Brian D

Prelim data coming in, and chalk up another very warm Sept, driven by the strong + anoms in the W Sub. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

Chilly days, and nights now with a freeze warning for tomorrow a.m. in NE MN. That should be the last issuance for us. N WI still may get one yet, but growing season is over around here.

Pretty decent call here.

My 2nd great grandson was born yesterday. 9lb 11oz 22 1/4" long. Beefy kid. First one was 9lb 7oz 21 3/4" from another granddaughter back in early June. Those girls make some big kids.

Just looking at my own modelling method, I'd agree with those models to some degree. I'm seeing patterns favorable for near avg - much above temps for the 2nd half of Oct into the 1st half of Nov. So we'll shall see how that pans.

Seasonable temps with scattered shwrs, and windy conditions yesterday turning pretty chilly today. It's midday, and only in the upper 40's right now, and my furnace is running a bit more. NW winds creating a gravity wave with LER over the big lake. Gravity waves are typical along the shoreline with the terrain we have.

Nice and toasty to end Sept, and start Oct. Feels very nice, but like all things good, back to seasonable to cooler conditions in a few days, just like when last month started off.

That was a bust. Only 0.12", but that's ok. We've had a good month for precip. 7.95" (3.53" avg). Temps ended up warm for the month with +1 on the max, and +6 on the min. Time correction would affect the min the most being the TH co-op is an a.m. stn now. That would be around ~+1 correction for this month. I've figured out TOB (time of observation bias) corrections before many times. A little time consuming. Colder months generally see a +1-2 correction in mins, and +0.5-1 in max. This type of correction is a part of the "milk plant" corrections in various datasets. They have a formula they use depending on lat/long, and month, and the same value is used each respective month every year. It's an avg calculated over many years. Actual TOB values for a given month every year are quite variable, as the wx patterns tend to be a little different. I've spent many hours of research doing these calculations just to see how an actual TOB, instead of avg TOB, affects a stn record. Interesting research. Changing reporting times, especially from pm to am, does affect their trends significantly. And most stns have switched from pm to am now. Anyone on the sub a co-op observer? Or has been? If anyone is interested in doing that for a local co-op site, and you know the report time, find the nearest hourly stn (whether arpt, or PWS), and get the midnight-midnight monthly max avg, and min avg. And then get the avg between the report time of your co-op. 7 am is TH co-op's time, so I get the max-min each day between 7am using the same mid-mid hourly dataset, then avg that data for the month. Subtract 7am max avg from midnight max avg, and the same with min. The difference will be the correction to your co-op data. If the 7 am value is less, that will be a + correction (typical of am stns), and if it is more, that will be a - correction (typical of pm stns). Because PWS data online is fairly robust now, try this with 2-3 stns around the co-op to get a good idea of the TOB correction. If you want to do longer research, it gets a little hairy with DST in the past. That makes a big difference. You need to know when it starts, and ends each year, and if you start, say in 1948, you'll need to know when DST comes into effect at that arpt site. Each state is different. DST issues have been, and still are an issue. And if you do start way back then, data is top hr only until the 90's-2000's. To stay consistent, and keep the amount of data your working with reasonable, stay top hr only to the present. The difference is small with sub hr data in the mix. And just a side note, the 1960's data is 3hr reporting times, so you can't really use that decade. At least that was what I ran into a few years back. Might be different now. Get data here. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps-and-geospatial-products Under "Climate Monitoring", select "hourly and sub hourly". A map will come up. Find your station with search (easiest), or zoom in the map. Left side panel will have "Hourly Global" checked at the top. Click the wrench icon, and a dialog box will show on map. Select rectangle, or polygon for your highlighter. Over the stn(s) you wish to select, left click, hold, and highlight. Release, and the stn(s) you've selected will appear on the left side. Check the box(es), and choose "add to cart" at the bottom. New tab will open with yearly data you can download in csv. Have fun A good read on the TOB topic is here. https://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/MP/ISWSMP-81.pdf

Shwrs/stms on the way this morning. Flood watch out tonight as another 2" of rain possible. Ground is soaked now, and heavier downpours will likely run off more quickly. Didn't take long to go from parched to swamped.

