Rhino16
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Everything posted by Rhino16
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Yeah, it’s only been maybe a day, starting with the UKMET last night.
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Dangit, I told myself I would try to be consistent this year. Got busy and forgot to enter -
That’s just cruel… (but please… make it happen)
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Yup. It always weathers exactly when I really don’t need it to. Usually right before or after I leave a place. Just cursed.
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I’m noticing that the snowiest solution over the past few days seems to have the low further south over Oklahoma, instead of further south/west over the Texas Panhandle.
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18z AIFS is a step up for precip amounts, with ≈0.8” for the richmond area, but the resolution is bad so can’t comment on temperatures, ptype, or much really. Especially without soundings.
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They’re only as good as the data we put in. We’re launching the same 2 weather balloons per day, and it’s the vertical data that’s tricky. I can absolutely see why the uncertainty is as high as it is at times even today.
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Again, the data out in the ocean isn’t really there to be fed into the models at this point. Once the energy gets over land and the models have that information down, then I’ll throw in the towel.
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Wasn’t the NAM really good for that one? It was consistently on an island of its own showing 10”+. Makes me want the NAM now. Definitely a good feel right now, but a little doubt too.
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I would find an inch to be disappointing. I’m waiting for the system to get over land / better sampling before getting disappointed though.
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I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames.
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Did you not get in on the Dec 2018 storm?
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I can’t even do rain in December anymore! How am I supposed to do the frozen kind?! I guess the distant thunder is fun?
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Seems like the line of storms will miss me in richmond. But, there maybe something interesting happening at the tail end of it.
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At least I have this afternoon’s severe threat to track as a distraction while waiting for 18z!
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Euro would hurt for the Short Pumpers and such.
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Some goofy hodographs there…
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This just seems like the typical evolution of cold events. I tend to think models sometimes overdo cold at long range and it gets more reasonable the closer we get to the arrival of the cold air.
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And they put it in a place (albeit a fun one) that doesn’t get snow! I guess next year at Denver is the year to go.
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Annoying the good pattern has to happen during AMS. edit: accidentally hit enter after the first word, sorry
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January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Rhino16 replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
What does under-dispersion mean? Is it just what you describe where it’s too similar to the OP? I guess it isn’t making enough tweaks for each different outcome? -
06z GFS not really as good for us with the 6th storm
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I can’t be too down if we’re seeing fantasy storms. I can’t remember seeing too many of those in recent years. If it means I need to drive up a hill to see some snow, I’ll do it. As long as it’s cold.
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At the NWR station they are at 4° already. Down from 17° at 4:40pm.
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Is it about to pull that double sw combining thing again just later?
