binbisso

It looks like the mjo heading into phase 8 in early November could mute the warm-up or at least the warm-up won't last as long as guidance suggest. I'm hearing that the mjo may frequently be in Phase 8 1 and 2 this winter instead of the maritime continent don't know if it's going to be a big player this year with such a strong La Nina

The mjo in Phase 5 for most of October didn't have the usual outcome here in the Northeast which is usually much below-normal temperatures. We will finish solidly about normal throughout the region

Have sleet mixing in with the rain here in Mount Vernon with a temperature of 37 degrees

That's pretty amazing how one month can be consistently warmer then normal for so long what's interesting when looking at the departures, this October should be very close to 2010 when looking at the current long-range guidance. 2010 also had an amplified mjo in Phase 5 as you stated in the other thread and it looks quite similar.

After a warm wet week next week That's a pretty cold look on the ensembles today starting around day 9 going through the end of their runs. The mjo looks to get Amplified in Phase 4 and Phase 5 around that time and I believe it's a colder phase for the Northeast during October I could be wrong though. Any Merit to a colder second half of October?

70° here after hitting a high of 71 and windy

Thanks. Looks like we will be making a road trip there. My daughter wants to go now. I want to go when there's snow in the forecast.

@dryslot. My youngest daughter is entering college next fall. She likes bowdoin college in Brunswick ME. What's your opinion and the general opinion of this school? Also of any other posters have any knowledge of the school I would greatly appreciate it thanks

My doctor said it takes about 3 to 4 weeks for the body to produce antibodies that a test results can detect. It's probably very likely I caught this between February and April as that's when it was the worst here that would put me at 4 to 6 months with antibodies.

Yeah that's what makes covid-19 scary we know that about 80% of the people who get it have no or mild symptoms however why do some healthy young and middle-aged people get very sick from it there has to be other factors that we don't know yet that are causing this

Yes and good to know the antibody test are better now. I worked right thru as i am in the food industry. My job is in the south bronx one of the hardest hit areas. Just surprised that at my age and i smoke that i had no symptoms. My doc says right now i cant get reinfected but isnt sure how long antibodies will last

Went for my yearly physical monday. Asked my doc to do an antibody test for covid. Surprisingly came back positive. My doc said that i definitely had covid. I am 58 and a smoker otherwise in good health. I had no symptoms. Is it possible that my doc is wrong and results were a false positive?

What a great day. 79 dp 58!! I thought it was supposed to be hot and humid. Last night and early this morning dews were in the mid 70s. Very uncomfortable but What a pleasant surprise today.

How accurate are the covid-19 antibody test I went for my physical yesterday and had one done it came back positive I saw it on my chart from my provider I have not spoken to my doctor yet it says that there could be false positives from other covid-19 infections in the past. Never had any symptoms

Yeah not surprising LGA hit 94 as well as Newark but 99% of the region was between 88 and 92 which was well forecast buy all weather Outlets. Those two sites will always run warmer and are not a very good representation of their region.

77* in the bronx. Very unlikely to get to mid to upper 90's here. I checked several forecast not one has a higher temperature than 90 degrees for any part of our area today. That would be Northern New Jersey New York City metro Long Island Southeast New York and Southwest Connecticut don't know where those mid and Upper 90 are coming from. Maybe Central Southern New Jersey and the Philly area

Don what kind of increase in the new daily normals are we looking at heading into January 2021 when we lose the much cooler 80s and add in the 2010 s which were much warmer

That's interesting I thought the GFS runs about 5 degrees too cold. I think the more accurate way to portray temperatures for the next 8 days would be taking an average from the three major Global models Euro GFS in UK which is what I assumed you did. To use the GFS to gauge temperatures for the next 8 days does not make sense.

Pretty typical summer weather Saturday through Tuesday with 85 to 90 degree readings for most of the area. Then looks like a big fail by the Euro for Wednesday possibly into Thursday with the big heat its showing. Friday looks like tropical remnants could affect the area then big cool down next week end.

I think you need to use a different formula for calculating how warm is going to be over the next eight days. In reality this period Was -2 for Central Park. It's not like you're remotely close. The park is at + 1.1 for the month

Yes we paid a heavy price here. Also what's interesting in the article is that 32% of those 17 and under had antibodies ( highest of any age group as i have assumed all along) and that number could be higher as it is the the least tested age group. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens when schools open which seems like it will be delayed as the teachers union are fighting the city and said they will strike unless every child is tested prior to reopening.

More good news.. What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought? Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought. But in parts of New York, London and Mumbai, for example, it is not inconceivable that there is already substantial immunity to the coronavirus, scientists said. “I’m quite prepared to believe that there are pockets in New York City and London which have substantial immunity,” said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “What happens this winter will reflect that.”

Very good results here in nyc.. New York City on Tuesday released more than 1.46 million coronavirus antibody test results, the largest number to date, providing more evidence of how the virus penetrated deeply into some lower-income communities while passing more lightly across affluent parts of the city. In one ZIP code in Queens, more than 50 percent of people who had gotten tested were found to have antibodies, a strikingly high rate. But no ZIP code south of 96th Street in Manhattan had a positive rate of more than 20 percent. Across the city, more than 27 percent of those tested had positive antibody results. The borough with the highest rate was the Bronx, at 33 percent. Manhattan had the lowest rate, at 19 percent. The data is likely to renew discussion about whether some neighborhoods or communities in New York City may be nearing herd immunity — the point at which enough people have immunity that the virus is no longer able to spread widely within a community.

One large tree down with the power line. I still have power but some of my neighbors don't tree branches all over the place very reminiscent of Sandy