IronTy

Just another November night with the AC on, nothing abnormal here....

I asked chatgpt what it thought about November to Surrender and it responded November Surrender November stirs in strange disguise, as amber leaves brush summer skies. Where frost should cling to dawn’s soft breath, a warmer wind denies its death. Bare trees wear gold but hold their green, caught in a warmth they’ve rarely seen. Sun lingers where the chill should play, and summer whispers: “I’ll not stray.” Sweaters lie folded, waiting still, as balmy airs defy the chill. Scarves and coats stay packed away, while autumn yields to skies of May. November leans on summer's shoulder, its crisp edge softened, growing bolder. So let it be—a strange delight— to hold this warmth through autumn’s flight.

I want it warm and dry for the Surrender in November so that the bottom falls out on temps just in time for a December to Remember.

I remember that December. I was in college up in Flint, MI and it was the night before my Digitals 2 final and Flint got a historic blizzard with over a foot of snow. We played football all night in the snow instead of studying but the next day the entire city was shut down and they canceled the final exam and project presentation and just gave everybody the grade we had at the time as our final class grade for the semester.

The view from IronTy's MTN chalet says leaf season is over on the MTN top near deep Creek.

SoMD it looks to be in the 0-2% region...so while NC might be wet, the Chesapeake bay area definitely isn't. Hopefully the CPC is right in their outlook and we get some big noreasters whether rain or snow to reverse things.

How come the drought monitor site doesn't have SoMD as a more severe drought? According to the climate reanalysis we're basically ground zero for the neg DFN on rainfall in the region.

I made a snow fort on my driveway that winter so it must've been half way decent. I also think we had a frigid snow that year with crazy ratios.

Hopefully everybody's blood pressure med subscriptions are topped up.

It's not possible for this winter to be worse than last winter so I'm hopeful. Even a single snow squall will be more snow than last winter and if it's torch all winter then at least I'll save on heating costs. Man how I miss a strong now squall or a heavy snow shower. Swear it's been years since I've seen one of those.

Wow that escalated quickly . Do the models take into account torsional interactions from skimming so close to the Yucatan?

Just read 150mph+ winds per NHC....almost at cat 7.

Two nights ago I took some L-Theanine before bed which usually gives me vivid dreams and this was no exception. In my dream this January there is a noreaster forecast, but instead of coming from the SE it originates in Michigan and moves SE towards us. Not sure why that's called a noreaster in my dream but stay with me. I'm at work checking the WJLA weather forecast site and notice a blizzard warning. So I click the link and the forecast is for 65-85" of snow from the storm! It's not all good news - I log into WB and check the GFS and see we're right on the edge of the R/S line and am really concerned we won't see that much snow. In the dream my engineer coworkers all tell me not to worry because the pattern should produce at least a 40" storm. I try to be optimistic but am still bummed it won't be 80". At that time my dog woke me up because he ate something he shouldn't have and had the shits all night so I never got to live through the storm in my dream. Can't even get dream snow around here anymore.

Looks like mostly blue skies down here finally.

Still raining out. WTOP said 11 straight days now.

Somebody make the melancholy weather stop please!!!

I'm up camping on the mountain at 3k feet at DCL and it's very windy and rainy. It was so windy that when I was hiking around walking the dog it blew my heavy composite rocking chair right into my fire pit and melted the top of it. Having a hard time falling asleep in the tent with the freight train wind going over the mountain. Really need that cabin to be finished. HVAC was installed this week so we're getting closer.

That was when we were in a drought and needed rain. Now that we're all getting sick of gloom and rain the euro is bound to verify when predicting more. If anything the amounts will over-verify.

Eyewall is tightening up. Cat 7 confirmed.

JB says it has 15hrs and rapid intensification has just started. So I'd say a cat 7 call is the safe play.

At least today has bright clouds to break up the dark cloudy monotony of the past week. Still feels gross out though. All the solid wood doors in my house seem like they're expanded and no longer close properly due to the humidity.

At ease. I still got a good feeling this winter is going to surprise to the upside.

Man it sounds like the russkies are closing in on my town, really deep bass thunder going on. Or we're already at war and I just haven't read about it yet.

On our back stoop smoking a cigar at our house up in Bloomingdale and lots of thunder/lightning just.to the NW but nothing here yet.

I can already see the twitter headlines... ALEET!!!! STRONG FALL FRONTS FORECAST AT h384 ON THE GFS!!!!