csnavywx

Actually really like this setup for some semi-discrete or discrete cellular activity (as shown by the NAM). While the best forcing goes north with the surface low and south with some trailing mid-level forcing and better cape, there is still some forcing for vertical motion here and some weak capping with halfway decent CAPE. Could be just enough to suppress crapvection and allow for more discrete activity to thrive, esp towards/just after sunset.

TRACC/CMIP-6 is already behind the curve: On full blast from here with Med shipping sulfur emission controls taking effect this year.

The fact that this comment by JP didn't get more press is really fucking alarming. He's basically telling you what's going to happen to the housing market and by extension -- the economy, in the future.

I think at least some of this is being driven by rapid NPac and NAtl warming, driving +height tendencies there and a transient -height tendency over the continent. It was more confined to the Feb-May timeframe over the northern CONUS in the '10s, primarily in response to the north Pacific, but we may see that expand given how quickly both oceans have warmed.

Ended with: 1.5"-2.5" (north to south) at KNHK. 2.7" at house, 4.5" at Ridge and 6" at Pt. Lookout entrance. High ratio fluff with a very impressive accumulation gradient.

Took a little drive down to Ridge and Pt. Lookout after the road crews went through. 4.5" in Ridge and 6.0" at Pt. Lookout entrance. Very fluffy, high ratio stuff. Very sharp gradient!

Insanely sharp gradient here. 1.5" on north side of KNHK, 2.0 on the station itself and nearly 3" on the south side of the base and at my house. Bet Pt. Lookout to SBY ends up somewhere over 5"

Can only imagine what this sucker could've produced with a full phase. Ah well -- we've got the next 3-4 weeks and hopefully a weak +ENSO/-AO year to play with next year.

That mesoband should be around for a few more hours. Slow mover as that H7 frontogen. zone gradually pivots overhead. Should cash in pretty hard for the areas that get it. It was producing a pretty solid 3/4"/hr for a while here. Looks like around 1"/hr under the core of it right now.

Solid mesoband established from NHK over to far southern DE. Coming down at about 0.75"/hr here.

Half mile in moderate snow under this frontogen. band. Hopefully sticks around for a couple of hours.

Yes, it's not over -- at least for us southerners. Most guidance was north this run, esp. the CAMs. Although I think some of the NAM positioning is due to diabatic processes in the model from convection. They exist, but it's very difficult to model and prone to shifts. Still, it would be great to get some non-linear cyclogenesis and "save" this one from mediocrity.

Eesh. At this rate, we might be lucky to get 20 inches of cirrus. We'd have been better off without the TPV, tbh. Would've at least gotten a decent southern slider, but it's getting swept and suppressed so far south that we're almost out of the track range.

Yep -- for a big storm anyways. Can still get a light-moderate event just from relatively favorable track of the southern wave effectively being a slider. But in order to keep a big storm, we need the northern wave to play ball at least a little bit.