Gino27

Man this thing is screaming NW. I went from being on the NW fringe of heavier snow to almost a mix in just 12 hours of runs. Hopefully just windshield wiper effect here.

It's both northern IN, ILN, and CLE. From what I've read so far is ILN is treating this as a two part storm and they don't think those areas will reach warning criteria from either wave, despite ending up with 8" overall.

Classic lowball advisory calling for 5"-7" here. NWS must not be buying the NW bumps yet. Even though I'm in a warning, I feel like areas to my NW will out perform.

Well everyone. It's finally upon us.

I like nice people

CLE and ILN are really hugging the further east idea that’s the gfs and others had. I understand they consider a lot more than just models but it’s kinda appalling given that the more eastern models aren’t even initializing the high pressure correctly.

This is just crazy...

Models seem to be overdoing the heights that push the storm east compared meso analysis. I wonder if the SE trend over the last 24 hours is really legit.

How could I forget Feb 2010! Ugh what storms those two were.

The SE joggle on the majority of models has been a bit concerning. Still not worried because this should drop a fairly wide swath of snow, so being outside the jackpot won't be a big deal.

ILN AFD: However, some important differences remain in low placement and intensity. The 00Z GFS is running faster and a bit further south while the ECMWF is slower, stronger, and further north. Due to these differences, have continued a rather broad band of 4-8 inches area wide. Certainly there is a good possibility local areas will see nearly a foot of snow with higher drifts based on QPF, snow ratios, duration of the event, and wind fields. In addition, as the low reaches the vicinity of the central Appalachians, some forecast soundings -- particularly the 00Z GFS -- show a deep saturated layer centered in the DGZ. Will closely monitor track and strength of the low, as these will play a critical role in a detailed accumulation forecast leading up to the event. Central Ohio hasn't had a foot from a single storm in 13 years. Wow.

I see myself dead center of the 15+ band. lol

Exactly haha! I do miss the days when I didn't really track snow events and snow was a surprise, but there's nothing like watching a storm come together on models and verifying

Half sarcasm, half realistic I guess. Being a weenie has gotten me burned so many times lol. I can't lie I'm getting really excited for this setup just as I was for the last storm. We've sure had some putters out of good setup before, but I'm even seeing some '08 similarities (minus the deform blizzard part).

Looks too good to be true given the way these had evolved over the past 5 years. There's always going to be a catch that shows up in the short range (dry air, mixing, shunt in track etc...)

Yeah ILN lowballs everything and ends up right 90% of the time. Of course we can't guarantee the track of the storm given the system out ahead of it. However the Mon/Tue system should be widespread enough that along I-71 should be somewhat safe, other than the fear of mixing like the euro put out last night. The warm tongue around 850mb means business.

From ILN's AFD: Heading into Sunday night and Monday, guidance is beginning to show shortwave activity ejecting out of the central U.S. trough. This induces weak isentropic lift Sunday night into Monday morning, so PoPs have been introduced. Thermal profiles look to support mainly light snow, with some light freezing rain and sleet mixing in for northeast Kentucky potentially up into the lower Scioto River valley. NBM thermal fields appear too cold aloft, so blended in NAM and CONSALL data. After a brief respite Monday afternoon, the next disturbance arrives from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday. Once again, snow should be the main precipitation type. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few inches from this system -- though uncertainly remains high on track/intensity of low pressure. Once again, warm air aloft could mean some sleet/freezing rain in the southeast. I didn't know we were just looking at a "few inches"

Well now most models are in somewhat of agreement over the OHV. Time for a mega trend to the coast!

I know it usually does this, but it still worries me on the chance it's being the 1st to catch on to a trend.

Could be typical progressive bias from GFS or another one swept out from under us. Time will tell.

Each run is just weaker and weaker. Idk if this one will survive tbh.

Looks like it's still holding as a decent storm for the OHV. I doubted a big dog from the start, but ratios could be on my side.

This is kinda sad lol. Maybe it'll rebound

I feel a real "polished turd" storm at best. These threats just don't stand the test of time anymore.