binbisso

Euro also has the day 9/10 system as the GFS and CMC verbatim too warm for the coast but snow not too far to our Northwest still plenty of time to work out the details on this. Definitely looks like a period to watch

850 do get above 0 Celsius between 8 and 9 p.m. for most of the area but barely 4 northwest suburbs so I stand corrected in my post above

That's a nice run by the euro. .6 l e from my area with 4in of that being snow I'll take that any day. My feeling is that the southerly flow at the surface is very weak until we're several hours into the precipitation field and as others have posted 850s stay below 32 degrees the entire storm. Temperatures are going to struggle to get above freezing until we're well Into the Storm especially the further away from the coast you are

A big difference with this system is that we will be below freezing for about 36 hours before the onset of precipitation. And not just slightly below but well down into the teens anywhere north and west of New York City. 850s are cold and 2 meter wind speeds are variable and very light at 1 p.m. Saturday before the shift to the south wind and gradually increases. this should allow snow to hold on a little longer again mainly north and west of the city and probably not too far north and west. could be a nice little surprise 2 to 4in north of I-95 my big concern is how much moisture will be available with the initial thump

It's a pretty classic setup a 1047 MB high pressure is tough to move out in mid January. I don't think the models are going to have a tough time with this one still have about 48 hours before the shortwave gets into better sampling area off the northwest coast. Also the G EFS wants to transfer the low south of us which could keep precipitation more on the Frozen side even down to the coast but we shall see

Well the Euro just came in much colder with a weaker surface low and stronger high pressure to our North 4 to 6 in on the clown Maps for all the big cities from Philly to Boston and the northwest suburbs

http://<img src="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gif" alt="GFS MJO index ensemble plume"/> changes continue for mjo. edit: can someone explain how to insert images to my posts

Yes don i agree with when and duration of the pattern change. One could argue the extended eps is the best look so far this winter. It did nail this torch period and has done better than the gefs since dec 1st.

I really can't explain it but I have this condition since I was a kid and I am now in my late 50s. I remember my 14th birthday I got a weather radio that used to broadcast in megahertz I'd wake up every morning at 4:30 a.m. when the new update came out. what I do like is tracking snow storms and how the landscape looks during and after. The one thing I hate is driving in it

I just pulled up next to a salt spreader truck in the Bronx I rolled down my window the driver rolled down his I told him you'll be getting plenty of overtime in about two weeks he looked at me like I was nuts he said I hope so I said me too

Not a single post about the upcoming pattern in over 3 hours. EPS looks good starting around day 8 and only getting better. Negative EPO positive PNA showing up later in the Run. I guess if a South East Ridge was going to pop in the long range or the mjo was going into the warm phases they'll be post after post here.every other sub-forum is buzzing with optimism except here.

Yeah it will be great to get phase 8 heading into our snowiest month should make February very interesting

Also of note if long-range guidance is correct it doesn't look like we go below normal and dry but it looks very active love the lower Heights just north of Hawaii in the extended. Maybe we can salvage part of January after all

That's a big change on the GE FS rmm plots for the mjo. Takes it through 6 very Amplified almost to phase 7 at the end. Yesterday had the wave dying off in six and looping back towards five. Also if guidance is remotely correct starting next week Thursday we look to more seasonable to below-normal temperatures while the mjo is still in its warm phases

Nice band moving through Islip right now I don't think any of the models had precipitation this far north

Any reports of rain or snow on the South Shore of Long Island or Central New Jersey Radar returns look good there

Radar really exploding over Central New Jersey and out over the ocean still looks to be moving northward. A lot of times models do not handle these bands well and they can shift further North then currently modeld

There's a band over the ocean that's moving into New York City right now looks like it wants to connect with the main bands that's in Eastern Pennsylvania the radar looks really good I wonder if we're going to be in for any surprises tonight

When looking at radar it amazes me how most of this precipitation is going to miss our area

This is the National Weather Service latest discussion .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... HRRR model is depicting afternoon snowfall upstream but seems to be too slow with its movement and too far to the south. Main issue for tonight is the snow. Expecting this to occur mainly this evening to shortly after midnight. Timeframe of around 7pm to 12am. There is a possibility depending on low position of some moderate to heavy snow in that timeframe, with higher chances of seeing this across Eastern Suffolk County Long Island which will be relatively closer to the low as it is deepening late this evening. Eastern Long Island also probably still seeing some snow shortly after midnight, ending around 1-2am there. Low pressure moves off Mid-Atlantic and tracks south of Long Island close to 40N/70W benchmark while deepening slightly. It further deepens as it moves farther offshore and away from the region overnight into very early Wednesday. Precipitation amounts vary between the different forecast models. They vary with the precip area north and west of the low. 12Z NAM higher than other guidance but still want to weigh the NAM solution in because of possible banding and any additional deepening of low would result in expansion of precipitation area and a more quick cooling of boundary layer. Consensus of model data shows a relatively larger area of precipitation encompassing the coastal sections of the region with most interior areas like Orange, Putnam, and Western Passaic counties being on the outer fringe of this precip area. Precipitation is between a few hundredths of an inch to about three tenths of an inch, lowest for far NW sections of region, highest SE sections of region. Much of this occurs this evening, lasting longer for Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut with some lingering snow shortly after midnight. There is potential for higher amounts of snow of a few inches more than forecast if low is stronger and is closer to the coast. Models keep a half to three quarter of an inch offshore but if this occurs farther northwest over the coastal areas, there would a mix of rain and snow changing to a relatively heavier snow, and about 2 to 3 inches more snow than forecast across all coastal areas.

Just took this off the National Weather Service site I think they made a mistake can anyone confirm Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 340 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 CTZ007>012-NJZ006-106>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-082045- Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield- Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)- Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk- Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 340 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Snow this evening could be heavy at times and could result in snow of 2 to 4 inches. This will lead to slippery conditions on the roads and low visibilities. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Snow squalls will be possible on Wednesday, mainly in the late morning through the afternoon. This will bring brief low visibilities down to a quarter mile or less. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.

Way west at least 50 miles nice hit from New York City right up into New England

It looks like the Euro ens are better than the operational looks like 1 to 2 in average snowfall from Long Island through Eastern Connecticut Rhode Island Southeast Mass I don't have the breakdown wonder if there's a few nice Solutions in there

Yeah it's going to be insane you get the UK set up and that's a bad ice storm for central New England North maybe even pressing down into our farthest northwest suburbs. If you get that second shortwave to weaken as has been the case inside of five days this winter so far that's definitely a possibility. also 60s New York City on South teens Albany North what a temperature contrast

What the heck was the ukie drinking today. That's a nice hit from Long Island into Eastern Mass