I was in Petsmart shopping and I am pretty sure it snowed 2 inches while I was in there... I had to push a guy out of the lot cause he had rear while drive... that one and the Valentines day one a couple of years later were insane...
you see that coma shaped area of below 0 to the south and west of DC.. I think the model picking up on the dynamics of the system.. it looks like thats where wind shifts around to the north and banding sets up..
If I were you I wouldnt worry about a thing... this is basically a lock for Carrol County! Even with the worst run (18z gfs) you still got warning level snow!
Its pretty amazing that Deep Creek hasnt seen a big coastal since 2016... You would think that would have been a near miss/ rainer for the Cities that dumped up there.. but that tells you just how bad it has been..
their forecast is just silly.. I know @usedtobe is the primary contributor but if I were them I would title the headline "Foot of snow possible for DC". They are way too conservative. Just let it rip.. have fun with it!
I couldnt agree more.. And if you live in Southern MD or even DC.. just book a staycation somewhere!! Hunt Valley is very close to Oregon Ridge.. stay Wed night and sled on Thursday! This is an easy chase
For anyone north of Baltimore, to me it seems fairly locked in at this point. We are just at 96 hours.. if we get one more day of model runs like this.. and it fails.. we are looking at a huge bust.
The source of the cold air is significant also.. Wednesday morning might be the coldest day of the year for many in the NE. It might be in the low 20s for @psuhoffman when its starts snowing.