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csnavywx

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Everything posted by csnavywx

  1. csnavywx
    Crushing it again next week with temps 10-20C above normal above across a big swath of the Arctic Ocean. Really eating into Freezing Degree Day totals and making it tough to thicken that ice up. If this keeps it up (again) we're gonna have some serious spring thickness problems when it comes time for maximum in March.
  2. csnavywx
    This is the latest I've seen the ESS stay open like this. We're now 400k+ below the previous record on extent.
  3. csnavywx
    The mean spring thickness needs to drop to around 1.7 to 1.8m in order to melt out regularly during the summer. Obviously a warm summer helps, but that starting thickness is quite important (as we saw this year).
  4. csnavywx
    Edit: Chubbs beat me to it. AMSR was -145 and shadow CT was -170 yesterday.
  5. csnavywx
    Probably surface pond re-freeze. The upcoming pattern features a +3-4SD ridge (570-582 dam) over the CAB and a -2SD low near the Kara, so the upcoming week should feature some significant late losses. It may be enough to lock a 2nd place finish, but we'll see.
  6. csnavywx
    To finish 2nd, shadow CT needs to drop 326k from its current readings. (It would need 996k for 1st.) The next few days look fairly cold and stormy, but the EPS shows conditions favorable for melt from D5 onwards. As weak as the remnant ESS arm of the pack is at the moment, I would expect almost all (if not entirely all) of that part to melt off. The Laptev arm isn't looking too hot either, but it's late enough that it'll probably survive in some fashion. At this time, a solid 2nd place finish looks good. Pretty remarkable, considering the vast majority of the summer remained colder than normal.
  7. csnavywx
    Yeah, you're right about that. It was below normal, but I would've figured it ended up colder with all of the cloud cover we had. July 2013 and July 2016 look similarly cold on NCAR, but with different spatial patterns:
  8. csnavywx
    Yeah, really goes to show how important future wintertime temps will be in determining when we go ice-free. Last winter was so atrocious that even a good summer pattern had a hard time saving it.
  9. csnavywx
    Not that I know of. Not sure it would do much good, because MOST of the current "deal" is nothing but brackets. Any country can dispute any part of the text for any reason by requesting to put brackets around it.
  10. csnavywx
    Yeah, and this is the bracketed piece of crap the negotiators have produced so far: http://unfccc.int/files/bodies/awg/application/pdf/draft_paris_outcome_rev_5dec15.pdf It's better than Copenhagen, but that's not saying much. 1 week left. Not sure how they're going to come up with an agreement with any real teeth.
  11. csnavywx
    That'd work for me. Might even get that money back in the long run through reduced pushback to interventionist foreign policy. Combo it with a fee and dividend plan and let the market boost it too. As bad as that leak is, it's a drop in the bucket compared to the 20 million barrels per day of oil we burn currently.
  12. csnavywx
    A year above 2013 isn't out of the ballpark, but I think it will have to come fairly soon (within the next several years). Thing is, we just came off a solid month of a very similar +GPH and +MSLP anomaly patterns to that of the 2007-2012 pattern. Very similar. That's something we didn't manage for more than a few days at a time during the last two seasons. So the call for 2013-2014-like patterns continuing in the future may be a bit premature there. Hell, we don't really know why that pattern occurred and persisted as long as it did in the first place. There is no real precedent for it in the record or reanalysis data. That's interesting to me. Chalking it up to a correlation with the AMO doesn't really hold much water though.
  13. csnavywx
    There are significant stores of hydrates on the ESAS that are at depths less than 300m, including a few as shallow as 20m due to the "self-preservation" effect (metastability). This self-preservation effect is well known in the oil patch. Whether the hydrates there exhibit more of a chronic release or are susceptible to short-term bulk releases is a subject of debate. More evidence exists for chronic release in the paleo-record, but we also haven't had a precedent in the distant past where the Gas Hydrate Stability Zone (GHSZ) could be so close to the surface (due to very cold Arctic water temps) and be subject to rapid warming. During the PETM, such hydrates would have had to exist at great depths and the subsequent changes in temperature in the GHSZ would've been very slow.
  14. csnavywx
    Extremely prominent occlusion process going on with the killer cell that just passed over into Georgia.
  15. csnavywx
    Central IN seems like a good area.
  16. csnavywx
    So, who's up for chasing this sucker tomorrow?
  17. csnavywx
    It's a nice severe sounding, but all crosswise vorticity suggests little tornado threat. I would be mainly worried about wind and some hail.
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