MN Transplant
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About MN Transplant
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January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
MN Transplant replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
I'm still skeptical about many of these pure AI models, and the paper itself isn't a slam dunk, but I did notice something else interesting in there: Historically, t2m has proved extremely challenging to assimilate in a global physics-based weather model, with the ECMWF starting operational assimilation of t2m observations only in November 2024 (Ingleby et al., 2024). This led to significant improvements in short-range t2m forecasts. -
The biggest “problem” is that there just isn’t much precip with this. Meso models are in the few hundredths range. If we were looking at a big shield of precip coming in I’d agree with you. But it is very likely just some pingers and/or light ZR for a bit.
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16.3. Good call by the NWS from a few days out to go colder than most guidance.
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Truly amazing. Now the Packers and Lions to close the season.
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January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
MN Transplant replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Eh, I like big dog hunting. I've already completely forgotten about the light/moderate events that happened less than a year ago. -
I was wondering about that too, and it seemed to be more NW/SE oriented. Probably a combination of a normal temperature gradient and a bit of cloudiness over northern VA.
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Mesoscale models have a light band of precip coming through in the morning. Surface is residually cold, but the column is a little too warm. So, more of a mix. If it is delayed at all the surface will warm and it'll just be cold rain on the 24th.
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23.4, didn’t fall much after midnight.
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Can't lose three games, not win your conference, and expect to get into the playoffs.
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I don't see any guidance that is this cold, but sure enough it is in the AFD too: Sunday night brings lows in the single digits to lower teens for most.
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You jinxed it. Down to 38.
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Mood snow at 35.8
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AMS week in New Orleans, so that tracks.
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They still had the old wind chill scale back then and the numbers were insane back home in Minnesota. -60, -70, -80. We were out of school for a few days and I remember just sitting and watching tv coverage of the Northridge earthquake.
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Amazing, DCA tied a record high today. 65
