csnavywx

Willing to bet it'll end up more like Wed. aftn/overnight into Thu.

Wave timing and phasing, basically. A big dog will require the southern stream and northern stream to have a well-timed phase. Even a partial phase can produce decent totals here, so we don't need it to be perfect. The advantage this go-around is that both players are already on the board and are fairly large-scale (one is a large vort/TPV over the Husdon Bay and the other is a large system south of the Aleutians), so it's unlikely this is some hallucination. Most of the volatility is from the vort streamer from the Hudson Bay TPV -- basically the energy that gets left behind underneath the block that's breaking down. If the southern stream is too slow or the PV streamer is too far west or doesn't materialize to the strength that is currently progged, then those could cause some fail modes.

Yep. Having it come in just 2-3 days behind this weekend's system is going to help quite a bit. Bulk of the CAA is on Monday, so only a short time for airmass modification before this one arrives. This weekend's system also doesn't entirely scour the Gulf either, leaving some room for return flow to tap in some moisture.

Notable that every single piece of guidance today has an event at D6-D7 and the spread is unusually small for this distance.

Most guidance has come around to a slider/Hatteras track. Still some wiggle room, but the "waveguide" looks good. Hard to be upset at the general setup 6-7 days out.

Looking like Leonardtown-->Easton--> Sussex jackpotted in with a 9-11" band (just outside the mixing line). I thought the max amount over here in SoMD would be about 20mi further north, but very close to the final max band! Perhaps surprising a bit were the 7+ totals all the way down to Pt. Lookout. That initial intense shove of f-gen forcing dropped some 2"/hr rates there with the first band. Personally I ended around 6.5" with about 1.25" of sleet included in there. VERY dense snowpack. Probably 4 or 5:1.

Mixing line has stalled for now just to my north. Snow attempting to mix back in. Have just been piling on a bunch of sleet for a few hours. About .6 of that on top of 4.5" of snow.

Large scale pattern looks great. Titanic -AO/-NAO block that shoves in an Arctic outbreak this weekend and leaves some vort behind. Def some potential to work with there as the block weakens.

Mostly heavy sleet at this point. Still a few aggregates mixing in and some small needles and plates from the relatively deep cold layer underneath the warm nose. 4.9" measured. Compaction from the sleet layer getting significant. I know we're still dealing with this storm until tomorrow morning but it does look like we'll get another shot around the 20th. Titanic Greenland block/-AO should push in a big outbreak of cold air after this weekend and set up a several-day-long window for a system to slide into a favorable waveguide as the block gradually weakens.

Heavy sleet with some snow mixed in. 4.9". Turning into concrete. Roads are a disaster.

Mixing with sleet again. Still coming down pretty heavily.

The fact that we got a full night of radiational cooling followed by thick clouds right before sunrise definitely helped in this case.

Back to 1-2"/hr rates, mixing stopped. Strong lift, frontogen. circulation, and high precip rates have thusfar been pretty successful at cooling and eventually washing out these above-freezing warm nose intrusions.

Back to all snow and fat quarter-sized aggregates. Rates not as insane but still respectable.

Started snowing at 1:17pm. Quick ramp to 1"+/hr. Now at 2" with some sleet starting to mix in. Max band prob going to end up a bit north of me.

2.0". Bit of sleet already mixing in.

KNUI 111946Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM +SN FG VV004 00/00 A3029 RMK AO2 P0013 T00000000 Some really cracked snowfall rates in that band coming up from the south. .13" liquid in an hour.

Yep. Doing 1"+/hr now. 1.4 total so far.

Intensity really ramped up fast. Now heavy snow. Particularly intense mesoscale band starting to establish nearby.

First flakes falling here. Took a good 2 hours of returns aloft to saturate up.

Intense 700-850mb frontogenesis with this system will probably produce a period of 1-2" rates before changeover. After loading up BUFKIT, it's hard to see how we don't see at least *some* mixing, but the impact will be less for those along and north of a Waldorf-Easton-Sussex DE line. Further south, p-type changes over to sleet around 21-23Z, which will cut down on some of the totals. The warm nose is far enough up into the column that strong lift and melting could enhance an east-west band where p-type could flip several times depending on intensity. One thing is for sure, you'll need to smell the mixing line to get the best totals.

I'll break out BUFKIT for the 18z runs once they're all in.

Southern edge of the Nina battle zone. Some drought busting rains with the occasional nailbiter. Tues/Weds looks decent for Waldorf-Easton-Sussex with some mixing issues for me and you after a solid front end thump. Track looks good, with a slider off of Hatteras, so it's hard for me to get too bearish on that. Small change in thermals or a melt-enhanced mesoscale band could easily bump up totals further south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

Dusting here. Snow appears to be hugging the 700mb frontogen chart pretty well.