csnavywx

I think at least some of this is being driven by rapid NPac and NAtl warming, driving +height tendencies there and a transient -height tendency over the continent. It was more confined to the Feb-May timeframe over the northern CONUS in the '10s, primarily in response to the north Pacific, but we may see that expand given how quickly both oceans have warmed.

Ended with: 1.5"-2.5" (north to south) at KNHK. 2.7" at house, 4.5" at Ridge and 6" at Pt. Lookout entrance. High ratio fluff with a very impressive accumulation gradient.

Took a little drive down to Ridge and Pt. Lookout after the road crews went through. 4.5" in Ridge and 6.0" at Pt. Lookout entrance. Very fluffy, high ratio stuff. Very sharp gradient!

Insanely sharp gradient here. 1.5" on north side of KNHK, 2.0 on the station itself and nearly 3" on the south side of the base and at my house. Bet Pt. Lookout to SBY ends up somewhere over 5"

Can only imagine what this sucker could've produced with a full phase. Ah well -- we've got the next 3-4 weeks and hopefully a weak +ENSO/-AO year to play with next year.

That mesoband should be around for a few more hours. Slow mover as that H7 frontogen. zone gradually pivots overhead. Should cash in pretty hard for the areas that get it. It was producing a pretty solid 3/4"/hr for a while here. Looks like around 1"/hr under the core of it right now.

Solid mesoband established from NHK over to far southern DE. Coming down at about 0.75"/hr here.

Half mile in moderate snow under this frontogen. band. Hopefully sticks around for a couple of hours.

Yes, it's not over -- at least for us southerners. Most guidance was north this run, esp. the CAMs. Although I think some of the NAM positioning is due to diabatic processes in the model from convection. They exist, but it's very difficult to model and prone to shifts. Still, it would be great to get some non-linear cyclogenesis and "save" this one from mediocrity.

Eesh. At this rate, we might be lucky to get 20 inches of cirrus. We'd have been better off without the TPV, tbh. Would've at least gotten a decent southern slider, but it's getting swept and suppressed so far south that we're almost out of the track range.

Yep -- for a big storm anyways. Can still get a light-moderate event just from relatively favorable track of the southern wave effectively being a slider. But in order to keep a big storm, we need the northern wave to play ball at least a little bit.

Yeah, that SE trend can stop now. About out of room for everyone except Salisbury and Wallops.

I prefer starting there too. In this case, I would not expect the GFS to cover the gap between it and the EC in just one run, esp since previous runs weren't getting most of the snow from the coastal and the developing mid-level low. So, if it's heading that direction, you'd *expect* to see a dip in QPF first, then rise again if it latches onto more of an EC-type evolution.

Should reaaaaaally do a dprog/dt with H5 and MSLP before panicking. Trending towards the northern coastal solution with time (e.g. what the 12Z EC and EPS printed out).