Baltimorewx

You almost had it! Gotta be quicker than that! Haha. The line was weak as heck. Not what models showed but NoVA/DC and southern Md scored a quick win

If I would have known I would have chased to an eastern shore brewery lol

Of course I’ll get the area of precipitation that is broken Fitting, considering I haven’t received 1 full inch from any storm and probably only about 1.5” total on the season

This is a bust. Oh well. I got my day off today for what seems like it’s going to be almost nothing. By the time good precip comes in I bet I’ll be rain.

Nice...Let me have that Devils Milk

Its already a win for me though, Baltimore County rec and parks cancelled all activities for tomorrow so no work for me

I think the key is going to be that initial band in the morning...hopefully its a solid 2-3 hour period of snow and drops a quick 1" or 2"..but on the other hand, my fear is that the air will be pretty dry and itll just be pixie dust

I agree, my call would probably be 2" up there....unless the NAMs turn out correct lol

At 1pm 850s are -4 around Baltimore and -5 to -6 in NEMD. I think a good bit of that is snow

The GFS looks a bit better to me. Little colder and more precip at least for Baltimore to NE MD anyway

You’ve contributed a lot over the last few days

This was my write up on my weather page. I’m not going to share the images but it was the 850 temps on the GFS. Update on Saturday...I want to be more specific on what is going on and what may happen to make you understand a little so bare with me, this is long. So, the track of this storm that is going to go WELL west of our area is typically not favorable for wintry precipitation around these parts because southerly flow brings in warm air. But high pressure that I have circled in the last image is going to cause a cold Friday night and initially cold Saturday morning. That’s why I’ve been saying the earlier the precipitation comes in, the better. But eventually this warmer air coming from the south, wins out. 3 images here, the first is from 10am-1pm Saturday and shows generally light precipitation entering the area. The solid black line in these photos is the “32 degree line” in the upper atmosphere. Once this line pass any specific location, generally speaking, it cannon snow or sleet anymore and precipitation is rain or freezing rain. As you can see, as of 1pm that line has already crossed DC but it may still be cold enough for snow or sleet in Baltimore and pointe N&E. The next image is 4pm and this line has crossed Baltimore City so it’s now freezing rain or rain at that time and finally 7pm it’s crossed the entire state. So the problem we’re dealing with in terms of snow is a rapidly warming upper atmosphere the later in the day it gets. That combined with most models holding precipitation off until about 10am or later, equals not a great set up for an extended period of snow. If we can get this in earlier, then snow potential increases. I hope this makes you understand more. At this point, the best call is for 1” or less from I-95 and south. And perhaps up to 2” for near the PA line. Then a coating of sleet and perhaps extended ice to the north of 95. Cities, mostly plain rain after initial snow/sleet.

That said, the 3K is more reliable than 12K no? 3K will be in range tommorw morning i guess

the 12z NAM clown map is hilarious in relation to what the actual model shows lol

0z Icon won’t make any friends that’s for sure

True lol. I think I started my weather page the winter before that one. It certainly helped to get followers. I’m no where near them but 7500 strong now

Looks like it did to me..more snow than 12z for me anyway

Its pulling at hairs and its not really significant but the ICON somehow manages to be slightly better with a little initial snow in Central MD despite being a bit worse early on...grasping. Its still cold-ish until 00z

Yeah not much wiggle room. I dont know how realistic it is but we need a slight bump south at 18z

Yeah, Id take 13 out of the 20 and run for my backyard

GEFS anybody?

Canadian is warm...lol above freezing already by 18z...hopefully its not showing the CAD well enough

GFS Certainly went a step to euro but its still probably .5 frozen for NE MD, so Id take it but the bleeding needs to stop or we'll all end with a mix period at 32F temps that wont do crap before 33 and rain

Its probably a decent amount of sleet or ice for many of us but yeah not much snow

You know at some point we'll get a NAM'ing even if the storm cuts to Seattle