Seems like a nice high ratio hybrid clipper is possible Thursday-Friday. Personally these are some of my favorite events, but with everything this winter I could see it going poof soon.
It just seems like each winter gets more futile than the last, but it also seems to all be bad luck. One storm goes east, the next to NW, and potentially one to the south feels like crappy luck instead of genuinely bad patterns.
It seems likely this one misses just NW and isn't strong enough to give us any backend snow. Then the follow up wave early next week gets suppressed...
Right now the shifts have been more to the NW of a lot of us. With two waves still being modeled beforehand, I imagine we will see a lot of shifting. With that being said we have all the ingredients for a big Ohio Valley storm
It has also been a lot razor thin cutoffs, especially in the last decade. Places just 20 miles N and NW of Columbus consistently get 6"+ while Columbus proper will be all rain or sleet. There might be microclimate reasons relating to the Scioto Valley.
We still have the triple threat of unforecasted warm tongue, sleet with surface temps of 12 degrees, and a fat 50 mile wide dry slot that are inevitable and Columbus gets them with every storm. This is why CMH hasn't measured >/= 6" from a single event since 2015.
GFS is on it's own with that solution. I've seen a few meteorologists say that they think it's possible for a gfs solutions where the ULL closes off early and south, but we will have to wait and see. I'm still intrigued with every model really hammering down lower snow totals in the Scioto Valley. I know how valleys can funnel warm air and create a precip shadow, but it seems a bit overdone.