csnavywx

One issue I do see is that the timeseries is a bit shorter than I'd like. What would this method look like in the timespan of something like '97 - '04? One would expect the land sink in '97 to be near zero as well (due to the massive Indonesian peat fires). Seems like the slinky is weighted more towards increasing net respiration in the last two big Ninos over fire events like this, but I'd like to be sure.

This goes for you too, @PFizz since you so love to drop in tag people on the issue. Intellectual cowardice and laziness on full display.

Back in the real world. Something I've been following closely over the past few years, finally getting some data on recent land sink trends: https://x.com/ciais_philippe/status/1813909550891983318

Stop giving him engagement. There is no scenario under which he would consider his hypothesis falsified. He's admitted this. It's now an article of faith by default. Discussing will only make him dig in harder.

If it gets its act together overnight and into tomorrow morning, then this may become relevant:

Land-disrupted TC cores like this are almost always tougher to spin back up in the early stages. Concur with Webb here -- inertial stability is a barrier. Likely going to take until the shear magnitude drops <10 kt and the vector aligns with the track. Last 24 hours before landfall looks very good environmentally, but has a lot of work to do before it can truly take advantage of that. A good signal marker will prob be when that burst pattern starts wrapping upshear.

Looks like we're getting that. Lots of surface darkening and blue melt ponds showing up in the past week on Worldview.

He can repeat it all he wants. He was wrong about the Saharan dust last year and, imo is wrong to downplay NH shipping aerosols. It's still a point of contention and declaring it doesn't make it so. Much respect to Mike, who helped push the issue into the mainstream in the first place and went a bit out on the limb in the 90s and took an avalanche of unjustified shit for it from deniers. Methinks that's made him more conservative in general. I can't say I blame him given all of the nasty stuff that's happened. But definitely less likely to take risks and make a gutsy call.

Got a full break out here and had a gorgeous display. The most visible part was a green curtain/ray/glow but there was faint pink/purple emission over about half the sky. Will post the photos we got here tomorrow. Also got to see a shooting star during the last few photos. Really special night.

Also puts nail in coffin for any ECS of ~2 or less. Hell I'd be sweating bullets if my *TCR* estimate was 2 or less at this point.

No question 2023 outperformed. Now curious to see how far we re-trace this year and next. A good strong Nina would put it to the test and kind of kill off lingering doubts if there is acceleration.

Ya'll are wasting your time. He's already admitted he doesn't have any conditions under which he would change his mind -- so anything you use will simply reinforce the dissonance.

Ditto. Feels like I'm already living in South Carolina the last few years. Can't keep my friggin daffodils in the ground past the end of Jan since '21.

The same people who top-called Antarctica 8 years ago are now pivoting to top calling the Arctic now. I look forward to your weenie tag tears. Keep short selling that temp graph and keep getting your face ripped off.

Looked to me on IR like it got above the tropopause briefly. Total emission just not enough to move the dial very much though. Ironically the bigger movers lately (besides HT WV injection) have been big pyroCB events. The '19/'20 Aus fires esp but the summer Canadian fires last year were no slouch either.

Yeah, don't think I'd put too much stock in a full on torch here yet. I was totally ready for one last winter with a strong/super EP Nino dominating. With the STJ weakened under a strong Nina, the real player will be the AO/NAO and a strong N-S gradient. It's just a question of where that gradient wants to set up.

About 0.5Tg of SO2 so far. Not enough to be important to climate on its own. About 2-3% of Pinatubo's numbers.

https://twitter.com/airesEO/status/1780839755011518889/video/1

Weird that they classify those two periods as triple dips. 73-76 looks like a bog standard double dip to me (with a cold neutral phase in between). Does 98-01 qualify either? The 3rd "event" is just two < -0.5 trimonthlies. Pretty sure you need three here to officially qualify but I could be misremembering. 1908-11 or 1890s looks like the last time we had one.

Yes, thank you. Corrected it.

The sun was 0.6-0.7% dimmer 65 million years ago. You don't need as much CO2 for a given temperature this time around. Antarctica glaciated around 650ppm, but my guess is that due to solar luminosity increases, you'd only need around 550-600 to deglaciate it this time around. Humans do not appreciate just how late in the game we showed up and how lucky we are for CO2 to be as (relatively) low as it is now. Another 200-300m years and this planet is going to be a permanent hothouse. Edit: To correct "brighter" to "dimmer" as intended.

Sweet. Best of luck to ya and send us pics, man!

I think I'd avoid IL altogether at this point. 250mb jet position and shared energy area is a dead ringer for getting washed out by thicker jet cirrus. Guidance has just started picking up on it and now dprog/dt is starting to trend the wrong way. That shit will come in fast and you won't have time to reposition adequately. It'll look fine in the morning and by lunch, you'll be screwed.

Honestly, I'm afraid it's largely going to be a shitshow. There will be a few places that don't have any problems, but this is par for the course for April climo. The best one was always probably going to be Aug '17, though. The areas that *look* like the best (near STL/Carbondale) probably won't be because of thicker jet cirrus moving in at the last minute (that isn't being well forecast) and the little room you get to maneuver in IN/OH inside the dry slot will be crowded as fuck because everywhere else isn't great. Get too far east in OH and you're dealing with stratocu. Try to avoid it altogether and head to ME and you're running into a massive fresh (but melting) snowpack and less than stellar road network, and crowded too as most of the cities down south empty out to head there.

Cold core spring upper lows are the best. Need very little lift and instability to get them to work their magic and they usually produce strong winds and small hail with ease.