I mentioned earlier that big changes in the strat like SSW's that seem to always be pushed back by models aren't valid. GFS actually bumped this up a day. Will have to see what the euro and ensembles do. Certainly something to watch out for.
Big thing to watch is if the models keep moving the goal posts with them. If a SSW keeps showing up at the end of the run, it's not valid. If it gets closer as time goes on, it might be legit.
I'm not even sure what to think at this point. Is a low spinning out like that over the lakes even a valid solution? I know this is a rare/unusual pattern so models will likely struggle for quite a bit longer.
Yeah it's bad. The last 5 or so years have been pretty comical at times. Outside of northern parts of the state we always find a way into the screw zone.