WidreMann

Looks like it will still have issues with being too cold and snowy in the medium-range.

Nino failed to really materialize and MJO screwed us. All of these things were sort of options on the table, not great indicators. It all comes down to good blocking around Greenland, -EPO and an active southern stream. Everything else is just proxies on that and not at all guaranteed.

Y'all, that's the difference from previous forecast, not a forecast of +3 to +4.

It is funny, though, how a massive outbreak has now turned into basically a day of seasonably cold weather.

My amateur experience is that the FV3 is worse than the GFS. They said it has a cold bias, and that's very clear in comparing the charts. It needs to bake more.

Tuesday snow chances are dwindling for central NC. And then a mild start to February. Only model still showing cold February is the CFS. See y'all next winter!

The mountains will block that.

A lot of the big mets were betting on a big pattern change too. It's not just the weenies. The MJO collapsed along with El Nino and the SSW failed to propagate downward much. A bunch of maybes turned into nos.

I feel like we had something like that back in 2000.

DRY.

Very cold, but dry, on the GFS so far.

I'm not, because when I saw that the PV split failed to propagate downwards and the MJO crashed, this wouldn't happen.

This pattern is turning to shit very quickly.

LR GFS looks a lot better. It's not great by any stretch, but it shows more of a pattern re-load than a breakdown, and keeps general troughiness over eastern NA.

And then the pattern, such as it is, breaks down.