greenmtnwx

Honestly, this is sort of a ridiculous statement. For all we know, we might have above average snowfall for the season two weeks from now. It’s mid January. You have no idea, neither do I, and living in the coastal plain all it takes is a couple of storms, even a storm in March to achieve seasonal average snowfall.

You haven’t been here long?

Rgem still too far west. Adjusting to an I95 and NE snowstorm

Euro and GFS look nothing like them

NAM is RGEM’d up

If you were going with the euro, then that forecast doesn’t make a lot of sense. The euro is colder further east and weaker with generally better chance of accumulations in eastern areas and then on Long Island and north east of there. Although there may be better ratios, precip is limited northwest of 287.

Midatlantic? No.

Enough with that lol. New England has gotten snow, the midwest, ohio valley and now midatlantic. This one just a little suppressed.

Not saying we are going to bullseye this one, and I know I’m in a better spot on the Jersey Shore, but I was kind of surprised people were writing this one off the last day or so. People were acting like it was a 36 hour prog. This thing is still day four or five away.

The snow will come. It might take a while, even a few weeks. In January 2003 it took a few weeks to really get a decent snow, but with a pattern like that, it always comes. It comes in many different ways, clippers perhaps an Archimbault on the back end, but we usually always get a decent snow cover. If we get a 2 to 4 week decently deep cold pattern I find it hard to believe that New York City won’t score at least double digit snowfall. A nice 10+ inch month of January will ease some of the recent pain.

Diamondback or Mongoose?

Buy a pass problem solved. Skiing can still be very affordable.

This is New York City/coastal plain area, not northern New England

It almost never happens. even if you go back to December 2010 when we had some extreme cold and some suppression misses, eventually when the deep eastern trough started to lift out we got the inevitable Archimbault event with a big coastal for Boxing Day. if the deep cold for January that we see in the ensembles unfoldS for a couple of weeks, we will get snow.

I’ve said it 100 times before in this forum and I’ll say it again. There is very rarely ever a solid cold and snowless stretch in winter in New York City. The number one ingredient for snow in New York City/Coastal Plain in the winter is the cold. We almost always at least find some moisture source to give us snow if we have the cold. Could be a clipper, could be a mauler, could be a Miller A, could be a Miller B, but give me as cold as you can possibly give me and it’ll almost always snow in our area. In fact for the New York City and coastal plain area, the number one tell for me that there is a good chance there may be snow coming in the next few weeks is when you guys start talking about suppression depression. It almost never fails.