Baltimorewx

As PSU said, I’m in the snow anus of Maryland right now though so, I’d lean low haha. Good luck to everyone though. I’m not trying to be pessimistic, this is just my take and opinions. I understand some people may not care for it

If it’s puking snow I agree. The debate is if it’s gonna puke snow. Yes the NAM says yes. The other models? Not nearly as much. The euro is close though.

Don’t like relying on the NAM for QPF totals. I like it for temps. That’s me.

Fine, but verbatim the modeling isn’t really predicting it to be that much colder north and west of 95...unless you’re like in the high terrain.

What is this notion that it’s so much colder north and west of 95? Even the NAM has pretty much the entire area at 33 for the duration of the event

If it wasn’t such a marginal temperature event I’d be more inclined to agree. In the end, we’ll see

Advisories serve a purpose as well. Just think they potentially could have waited a little longer to decide whether to go with advisory’s or warnings. Especially being a Sunday morning event and not rush hour traffic during the week stuff. Nobody ever wants to downgrade either, and that may be coming later today or as the storm starts for some.

Now that all 12z data is in, this seems like a fairly uniform 2-4” event to me, mainly on colder surfaces obviously. Perhaps someone lucks out and picks up warning criteria of 5 or 6” but I’d bet most people fall in that 2-4” range. I think the NWS jumped the gun a little on the warnings. Hey it’s something but unfortunately we still can’t seem to get the late trends to be favorable with storms right now.

The QPF forecasts differ. GFS and Canadian are .3 or less for I95 and northwest while NAMS and I guess the euro are a uniform .5-.6 for most everyone

That’s still a slight decrease but verbatim we’d all take

Yes. I was hoping for some pre dawn thumping. 7-11 can still work so long as the rates are there, but not as much room for error

My write up on my weather page...you can pull the QPF images for yourselves lol. Ok let’s look at a couple things folks. As you recall, I’ve been saying this storm tomorrow will be all about the rates and heavy precipitation. The amount of precipitation we call it in the weather world QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast). In my opinion at least .5 of precipitation is the magic number here. If we get .5 precipitation (which is the blue shaded color in these maps) then I think we have a good shot at picking up a quick 3-4-5” of snow Sunday morning. The NAM model is showing this for most of the region as you can see in the 2nd image. On the other hand the Canadian (pictured first) and the GFS models have the .5 line over onto the eastern shore. So if those models are right the Baltimore area would only get about .3 of precipitation. In my opinion that WONT work for significant snow accumulations with marginal temps as the precipitation will be only light to moderate and any snowfall rates won’t be able to overcome the warmer ground so we would mainly just see a little slush and that’s it. We NEED the models with the .5 and above QPF to verify so that we get moderate to heavy snow and the rates overcome the warm ground. Unfortunately we just don’t have the best data agreement right now, so we’ll have to see how this plays out thru the day and into the morning.

Canadian holds on further east solution too. Heaviest snow on eastern shore. Looks like a Cambridge to Dover Jackpot

I agree with you with the latest trends.

It’s a crappy run for most of us. But maybe it’s wrong

Right or wrong GFS ain’t budging. Just really low QPF

Thanks. But apparently I need to post less!

Am I not supposed to mention the ICON? Lol it may not be a very good model, but it’s still relevant in the 12z suite

Sunday wasn’t too bad. Got 4” but only had decent rates for 90 mins or so. Otherwise it was mainly pixie dust. I only added a dusting Monday and Tuesday though. I got more rain Monday morning than any snow Monday and Tuesday. So overall, it was kind of a fail in my book. I like the potential of this one being thumpy but we need the rates with the borderline temps

ICON for what it’s worth is kind of a fail. Little decent period between 7-10am but otherwise it seems mixy and lighter QPf

I also don’t love the trend in the slightly later start time. Getting this in predawn would have been ideal. While not terrible still, the trend has been to get things in after 5am and the “heavier stuff” after 7-8am

I personally think the GFS gets too much of a bad rap, but that’s just my opinion.

Yeah true. I’m just overall noticing the lowering of QPF a bit. And we better hope the GFS is wrong lol

I agree with that. I think the over 6” calls by some are a bit aggressive with the marginal temps. We really need the rates and while maybe not a huge trend, the overall trend the last 12 hours has been to lower QPF a little bit

NAMs are okay but not their monster runs of yesterday. We’ll see how the other 12zs come in today. Thinking this is a borderline advisory/warning event. Right on the fence I think between both.