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PaulyFromPlattsburgh

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Everything posted by PaulyFromPlattsburgh

  1. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    at 168 no phase. energy way offshore. onto the next run. this run took it into bermuda
  2. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    no closed 500mb southern stream low. at 164 it already scoots offshore with no NS phase. looks like a miss
  3. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    unlike 12z yesterday. that southern stream just scoots east and does not energize and slow down for NS but instead drags the baroclinic zone east with it
  4. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    strong southern and northern stream vorticities just lack of coupling at least through 156 on pivotal. southern stream way ahead of NS
  5. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    looks like euro is coming in a close miss. again
  6. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Yeh blizzard into Louisiana. Nuts
  7. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    ICON was classic benchmark. CMC coastal hugger, GFS just SE benchmark. You are right tho, all pretty similar. pretty good agreement at the development of a potent coastal storm this far out. Encouraging!
  8. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    good thing is lakes are open for buisness for you guys still. lets hope something can trigger them to lightup. wish P burgh benefited from the lakes haha. very rare
  9. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Yes a surface high would be great. yeh verbatim surface temps are between 33-35 but with such a dynamic strong storm im sure thats isothermal snow for many even down to the coast that run!
  10. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    I wouldn’t worry about the long range ICON. GEFS and EPS still look pretty good. We will see. Small window of opportunity for this to phase perfectly with indicies transiently favorable
  11. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    still coming down nice. radar filled in well with temps crashing just in time to cash in just a bit. in this putrid leftover stale airmass.
  12. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    radar filling in nice. mhm. no models had me getting any accum. snow. but all day it looked like many areas were colder than forecasted. hopefully it wont switch back to rain. NWS had champlain valley as all rain also with no snow indications.
  13. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    it is absolutely ripping outside. heavy snow. biggest flakes i ever seen. so wet. sticking to everything. highlight of my day . might get a quick inch with some moisture leftover
  14. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    switched to all snow. 32 big flakes. im in the valley also low elevation. nice surprise
  15. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    33 degrees with a mix of rain and snow.
  16. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    boxing day 2010 http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/PostMortems/CSTARPostMortems/2010/dec26_27blizzard/dec2010blizzard.htm
  17. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    why are we even looking at precip type verbatim atm? the signal is there for a significant storm. something we have not had to even track in a long time
  18. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    you are 100% right . looking at 168 it looks like it is just about to become a cutoff but by 196 that NS dives in quickly and perfectly to phase with it. I doubt we will replicate this solution verbatim again next run
  19. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    you forgot the ketchup!!
  20. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    198 we have a 971mb south of long island. big bomb. could tell from the early stages. happy tracking !! EVERYONE except extreme COASTAL areas absolutely hammered this run. It was so amped. so dynamic. many cash in as temps will crash
  21. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    yes classic on this run
  22. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    yes this looks very wound up. maybe even to much so this run. great sign at this point out as mentioned
  23. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    987 into deleware at 192! wow. coastal hugger? we shall see
  24. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    996mb low on cape hatt at 186
  25. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    by the looks of H5. THIS is gonna be a bomb
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