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stormdragonwx

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Everything posted by stormdragonwx

  1. stormdragonwx
    Yeah looks like we are getting what Tulsa got a year or so ago... As I feared.
  2. stormdragonwx
    Now cue the dry slot to troll the forecasters now that they caved lol
  3. stormdragonwx
    Yeah I highly doubt we will get above freezing like what the local TV Mets were saying would happen to limit totals and ratios. It's 9am and just barely over 20 degrees with cloud cover already heavy. Ground will be plenty cold to stick. Modeled HRRR was saying upper 30's right now last night. Not happening.
  4. stormdragonwx
    Basically yes its referencing the fact I have seen a really good forecast setup bust as short as 4-6 hours out. e.g. warm air intrusion or excessive dry slotting
  5. stormdragonwx
    Insane. As mentioned in a prior post, I really hope this isn't Lucy with the football. lol
  6. stormdragonwx
    SREF Averages GEFS Averages
  7. stormdragonwx
    After saying no snow yesterday the 00z NAM just blew up... wow Though I find interesting the local TV mets here are saying we will warm well above freezing overnight (due to warm air advection) into the morning limiting snowfall, where I am at we haven't been above freezing since Sunday. Its totally clear and in the teens tonight. I don't see it happening but stranger things have happened and we get a big sleet storm as a result.
  8. stormdragonwx
    Here is the GEFS modeled ensemble members showing potential snowfall over the next 84 hours.
  9. stormdragonwx
    18z NAM almost on par with the crazy totals the Canadian has been showing for a good bit. It's a good sign to see it trending up 12 hours out from the event.
  10. stormdragonwx
    Looks like a 2nd dry slot in NWA right over my house too on that model. Hopefully this doesn't trend.
  11. stormdragonwx
    Ive remained skeptical of this setup for the past few days. It shows signs of Lucy pulling the Football like most of these tend to do. This has huge bust potential.
  12. stormdragonwx
    Logically & climatologically speaking I am finding it absurd to think much of central and northeast TX could see over a foot of snow by next weekend. I still expect the models to jog the storm track 50-75 miles more to the north putting the I-44 I-40 corridor in the bullseye in the coming days. I'm waiting for the NAM runs to come in.
  13. stormdragonwx
    Finally got a WWA over here at least lol
  14. stormdragonwx
    Indeed typical
  15. stormdragonwx
    10th-11th looks interesting too on the GFS/Canadian models. Euro wants to say its a TX event for a foot of snow which I don't buy.
  16. stormdragonwx
    Been watching that too. I expect it will lessen the amounts and shift north in the coming days.
  17. stormdragonwx
    I wouldn't be so quick to write off this storm as of yet. We still got a few days. System isn't even on shore yet. The models will shuffle the track a bit more until then.
  18. stormdragonwx
    Local News Media in both Arkansas and Oklahoma are going public about the model data now.
  19. stormdragonwx
    Interesting to say the least. Indeed must be a lot of sleet/ice mixed in.
  20. stormdragonwx
    Zzzzzzzzz being the current trend minus being seasonably cold at least. Its not looking good in the long term this month as it looks to warm back up again. Those wishing for a White Christmas might be a bust, at least for most of us. Edit: Latest Euro came out and wants to hint at snow/ice during Christmas week but it's at the end of the run. Take it with a grain of salt.
  21. stormdragonwx
    Still unconfirmed if it was a bunch of different tornado tracks as they are still doing the survey but I was right next to the one that touched down in Rogers last night. It was definitely a big rain wrapped beast. Rogers literally just got done renovating the downtown area and now much of it is in ruins. This hit close to home literally and will be a chase ingrained in my memory for a very long time. I hate HP tornadic storms at night.
  22. stormdragonwx
    Wow
  23. stormdragonwx
    My target area was Enid so this lines up with what I suspected unfortunately
  24. stormdragonwx
    Might be a little gun shy after the 5/20/19 debacle. Totally understandable. Bet it gets reconsidered at 1630z
  25. stormdragonwx
    Fine, I'll be the weather weenie for once and say it goes high risk on Mon morning. lol
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