Its a Breeze

Wave 1 has the issue we've been dealing with all season, and there's no indication this is an exception.. ...lack of cold (enough) air.

So, do we use this thread to celebrate the death of La Nina? There's every indication we should be neutral by the end of this month (if we're not there already) How long before we know what kind of Nino we're getting ourselves into? Summer? Fall?

Pretty sure we had snow fall from the sky in 2015 and 2016 too, in April. Didn't amount to anything, but at least it fell. Don't mind April snows. The picturesqueness is greater than in March, though we get more then...

I do! Not sure where that came from, the not wanting to be in the bullseye at this point. Not being in the bullseye has been 100% correct so far. It's insane to wish the same.

^ None of this translates to shovelable snow... I was promised 3 feet of snow by the CMC. I want my 3 feet! We're sitting here waiting for the GFS cave from a cool rainstorm to a cold rainstorm. Within this time frame, and not even just this year, when was the last time we saw significant improvements to something we actually want? Not just upper air, but surface?

We shouldn't be waiting for anything at this point... In every thread, including the other MARCH long range thread, we've been pointed out to (and rightfully so) how the long range ensembles have been trash all season (Ops, with their cutters and bad solutions, have won in EVERY case the Ens have showed a favorable pattern) and not to hang on to them. At no point so far have they proven themselves to be any more reliable than the ops. Now, by some of those same people, we're told to trust them this time and get mad when people don't. Is that fair? At this point, I trust the squirrels in my backyard more than any Ens or Op. Also, "ur analysis" *snicker*

So....currently, 2 March 2023, 8:30PM UTC, we can see favorable conditions in the long range. But any legit storm threat is either just beyond the 10 day range, or simply not there. That's the current gist? yay. excited.

I don't know about divisive, I think all can agree it was an amazing storm overall and truly the Storm of the Century. But yeah, in terms of snow for most in this area, it left more to be desired. I don't recall what was in the forecast for us, but I know I wanted more! The winds with it were pretty cool around here....but was painful as you were sand blasted with sleet! The cold that followed the storm though, absolutely bone chilling.

In the words of the great Henry Patrick - "Give me 12"-24" of snow, or give me torch" With no chance of any significant snow in the the short term, I am honestly disappointed there's no sign of any sustained warmth. Screw any pity flakes that only adds salt to the wounds of our season of disappointments. Relying on a favorable pattern mid-March for a slight possibility of something popping up? ...why at that point? Does it add to next year's totals? "Let this winter die, kill it if you have to"

I was there, lol. It was one of the events that deepened my love for meteorology. I know all about it. Not just my backyard, I was thinking regionally, as this is the mid-Atlantic forum. We've had much better storms where the whole region did well, not just the west. Giving up snow for 5 years is insane. Giving up snow for 5 years for a storm that was just good to great, but unspectacular for the majority of the sub forum is....what?

Taken at face value this is illogical and makes absolutely zero sense. Especially given the fact that we've had multiple storms since (and numerous prior) that have been way better....by far. What are we missing?

Excited? lol, It's 10 days away. How many times have we been burned so far this season? Extremely EXTREMELY cautiously optimistic? Maybe....

https://wtop.com/weather-news/2023/02/dust-spotted-on-cars-west-of-d-c-where-did-it-originate/ Not sure if tweet stated it was from two states over, more like 7 to 8 states over.

*hooo hooo* That tonight it's going to disappear That tonight it's going to disappear

Realistically, we could have retired "it's just 10 days away" in December. We have NOT had any actual realistic threats so far this season, including this latest, so there's no reason to think we'll get one now. If we happened to score this March, then great, I will enjoy it for the <12hrs it sticks around. But this schloppy mess, at best, we're trying hanging our hats on right now? No thanks. I'd rather see nothing.

Rare...

Not close to Christmas Eve Eve's 43 degree same day temperature change, but yesterday's 36 degree temp change (in the wrong, but felt so right, way) was the second 35+ degree same day change we've seen so far this season...

Need a very slight bump south

For the first time this season, every model has snow for the region <24 hours before the event and <24 hours after an 80 degree day.

Only higher by a mile or two... LA, the city part, is not coming close to seeing snow.

Only day 10 storms that show up for one run per day are allowed! They should know that by now....

F - there are no storms...

At some point this perpetual cycle of mid-week warm-ups followed by a cool/cold start to the weekend has to stop, right?

Literally. Meteorological Spring starts NEXT week. Not that Winter began in the first place.... Are there those still desiring on last gasp? Why at this point? Let this winter remain in the trash where it belongs. It is late Feb. Late Feb has not been rocking. Can the March thread start? And it only be about potential warm temps?

Was just looking at this earlier today. DCA has had one 100+ degree day in the past 9 summers. The longest "cool" stretch like that since the late 60s-early 70s. Only the second such stretch.