-15 11.9 1956-11-15 1956-11-16 10.9 2010-11-13 2010-11-14 9.8 2000-11-12 2000-11-13 9.6 1992-11-01 1992-11-02 8.8 1955-11-15 1955-11-16 8.7 2020-11-14 2020-11-15 8.6 1991-11-02 1991-11-03 8.4 1919-11-05 1919-11-06 8.2 1998-11-09 1998-11-10 8.1 1993-11-04 1993-11-05 8.0 2014-11-10 2014-11-11 These are 1 day totals. 24.1 1991-11-01 1991-11-01 11.1 1956-11-15 1956-11-15 8.6 1992-11-02 1992-11-02 8.5 1991-11-02 1991-11-02 7.3 2020-11-10 2020-11-10 7.2 1998-11-10 1998-11-10 7.1 2010-11-13 2010-11-13 6.7 2000-11-12 2000-11-12 6.3 1993-11-04 1993-11-04 6.1 2003-11-04 2003-11-04 6.0 1920-11-08 1920-11-08 5.5 1996-11-15 1996-11-15 5.3 1936-11-06 1936-11-06 5.3 1992-11-03 1992-11-03 5.2 2020-11-15 2020-11-15

GFS sure likes the bomb over my area on Vets Day. Kitchen sink might be there too. LOL. I do have a system moving in, tho, in my Holiday Forecast thread with a southern low. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Here's the Oct chart, and rankings by max, and high min. Fifth place overall since 1850. Max averages were very respectable over parts of the region, with high min averages seeing quite a few near records/records, especially in the eastern areas. Very impressive.

Quite a few people don't like it. Preparation is key, but it still does have a game taste. Their main diet during the last couple months before being harvested really can show up in the flavor. Corn fed deer are really good. Same with grouse. They taste better early in season, rather than later after the greens/berries are gone. They switch to more tree buds/cones.

Highs around here this weekend looking to be in the mid 50's. That's running about 10-15 dF above normal. Excellent start to deer season, which starts Saturday morning. Should be a strong harvest.

Jan-Oct top 5 avg temp for Duluth(threadex record). Used MRCC cli-mate tool. 1878 48.2 2012 48.0 1931 47.2 2021 47.0 1998 46.9

Two Harbors coop station has this year at 5th (dense rank) warmest avg temp. 1963 55.8 1920 52.8 1931 52.0 1947 51.8 2021 51.7 Duluth is tied for 6th warmest. 1963 55.9 1900 53.5 1947 52.3 1920 51.6 1931 50.9 1879 50.9 2021 50.7 1924 50.7