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Mr. Kevin

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Everything posted by Mr. Kevin

  1. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, im intrigued about the possible SSW event. Last year it didnt propagate correctly. They are tricky. Would the teleconnections do dramatic things if the SSW is the real deal? I was curious about that.
  2. Mr. Kevin
    Hi nc. Will you do your mjo updates and where it currently is and where it going? You are very knowledgeable on that.
  3. Mr. Kevin
    Jax, you and carver do a great job btw. The mjo charts on the cpc and dacula weather are so misleading because i dont know where it is now lol. I thought it was in phase 8 fixing to enter 1, which i thought were colder phases, especially in December. Is that correct or not? Sorry for the confusion. If those locations arent good, where is the best location for accurate mjo stuff?
  4. Mr. Kevin
    Thanks bob. Dacula weather mjo is a site where about 12 different opinions on the mjo progression are there, but its confusing because even the ecmwf has more different views and one says something different than the other one lol. Check it out. I am just trying to find out where the mjo is now and which has the best handle. Forgot this. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php Thats where i go. Hasn't been updated today yet.
  5. Mr. Kevin
    Hi Bob. I have a question. When i go to: dacula weather mjo, it has various models showing the progress of the mjo moving forward. Which model has the best estimate of the mjo forecast propigation? I am just confused.
  6. Mr. Kevin
    Hi jax. Do we want the mjo to stay in phases 8-2 as long as possible for this time of year or does it matter only for later on? Im not sure which one we want.
  7. Mr. Kevin
    It is tricky i guess. I just don't understand why people think we are in a modoki elniño. If we are, we should have a pretty cold winter, but not everytime. Its all confusing to me.
  8. Mr. Kevin
    Hi carver. ISOTHERM'S forcast scares me too lol. I dont want him to be right if we have any chance this winter. Why do you think the epo/wpo are going positive? Is it the mjo moving to unfavorable phases? I am still clueless with that.
  9. Mr. Kevin
    Hi jomo. We may get cold again when mjo makes it back to the 8,1, and 2 phases? It looks like we are going to warm up for sure once mjo makes it to the 4 5 and 6 phases. Im just confused on all this lol.
  10. Mr. Kevin
    I am kevin from ne Arkansas. I do have a question. What do we need to watch for to see if December and rest of the winter will be cold? I think most are curious about what.
  11. Mr. Kevin
    Hi Bob. I have a question. Did we have a positive IOD in 13/14 and 14/15 winter like we have so far? I am wondering why after November 2014 it warmed up dramatically until end of January 2015.
  12. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, i think people would want it to be cold during winter. Shorter wavelengths can allow it to be colder, but we will see if the longer wavelengths allow that or not.
  13. Mr. Kevin
    I will say that people who think it will be warm this winter may not like cold weather. Or perhaps skeptical over last winter, which makes sense. I think most want a cold active winter. Its been a while.
  14. Mr. Kevin
    Hi jax. I ain't no weather expert like most on here, but i feel like this pattern COULD last until March. Too many things that point that way. Not wishcasting, just being real lol. Now, if things shift, which is possible, then all bets are off.
  15. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, Anthony Masiello mentioned about a sea of okhotsk low not going anywhere soon and it just popped up based on him.
  16. Mr. Kevin
    Jax, i have a question. Wouldn't it be preferred to have the warmest anomalies from the central Pacific west from there for winter? I dont think we want to see the 1+2 region warm up to much. Hopefully it dont happen. Would you say its still a little early to make a prediction for winter now or do you have a good idea?
  17. Mr. Kevin
    Hi john. I am from Arkansas. I have a question. What do we need to see take place for the flow to slow down from being so fast like you have mentioned many times so far. Is it a -nao or more than that?
  18. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, this is what i am confused about. The IOD is pretty positive now. I know it will weaken eventually but from what i have read that phase allows the mjo to be in niño phases, which are 8,1, and 2. Those are usually colder phases east of the rockies i think during winter. There are other factors also. Why are people going warm for this winter? Is it climate change affecting their decisions i guess? Imo HM is the best in the business. If he cancels winter, then its time to give up lol.
  19. Mr. Kevin
    When you do your outlook, try to include the positives and negatives going into winter if you dont mind. Hopefully its colder than last winter.
  20. Mr. Kevin
    Hi Don. Wanted to first off say i respect you as a weather knowledge person. I appreciate your time and dedication to the forums. I do have a few questions. What is your confidence level on a warmer than average winter? I am still hearing varying opinions from very respected weather professionals, like yourself. Its still a little early to really know, but you may have a good idea. Not sure. I hope its not like last winter, which started off good, but ended really warm. Also, what would be the most realistic analog unless its still too early to even guess.
  21. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, i thought the way November started and first half of December it would be a legendary cold winter lol last winter, but I guess i was incorrect. I live a little further west than you, but it may not make that much difference. Do you think 13-14 is even a possibility for winter?
  22. Mr. Kevin
    Griteater, i have paid Attention to you for a while now and you seem to be very astute with your weather knowledge. When will you post your winter outlook?
  23. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, nobody really knows what will take place. Imo, by mid to end of November we should have a better idea of what may happen. I dont know if we want it cold or warm in November lol.
  24. Mr. Kevin
    Is it going to take big changes to get things the way we want them for winter? If it is, then i guess we got time, which is good for us i suppose. The qbo and the IOD has me most intrigued.
  25. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, i am not sure its a good thing to see it real cold this early. I live in Arkansas, but that may not make any difference. It was cold last November and in 2011 and the following winters blowtorched. Alot of interesting signs already.
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