Interesting about flamingos going rogue. Reminds me of the instances up my way when we've had mountain lion sightings, and even a black panther once. Critters going rogue for whatever reason isn't uncommon as far as I'm concerned. They can travel long distances in a short period of time. Now if they take up residence, or keep migrating back, then that is a different issue (CC could be one of them). Whitetail deer have been radio collared, and tracked here in MN. Sometimes they have made their way all the way over to the UP in just a a couple weeks. Critters move around all the time. I'll bet if one did some intense research into old paper articles, we would find more of these instances. Just saying.

Howdy neighbor Yeah, some very nice wx on tap.

From Fri pm - Mon pm 4.64" of rain. Very wet weekend around here. 7.79" (3.53" avg) for Sept so far. YTD 23.84" (24.95" avg), so we have nearly closed the gap from the dry spell this summer. Very glad it came slowly, and soaked in really good. Some minor flooding, so no big deal there. The lawn hasn't looked this good since early summer. Bright, sunny day today, with a stiff E wind. Sun sure feels nice after such a gloomy stretch.

4.26" recorded so far at TH co-op for this event, and more showers moving through this morning. Drier conditions are pretty much gone now in NE MN.

Been raining pretty steady since yesterday. ~3.5+" so far since Friday pm, and still coming down. I'll take the gloomy wx, as we really needed this. There is a flood warning between here, and Duluth until later this evening.

Fog yesterday burned off midday then came back in the eve. Showers started then too. Off, n on showers have produced approx 3/4" so far. Looking at the first + anoms in precip since early Spring. Roommate took his girlfriend up the shore this week. Maples are starting to peak right now. Maple ridges looking very nice.

Much needed. Hope it pans out.

Very nice, warm day on tap with upper 70's - low 80's. 70's tomorrow , too, as we end astro summer (astro fall starts just after midnight on Sat the 23rd this year 02:50 EDT, 01:50 CDT I believe). Looking forward to more rain potential this weekend. Strong east winds may retard some of that during the day here close to the lake with cooler, dry air, and slightly higher pressures.

Nice wx with very heavy geese movement. Looking at our local paper, and Two Harbors is getting the Ok for a twice yearly goose hunt at our local airport. They get pretty thick there, and interfere with the operations. Golf course is another place, but can't hunt that. Nothing like playing through goose sh*t. LOL Back in my Army days stationed in NJ, our parade field was a big stop for CA geese. The field would be full of crap, and SGT's love to have us do PT in that. A**holes. Grr!

Pretty good call here.

0.35" in the bucket yesterday. 3.12" (3.53" Sept avg) for the month so far. 65-70 temps, too, so was a nice day.

Being a little on the drier side this summer has probably helped for a little push to an earlier color. The northern areas have done a little better with precip, so not as bad as the south end of the region here. Drier conditions tend to to dull the colors a bit, but could be fine up that way.

Will 2nd that. Happening here today. After a little bit of chilly wx here, today feels nice, and rain moving in later.

Another chilly top ten a.m., but not quite as cold as yesterday for some spots. Here in town 42 (tied 7th) with 34 at the arpt. Duluth was 40 (tied 9th), Hibbing 29 (tied 4th), I-Falls 37 (tied 10th). Warming up fast with S winds. Could break 70 here in town, but upper 60's is more likely with a chance of rain tonight. Very nice Fall day. As a side note, I don't use the standard method of ranking that is commonly used (year/temp). Instead I use the dense rank method that ranks by temps. IMHO, it's a better way of ranking for comparison of past temps to now. MRCC gives std, dense, and ordinal methods when you look for rank. Very nice.

Top ten lows this morning. Made it to 42 (tied 10th) here in town with 36 at the arpt. Duluth was 35 (tied 6th). Hibbing was 27 (2nd). Brainerd was 37 (tied 7th). I-Falls was 31 (tied 5th). Chilly morning across the Northland.

1.10" of rain yesterday. Was a cloudy, cool, wet day. 2.67" (3.53" Sept avg) for the month so far, so looking good Now it'll slowly clear off today for our first frost potential away from the lake tomorrow morning.