The problem is that this is a small low and the moisture availability is modest at best. PWATs don’t even get close to 1”.
Part of the reason why this looked like a region-wide soaker from several days back was that the two parts (wave then low) nicely hit different areas. The wave part ended up being a dud for most of us except for up by Hagerstown. I got a trace.
18z NAMs and HRRR look fine. Most of us over an inch, and up to 2"+ in lucky spots. The difference is that the HRRR centers the precip in the center and east of the DC/Balt region, while the NAMs favor spots W of 95.
Hard to tell. It looks mostly hit-and-miss showery until probably after your event when more sustained rain moves in. But, of course, if you are in the "hit" area prior to that, you'll be wet.
Morning mesos don't have much for later today, pretty isolated and a better chance to the NW. Most of our upcoming rain is going to happen behind the frontal boundary which comes through midday tomorrow.
Another 80 and another +20 at DCA. Going to end up between +6 and +7 on the month, so despite the wind it was a torch.
edit - and probably a record high minimum.