I want severe graupel!
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry conditions have returned to the area early this morning, with
some patchy dense fog developing in a few river valleys. Cloud cover
increases this morning as a deep low pressure over the OH Valley
moves east and over the area today into tonight. This is going to
produce scattered to widespread showers, with isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon into early evening. Given cold temps aloft, strong
forcing for ascent, and steep mid-level lapse rates it is likely
that the stronger convection produces graupel. Most of it should
remain small, though it could accumulate in any heavy showers/storm.
While it is not likely, cannot rule out that graupel reaches the
size where a Severe Thunderstorm Warning could be needed. Highs
today reach the 50s, and the upper 30s to 40s in the mountains.