csnavywx

Thanks for that. Yeah, the paleoclimate record suggests most of the risk is loaded into the right tail and the PDF of ECS isn't static either, with a minimum ECS value likely where most interglacials (including this one during preindustrial times) end up.

Still just a forecast at this point, but yeah, not a particularly welcome one on either the EC or the GFS.

To be 100% fair, we can hope for a reversal in the cloud cover trend -- that would do it in principle. Specifically low-mid level clouds. (High clouds increasing wouldn't be a good thing.) Perhaps there's some unknown transient climate response for that. However, we've been going the wrong way for some time on that particular trend.

Not much. Saturation vapor pressure increases non-linearly with temperature. So do vapor pressure deficits. Intensifying drought and floods.

Yeah, nice thermocline flattener. Next set of WWBs should actually be strong enough to invert the thermocline slope and start the appearance of significant negative anomalies W of 180.

No freeze here yet and no rain either. Even clouds seem hard to come by lately.

Bone dry lately. Well below average in Sep and only picked up 0.46" here in Oct. Nov. so far is a 0 with little in the forecast.

https://staff.cgd.ucar.edu/cdeser/docs/hwang.anthro_aerosols_persistent_lanina.oct23.pdf Paper link. Would go quite a long ways in explaining why La Nina and trade wind strength has been persistent. Seems to suggest that this is a fast (transient) response and that the slow response is in the opposite direction. Interestingly the model experiment in the paper seems to suggest the fast response in the real world peaks this decade and then the slow response kicks in, reversing the trend. Overall, not great news as this slants the table more towards higher sensitivities with the current trend only being a transient braking mechanism on warming.

Hansen not the only one sniffing out higher ECS. @bluewave @chubbs @bdgwx Timestamped for the appropriate part of the talk.

Am I the only one that read that Webb tweet completely differently?

Here's the EF-scale proposal for damage indicators: https://www.depts.ttu.edu/nwi/Pubs/FScale/EFScale.pdf Some pretty widespread Cat3+ damage (trees snapped including some palms, partially debarked). Curtain/interior walls suffering partial to complete failure in high rises. Some of them you can just see all the way through.

Looks like an OKW was generated and the warm pool is on the move. The arrival of better westerly anomalies after the monsoon season ended was expected. Probably going to take a couple weeks for that to start to be felt further east though.

https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/acapulco-condesa/ Last webcam I can find still running. Pitch black though. All power lost nearby about 10m ago. All it is picking up is the occasional lightning flash from the eyewall.

Absolutely wild watching power flashes mixed with eyewall lightning as the core approaches.

Seeing power flashes occasionally on https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/acapulco-panoramica/ Dreams resort still up: Bahía de Acapulco en vivo, Acapulco - Webcams de México (webcamsdemexico.com)

Yeah, getting knocked offline one by one here. Dreams resort still going strong.

Notable increase in noise on the first resort webcam in the last 10m.

https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/playa-de-acapulco/ https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/bahia-de-acapulco/ Couple of webcams overlooking the bay.

Needs to plow due N to spare the worst damage at this point. Last second left turn (aka NHC track) would actually be a huge negative.

https://essopenarchive.org/users/304243/articles/657090-long-term-surface-impact-of-hunga-tonga-hunga-ha-apai-like-stratospheric-water-vapor-injection I believe this was a topic of discussion back in May ITT. Global effects small, but regionally could have an impact.

Tonga paper had a pretty sizable regional ++ ridging tendency in this area in model years 2-7. Might be a player here.

Still time for recovery, yes. Just not a great start. Pattern gets better in the last 7-10 days of the month, but not looking like an upper 50% type of year right now.

+IOD response feeling left out of this conversation (note these are for Nov/Dec): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00328-z

Lmfao. Crushed it. Ended at 0.17 above this. Legit shot of not only smashing Feb. 16 but also printing the first 1.5C in the GISS data set.

Of course there's gonna be a competition and emotions. Snow is on the line here. More valuable than cocaine on this board. Has been for 20+ years (here+eastern).