IronTy

Short pump?

That's basically how my retirement has gone so far. Minus the final interview and budget woes and whatever.

Bring it!

That's fine with me. I hate the cold M/A/M weather of late. DJF is winter. After that I'm all about warm...minus drought of course.

I agree. Sitting on the front porch with my pup it feels like early May.

The puppy index says coming. Animals know this shit, don't question it.

So should I bring the petunias and geraniums inside?

Good to see a few bowling balls in the 500 anoms, even if a bit north of what we'd like to see. I don't see any petunia killers though. If anything this warm weather today has given them more strength and boldness. In a few weeks from now the sun angle will be so high they'll probably bolt and go to seed...

18Z to the rescue with a Christmas miracle!

JB just posted "delayed not denied". This is not a good sign.

Came across this post from a met named PBSwxPABlueRdige1310 on the WB forums. He's been a pretty good poster over the years and I always appreciate his explanations. It is a couple days old by now and I hope he does not mind me posting it here: --------- The ridge is being tamped down now, though it appears temporary. I've been amazed at the lack of phasing over the past 6 weeks between branches of the jet. The low in the eastern Gulf will be booted out and bring rain/ice to SE NH and snow further north. I don't actually think what's happening aloft is all that complicated. As of now and for much of the past few weeks, the deep troughing over BC/Yukon/NW Territories, to along and off the West Coast is - I believe - due to the anomalous cold water in the NE Pacific (in the order of 6-10F below 30-year climo). This is a powerful driver in North America and it's very, very hard not to have a robust counter to that troughing out east. Ridging over the south-central and SE is the classic response. What we don't yet know is what will happen in a week or two. I still maintain that if the ridging can move a bit east to over mainland Alaska into NW Canada (and not over the Aleutians) then the persistent Arctic air over NW Canada will want to drain into the northern/central U.S. Meanwhile, the Greenland/Baffin Bay ridging is established now. That's a big change from a week ago when low heights were over that geographic area. However, all global ensembles show that ridging building heights further south into Hudson/James Bay in a week to two weeks. IF...IF that happens, then I believe it will be very difficult to sustain the pattern as we currently see it. The cold air will be forced to drain further south and press east. How exactly that transpires will depend on how much energy aloft is ejected out of the Western U.S. trough, and what happens upstream in AK...eastern Pacific. Without a +PNA ridge, indeed, the outcome for the U.S. East/Midwest is much less predictable. Also of note, I've watched very warm, dry air build and move off the Mexican plateau and off the NM/CO mountains in this stream flow. That warm air has to be reckoned with until the heights build further south in NE Canada and that warm air can be suppressed by the weight of the pressing cold. It looks to be like a mild to chilly outcome with high variability day-to day for the Mid-Atlantic to Lower Great Lakes over the next 7 to possibly 10 days, before a colder regime can take over. I would expect more wild swings and shifts in global modeling, especially in operation runs for the forseeable future, especially given building ridging in Greenland and over western AK. The models notoriously don't like high-latitude ridging, for it is anomalous. Each of these perturbations in the stream flow will be hard to predict and the outcomes quite volatile with precipitation type, placement, and intensity, until further notice. The highest confidence right now is for a cold NW and northern Rockies into MN/ND with frequent snow in the west-facing mountain west, especially, CA/NV/WA/ID/MT/UT...western CO/western WY. I would expect a much colder regime to penetrate the Mid-Atlantic/Midwest/southern Great Lakes very late this year or early in 2022. It's still my expectation that another cold surge, probably more intense, will visit late winter. The idea - or notion - that the current regime holds for two or three months and it's mild all winter in these areas is not based in any sound meteorological data that I'm looking at.

Yeah, 100% suckage all winter long.

Idk, I'll give him more credit for really hammering it home and commiting to it 100 percent. One post woulda been meh. 100 posts and you have to wonder...what is his secret sauce?

220, 221..whatever it takes..come on man that shoulda been a strong clue I was being sarcastic. Kids these days.

JB was all over this in a recent post but fortunately he didn't explain it either. He's usually pretty good about explaining things in his premium members videos (nothing like his lame tweets). Again, I give him a lot of shit but he's usually pretty good in his actual videos vs. lame tweets.

45 days, 45 hours...220, 221...whatever it takes...basically the same thing.

It does seem that significant pattern changes are often ushered in by some monster storm...hopefully this evolves appropriately. I still believe that there has to be some snap back if only because it's so statistically unlikely that we could run the entire winter with anomalies this far above average. There has to be some balancing out and the longer we stay this warm the more instense the snap back needs to be. Of course that's just statistics and not considering the organic nature of weather. I suppose the entire winter could torch and then we snap back to extreme cold in march or april when it's unwanted, we seem to do that pretty well.

It is a pretty awesome comma

Good analysis. He didn't go into any detail on it so I don't how he's factoring the influence of the gulf +SSTs into his thinking. How do you square the anomalously warm gulf waters with the past 3-4 summers where we've had relatively moderate high temps and extensive precip? I figured we'd be experiencing massive Bermuda highs and extreme heat and drought but clearly I'm wrong.

Does that light in the storm guy still post? I searched the web but couldn't find anything. ETA - nvm I found him. Website doesn't appear to have been updated for this winter. Bummer, I liked him too.

I went and listened to the noted passage from JB and he was referring to the abnormally warm gulf waters similar to you. I could sense from his voice that it was painful for him to admit it. Will JB become an AGW convert? Stay tuned...

You gotta look at the kuchera maps, much more accurate than the standard 10:1.

The big ones are sniffed out early.

Yeah that's the guy. Too bad he stopped posting.

Does anybody remember the name of the weather blog by that guy who basically hated the world and lamented twitter weenies all the time in his posts? He had homer simpson as his avatar I think. He used to post good stuff on his website but I totally forgot what the name of it was.