SUNYGRAD

Make some happy ---NWS GSP Starting to get reports of snow in the Upper Savannah and Lakelands area as a mesoscale band sets up near the I-20 corridor and gradually lifts north. Heavy snow and sleet being reported within this band. Temperatures have been very cold recently, so most of any wintry precip that falls will accumulate immediately and with the recent development of the snowbank to the south, have decided to increase snowfall amounts for locations along and south of I-85. Still expect the warmnose to punch in later this afternoon into the evening hours and transition most of the precip from snow to sleet/freezing rain for the Piedmont areas. Snowfall rates will run 1"-2" within the aforementioned mesoscale band and will make travel conditions very hazardous. Even with the uptick in snowfall amounts in this area, there is the possibility that amounts could still be overdone depending on how this band of heavy snow plays out.

Divergence/Convergence

HRRR is a little too warm at surface here in GSO---about two degrees or so.

quick glance----NAM 3K maybe a little too warm at mid-levels---temperature. But also, a little drier on actual sounding.

Will try compare models soon. Take home, very dry---no surprise.

I was thinking about this event yesterday and comparing it today. March 28 and 29, 2010 North Carolina Tornado Outbreak (ncsu.edu) Some of you may remember this event

Probably dynamic cooling.

sleet and freezing rain in Triad area.

I think one (forecaster) should consider the convective component of models and interpretation of types of precipitation.

Skew-T Parameters and Indices (weather.gov)

1 million may lose power in Carolinas after ice storm: Duke | Charlotte Observer

Sensitivity of Ice Storms in the Southeastern United States to Atlantic SST—Insights from a Case Study of the December 2002 Storm in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 134 Issue 5 (2006) (ametsoc.org).