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csnavywx

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Everything posted by csnavywx

  1. csnavywx
    The fact that this comment by JP didn't get more press is really fucking alarming. He's basically telling you what's going to happen to the housing market and by extension -- the economy, in the future.
  2. csnavywx
    I think at least some of this is being driven by rapid NPac and NAtl warming, driving +height tendencies there and a transient -height tendency over the continent. It was more confined to the Feb-May timeframe over the northern CONUS in the '10s, primarily in response to the north Pacific, but we may see that expand given how quickly both oceans have warmed.
  3. csnavywx
    Ended with: 1.5"-2.5" (north to south) at KNHK. 2.7" at house, 4.5" at Ridge and 6" at Pt. Lookout entrance. High ratio fluff with a very impressive accumulation gradient.
  4. csnavywx
    Took a little drive down to Ridge and Pt. Lookout after the road crews went through. 4.5" in Ridge and 6.0" at Pt. Lookout entrance. Very fluffy, high ratio stuff. Very sharp gradient!
  5. csnavywx
    Insanely sharp gradient here. 1.5" on north side of KNHK, 2.0 on the station itself and nearly 3" on the south side of the base and at my house. Bet Pt. Lookout to SBY ends up somewhere over 5"
  6. csnavywx
    Can only imagine what this sucker could've produced with a full phase. Ah well -- we've got the next 3-4 weeks and hopefully a weak +ENSO/-AO year to play with next year.
  7. csnavywx
  8. csnavywx
    That mesoband should be around for a few more hours. Slow mover as that H7 frontogen. zone gradually pivots overhead. Should cash in pretty hard for the areas that get it. It was producing a pretty solid 3/4"/hr for a while here. Looks like around 1"/hr under the core of it right now.
  9. csnavywx
    Solid mesoband established from NHK over to far southern DE. Coming down at about 0.75"/hr here.
  10. csnavywx
    Half mile in moderate snow under this frontogen. band. Hopefully sticks around for a couple of hours.
  11. csnavywx
    Yes, it's not over -- at least for us southerners. Most guidance was north this run, esp. the CAMs. Although I think some of the NAM positioning is due to diabatic processes in the model from convection. They exist, but it's very difficult to model and prone to shifts. Still, it would be great to get some non-linear cyclogenesis and "save" this one from mediocrity.
  12. csnavywx
    Eesh. At this rate, we might be lucky to get 20 inches of cirrus. We'd have been better off without the TPV, tbh. Would've at least gotten a decent southern slider, but it's getting swept and suppressed so far south that we're almost out of the track range.
  13. csnavywx
    Yep -- for a big storm anyways. Can still get a light-moderate event just from relatively favorable track of the southern wave effectively being a slider. But in order to keep a big storm, we need the northern wave to play ball at least a little bit.
  14. csnavywx
    Yeah, that SE trend can stop now. About out of room for everyone except Salisbury and Wallops.
  15. csnavywx
    I prefer starting there too. In this case, I would not expect the GFS to cover the gap between it and the EC in just one run, esp since previous runs weren't getting most of the snow from the coastal and the developing mid-level low. So, if it's heading that direction, you'd *expect* to see a dip in QPF first, then rise again if it latches onto more of an EC-type evolution.
  16. csnavywx
    Should reaaaaaally do a dprog/dt with H5 and MSLP before panicking. Trending towards the northern coastal solution with time (e.g. what the 12Z EC and EPS printed out).
  17. csnavywx
    EPS inched up to 0.8-1.0" liquid mean.
  18. csnavywx
    Overamps the NS wave, brings in warm air aloft and delays the coastal. GEM delayed the coastal from the other end (prob partially due to diabatic/latent heating). 12Z EC doesn't and it's right through the uprights. In fact, if I were going to draw us up a near-perfect setup, that EC run from 96-120h is pretty hard to beat. 700mb low develops just west and flow goes *SE* with some 1-3"/hr rates in there likely.
  19. csnavywx
    At first glance, it's just having some issues with convection and latent heat/diabatic processes near the Gulf Stream that cause a delay in coastal development. Wouldn't be heading to the panic room over it.
  20. csnavywx
    I'd do your shopping this weekend. If it goes full KU/Miller A, and it's starting to lean that way, then you don't want to be fighting the madhouse when that news gets out.
  21. csnavywx
    100%. Doing my shopping today before people lose their collective minds. Remember the gas, rock salt, matches and cash.
  22. csnavywx
    Time to unlock that thread, Randy.
  23. csnavywx
    00Z suite was made from pure snow weenie dreams.
  24. csnavywx
    Looks similar. Ceiling on this one could be a bit higher. In my experience, the big dogs are usually pretty synoptically obvious and show up on guidance earlier than most events. Solution stability brought on by larger, more stable parts. The PV streamer that comes off the Hudson Bay TPV and the timing of the southern stream shortwave are probably the parts with the biggest slippage, but given that these are currently large, stable systems means it's rather unlikely all of this is a hallucination.
  25. csnavywx
    CIPS analog system at T+156 with a signal here.
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