csnavywx

Yeah, cam is tilted now, but somehow still up.

Can't be sure yet -- but she looks to be banking slightly right relative to earlier. Might be the start of the turn.

Saw that cooler and other trash. Sherriff of Grand Isle on the phone on TWC said their sensor reached 148mph (prob a gust) before breaking.

That's what I thought too -- but he clipped the GIF version instead of the flash version of ADDS, which indeed uses whole integer numbers for SLP (the flash version uses the tenths, like in METARs). Still, the lowest I can find from the station's METAR record is: KCYD 291035Z AUTO 1/4SM -RA FG OVC004 27/26 A2809 RMK A02 P0002 T02710260 Which is about 951mb. The issue is that the station didn't report an altimeter for 90m prior to that and it was on the way up -- so we don't really know.

Shear vector is out of the WNW. Only around 8-12kt, but that's enough to place more of the precip on the E/SE side of the circulation.

At least some of them from my recollection, yeah. I recall reading some papers on those two in particular and how normal FL wind reduction to the surface wasn't always appropriate.

Acting like Dean and Mitch with these wind profiles. Max warm core strength closer to the surface.

Yes, it was. Around 105-115 max intensity. We're going to clear that in terms of max w and radii, which will have an impact on those initial numbers. The levees will likely hold, which is why I said "risk". Additional strengthening will not help though and the increase in risk is not linear.

Every storm in this rarified air is different. Katrina's surge will be hard to beat due to its gaping maw and cat 5 intensity well before landfall, which allowed a significant swell and surge to build before it made landfall (it weakened only very shortly before landfall). Ida has had less time, even though it will be stronger in terms of max wind. I suspect the wind damage will be the standout with this one -- though the surge on any cat4/cat5 is no slouch either.

Really beginning to think that Nora screwed the pooch. The push from differential shear on Fri-Sat morn plus the outflow push from Nora into the TUTT over the western GOM has really left this in a bad spot. We need a lucky break now.

I was expecting stronger when I got up this morning, but this is definitely over my guess. We need an EWRC and fast. Main hurricane levees are at risk at this level. Any more strengthening will not help in that regard.

T-numbers shooting up: 5.6 current, 6.1 raw; Satcon showing major (100) with hourly up to 105kt.

Pretty obvious strengthening ongoing atm with the storm crossing a warm eddy (as part of the Loop Current). Eye looking to try and clear out with a more classic look likely soon, given deep convection has wrapped around the center.

The TUTT cell to the west has finally started sinking south in the last couple of hours. We should start seeing a more westerly component to motion now (finally).

Won't matter unless it can get ingested. She's sitting in a large moisture envelope and under low shear. Pretty well buffered at the moment.

Yeah no kidding. Kind of need that right now. Ida has *kind of* taken her time getting re-organized today, so I imagine we're not quite getting the extra boost. There's a bit of an easterly shear vector in the mid-upper levels tonight and RI should be fully underway. Hoping that gives her a nudge back to the west before LF.

She's still leaning east-of-prog and the margin for NOLA taking the NE eyewall is getting razor thin. I keep saying this, but it needs to stop and soon.

Hah, I wondered where you were at. Yeah, it's been slowly symmetrizing all day after being a bit tilted and asymmetric this morning. Should be able to take advantage of its improved structure tonight.

It's more than just political ideation. If somebody wants to be taken seriously scientifically, as he does, they have a duty to support their claims honestly and update their priors when they're wrong. He almost never does, especially when it comes to CC. It invariably turns into waving around conspiracies as explanations -- which doesn't actually explain jack squat, it's a punt and turns into eternally engulfing or circular reasoning. Every piece of evidence against it becomes evidence *for* it. I've lain down the gauntlet on this stuff several times on this forum (nobody on the other side of the argument has picked it up) -- and at this point we've cleaved off CC discussion to its own forum essentially because we're expected to carry emotional baggage for intellectually immature or dishonest people. Sorry for the mini-rant. His actual seeding subject is an interesting question, but it's a thorny one. You'd have to try it on fish storms first and it would be very hard to control for. We've actually already tried, but with inconclusive results. Not to mention all of the HAARP-type folks that would come out of the woodwork and basically get it shut down before we're able to get anything useful out of it.

That would explain the series of opposing cycling hot towers a little while ago -- probably fired along the major axis.

Core is now emerged over the Gulf of Batabano -- should make second landfall in an hour or two. Notable that towers immediately began to re-fire the second it came back over water.

Given the way it behaved today with less than ideal conditions -- I can't blame them. Max shear drops off to ~5kt tomorrow with the vector aligned with the track and plenty of OHC. Only remaining fly is how badly the formative inner core is damaged. This little double speedbump interrupted what was probably a hellacious RI episode.

The diabatic pump is real, however I think *at the moment* it's more about the differential steering flow (versus a weaker/shallower and more tilted Ida that some ensembles and deterministic runs had forecast). This constant slight deviation to the right of track adds up over time -- at least until the shear vector weakens and shifts direction late tonight and tomorrow morning. The effect might cancel out -- but we could really do with fewer corrections to the east.

Short-term land disruption is generally more effective in limiting downstream intensification once an inner core has become established. This is due to wind curve flattening or spreading. This larger windfield becomes less concentrated near the core (because of frictional spin-down and interruption of latent heat flux) and also generally becomes pretty inertially stable -- making it more difficult for wind maxima to contract and spin back up. Irma and Isidore are good examples of this. It may not work very well in this case due to the fact that the inner core is still in a formative stage and the TS-force wind field is still pretty small.

FL winds are up about 10 knots from the previous SE-NW pass by recon. Already strengthening pretty rapidly.