stormdragonwx

Only picked up 6-7 inches here in Fayetteville. Was hard to measure accurately due to the blowing snow. So the crazy forecast trend did bust as I suspected. Dry air intrusion along with warmer midlevels turning the precip into a snow/sleet mix at times cut down on totals quite a bit.

I'm here in Springdale and I think we got warm air aloft messing with our snowfall. Its changed to a snow/sleet mixture. That's gonna kill totals.

Snowing pretty good here at work in Springdale, AR with the ground already getting covered including streets and parking lots. Started as snow and started sticking almost immediately to all surfaces. Currently down to 26F so I expect the snow ratios to start increasing here.

At this point the only real fail scenarios will be seen thru nowcasting. #1. A stronger warm nose shows up cutting down on the snow turning it into one big sleet storm for a good portion of the event. #2. A stronger than anticipated dry slot cutting off moisture altogether. There's still a chance these totals get halved by morning but its looking less likely overall.

Man, all the major short range convective models are murdering much of NE OK, SW MO, and NW AR. So crazy to see this the night before the event. (do note the two 00z WRF runs weren't even finished running thru at the time of posting)

Its been a long time since I have seen the DSP map maxed out like that with the snow totals.

Yeah this is shaping up to being a once in a decade type event. Possibly comparable to the Feb 9th, 2011 storm that dumped 2+ feet over NE OK and NW AR.

Even the RAP is slamming SW MO and SE KS and the system might not even be fully moved out yet at the end of the run.

Yeah people do not want to be out along US 60 and I-44 Tuesday night between SE KS, Joplin, and Springfield, possibly even back towards Tulsa.

ICON and RDPS is wanting to make a lot of folks on this board happy tonight. NAM and GFS coming in heavy & slightly shifting south a bit too.

Canadian has been king this winter. It did fantastic during the big snow back in Jan.

Im still waiting for Lucy to pull the football on this. Might come down to the day of. I remember someone talking about warm air intrusion in the upper levels turning this into a sleet storm. Fingers crossed for no doughnut holes either. That one over the Tulsa Metro a while back was insane.

I am wondering how well sampled the storm system is. Should know by 06z I think.

I'll take the 18z Canadian locked in. Thanks. lol Watch these totally back off in the next 36 hours and we get a sleet storm.

I like monitoring their DSP page. It just updated not too long ago here. I do think it will get revised up as we get closer. Betting watches will extend down to I-40 once they issue theirs. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp

NAM is warmer and not as aggressive on totals or storm progression.

RDPS (Canadian short range) coming into range now showing a very aggressive solution by Tues afternoon into the evening as the storm ramps up. This doesn't account for overnight into Weds... wow

00z Canadian and ICON went bonkers over the hwy 60 corridor in OK/MO with 20+ inches in spots.

Yeah I'm being cautious on this one till Sunday as it could come in much drier and/or further north. Tho it's unlikely to be another 34 deg and rain scenario for my area like this last system was.

Fingers crossed we get heavy snow versus ice like what some data is hinting at.

Local TV Mets jumping onboard now too. Next Tues-Thurs could be fun. Glad winter isn't done. You also got this being posted

Totally ready to do this again next weekend too. Lol

It must have really came down after I went to bed as I measured just shy of 3 inches. Got just shy of 7 inches on the east side of Fayetteville with the wraparound still moving in.

Just noticed Tulsa revised up the totals again on their DSP page after dropping them earlier this evening when the 00z models came out. Hmmm

Dry air intrusion has been an issue driving down rates and the overall size of the flakes themselves in NW AR. Though over the past 30 mins I have noticed the snow has started to back build and fill the dry slot thats been streaming over the Vance and Fredrick radar sites out in Oklahoma. Apparently Kiowa, KS and the Amarillo, TX metro got 10-12" respectively. Go to those radar sites and you will see a pretty hefty band on the back side of this system with its wraparound. Now whether it dries up before it gets over here is another story. EDIT: Actually the band extends all the way back to Lubbock, TX and Clovis, NM