MN Transplant

Wow, 100s at DCA and BWI. IAD and my house look like 98s. I got a few drops in the early afternoon that halted the rise.

We are pretty close to a certain 100 Tuesday.

All the models look like we are in the 22-24C range for 850 temps on Tuesday. Hot.

It has been raining, but unless you get under a convective element it isn’t amounting to much. 0.05”

Sure would have been nice if this was a big shield of rain instead of distributed convective elements, but that wasn’t in the cards. Just a trace so far.

Other than the usual differences in precipitation guidance, there is an interesting battle between the meso and global models for temps on Friday. The globals keep us socked in with clouds and we stay in the 70s. The mesos pop us in and out of clouds and get many of us into the 80s. The 06z NAM Nest is particularly aggressive with a warm mid-80s afternoon bracketed by rain in the morning and evening.

0.38”. Not what I was hoping for with the radar looking like it did, but I was clearly in the gradient between wet west and dry east. Most rain in one day since the end of May.

Keep it rolling

They just warned it

It is mostly because the vegetation (especially grass) takes a beating after a few weeks of dry conditions in the summer. It becomes noticeable and people talk about it.

Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V for July/Aug in the DC area

The HRRR is backing DPs down to the upper 60s to around 70 and lowering the available CAPE. The NAM seems more realistic per usual, but it is also usually aggressive in these scenarios. It'll probably end up somewhere in between.

And while I have my spreadsheet up, if the morning low holds at DCA, this will only be the 11th 82+ low on record at that station.

A good delimiter for big-time heat years is whether there are 20 or more 95+ days. There have only been 12 of those in DCA history (2016 being the latest, 2012 having the record of 29). We are currently sitting at 10 with plenty more to come. If you do year-to-date, 2024 only trails: 2012 (14) 2010 (11) 1991 (13) 1911 (11) Interestingly, in 2016 the heat was backloaded, with only 1 95+ day through 7/9, on the way to 23 total.

82/75 at 6am at DCA. Woof. edit - as of 6am none of the big 3 airports have dropped below 80.

Radar hopping in NoVA

98/75 for a 111 HI at the 1:52pm ob at DCA

And in case anyone was worried, the Euro has us back in the upper 90s by Sunday.

Yes. Yes it is.

Bouncing around 97/98. 6th consecutive day with at least a high of 97 at home.

Yes, there is absolutely a failure scenario for us, with the highest risk from 95 and west.

Exactly. 2010 had the crazy number of 90s, 2011 had the stretch I listed including obscene humidity ("sweat ceiling"), and 2012 had the really big-ticket heat (104 and 105 at DCA). Since then, it has really only been 2016 that went big. Yeah, the slow start to the summer 90s means that this year won't challenge those types of records. I'm curious whether the Staunton data shows the same as DC, where '34 and '36 had hot daytime highs, but the lows were more "reasonable" on those days. Likely some combination of dry conditions and the lack of UHI.

Looking back at the climatological data, this is going to end up high on the list of average temperature over 7 days. And yet, I'm glad this isn't quite a repeat of 2011. 8/2/2011 98 74 8/1/2011 100 75 7/31/2011 99 80 7/30/2011 97 81 7/29/2011 104 80 7/28/2011 95 78 7/27/2011 93 78 7/26/2011 95 76 7/25/2011 93 78 7/24/2011 97 84 7/23/2011 102 84 7/22/2011 102 83 7/21/2011 99 80 7/20/2011 94 77 7/19/2011 97 79

It would trend west and 95 would mix.

Wouldn't this be a kick. Full run 12Z GFS total precip.