It’s there now. Probably easier to see it from College of duPage. I don’t understand why they kept the 5% all the way down into NC, I think even in this morning’s update, that was kinda questionable.
edit: guess the sun’s been out more down there, and shear is better so it makes sense.
In the northern neck, not expecting it to make it this far. Was looking forward to tomorrow but I feel this may have tamped it down a bit. We’ll have to see.
edit: ah, I see that scenario was questioned earlier too.
This NAM run kept the look, perhaps beefier cape in spots, but that could be NAM doing NAM stuff + run to run variability. I do notice a transition to inverted V’s after 15z, but that was present before too.
21z has almost 4000 CAPE, 54kts 0-6km shear with decent backing further east it seems, 176 3Cape, crazy stuff, but it’s the NAM, still interesting to see for now.
I think I’m a storm repellent or something. A week before I get home, they get decent storms. After I get home, the place i left gets storms 2 days in a row. I don’t think I’ve heard thunder in a month now.
It’s funny because the cringe-tastic dialogue is mostly stuff only weather people will cringe at. Everyone else is probably thinking: “yeah, that makes sense.”
SWPC has G3 now as the latest obs. Do we need it to be higher to see stuff or is there some sort of lag? Should I be expecting a fade in and out situation?
My numbers this year are randomly generated, with 98 being the basepoint, and the highest observed at each location as the maximum.
DCA: 102
IAD: 104
BWI: 101
RIC: 104
Apparently they have a range that they prefer to live in and some are really stubborn and will try to find where they live again. Short distances are probably best.