WidreMann
-
Posts
7,874 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by WidreMann
-
Nino failed to really materialize and MJO screwed us. All of these things were sort of options on the table, not great indicators. It all comes down to good blocking around Greenland, -EPO and an active southern stream. Everything else is just proxies on that and not at all guaranteed.
-
Y'all, that's the difference from previous forecast, not a forecast of +3 to +4.
-
It is funny, though, how a massive outbreak has now turned into basically a day of seasonably cold weather.
-
Tuesday snow chances are dwindling for central NC. And then a mild start to February. Only model still showing cold February is the CFS. See y'all next winter!
-
The mountains will block that.
-
A lot of the big mets were betting on a big pattern change too. It's not just the weenies. The MJO collapsed along with El Nino and the SSW failed to propagate downward much. A bunch of maybes turned into nos.
-
I feel like we had something like that back in 2000.
-
DRY.
-
Very cold, but dry, on the GFS so far.
-
I'm not, because when I saw that the PV split failed to propagate downwards and the MJO crashed, this wouldn't happen.
-
This pattern is turning to shit very quickly.
-
LR GFS looks a lot better. It's not great by any stretch, but it shows more of a pattern re-load than a breakdown, and keeps general troughiness over eastern NA.
-
And then the pattern, such as it is, breaks down.
-
Never mind, GFS sends it down into Florida. Ripe to make a comeback, of course.
-
We just need a dang high pressure. Apparently, that's a lot to ask for these days.
-
00z GFS looking alright. If that northern energy can go a little faster (or a lot slower), we're in business.
-
I don't think they are dry. I think they fail to get cold air in time for when the low bombs off the east coast. That's why I'm also skeptical of central NC seeing much of anything.
-
Lol. I can guarantee you whatever happens, it won't look like that.
-
Yeah, just looking at the 168 frame, it would send it over the coastal plain and only the mountains would likely see any wintry precip.
-
The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early.
-
I don't see a Pac Jet on the GFS.
-
I've more or less given up on a wintry pattern for this area. I mean, that doesn't mean we can't squeak out a storm in one of these cold shots, but the SSW/PV split, -AO, MJO, etc. are all failing to materialize and the models are backing off a true wintry pattern. At least it's not two weeks of a heat ridge, so I'll take that.
-
NCEP site shows much less support for -NAO/-AO. PNA is near neutral too. MJO went COD and now is back in the unfavorable zones. When is this magical cold pattern going to set up? To me it just looks like cold shots and warmups for the next two weeks. Sure, the CFS shows really cold weeks 2-4, but when do I truly believe the CFS (unless it says warm, then we can trust it).
-
Or just the general difficulty with pattern changes. I am worried, though, about the MJO heading back to unfavorable phases. It might put a hold on things till we get into February, though it'll still be cold at least.
-
00z Euro drops backend snow for next weekend. The models are abandoning us. I'm sure it's fluctuation, but it's annoying.
