Prospero

We're still a couple days out in Tampa Bay. Tracks do change, so hoping for good news. Still concerning to see the predictions right now. The day Irma was coming into Florida, Tampa Bay was the target but it went in much farther South than expected. We still got hammered by strong TS conditions which created a big mess.

Not looking good for Tampa Bay. Our home is five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay at about 15ft elevation. We are not considered in a flood zone, but a 15 foot storm surge is not impossible.

If that happens we just worry about a wind/rain event as all the water in Tampa Bay will be sucked out and pushed into Sarasota Bay or wherever.

Hurricane Agnes was biggest surge we've had in about 100 years. Wind was a non-issue, rain was nothing memorable. But the 10ft Storm Surge across Tampa Bay was indeed something to remember. That is a 10ft surge. We hear about 30 ft sometimes when we are in the cone of a big one.

Evacuations won't happen here in Tampa Bay until Warnings are out. Supplies are already hard to find; water, batteries, etc. Supermarkets and stores like Walmart have been packed. Some of are "getting ready" to put up window protections and batten things down. But we'll wait a while still. What I am doing in my backyard is something that I've wanted to do for a few years anyway, ever since we recreated our yard after Irma. LOL

For Tampa Bay that is what do not want to see. I'm working in my backyard, so many "things" out there in our oasis tropical paradise. Several years ago we did some paver work along our driveway and had a lot of leftover pavers we could have sent back. But for me I like a kid with big box of Leggo and built structures in my backyard for plants and decorations. But some of them are in the way of securing our windows and patio, so I am moving them to a different area. Just in case we need to scramble. My back is already starting to ache and I have a lot more to move...

For Tampa Bay that is what we do not want to see. I'm working in my backyard, so many "things" out there in our oasis tropical paradise. Several years ago we did some paver work along our driveway and had a lot of leftover pavers we could have sent back. But for me I like a kid with big box of Leggo and built structures in my backyard for plants and decorations. But some of them are in the way of securing our windows and patio, so I am moving them to a different area. Just in case we need to scramble. My back is already starting to ache and I have a lot more to move...

Significant shift east.

So one is shifting east, the other shifting west?? "Ensembles, not operationals"

It's funny how we see this happen so much over the last coupel years or so. But if it was heading into the Yucatan, we'd see the most beautiful crystal clears eyes. Or maybe if was less than 70 miles from western Louisiana.

Were you reading my mind or was I reading yours when we posted at the same time! LOL "Granted we were relieved when Irma went in south, but it was a hard few weeks after anyways even with the near miss. "

Either way I suspect Tampa Bay will mostly be surprised and shaken if one of these being in the cone of a big Hurricane ever actually hits us. Granted we were relieved when Irma went in south, but it was a hard few weeks after anyways even with the near miss.

Better a Major coming at you and weakening into a TS than a TS suddenly becoming a Major at landfall.

I'm starting to look at what I need to do outside. It is hot and muggy, but yea me too feels something. Hard to say impending doom, but definitely fuel for anything that happens. It's been quiet this year and we know there is energy we do not even understand that wants to pop. Many times we prepare and it is for nothing. Ian looks like a mess, even around here it is what everyone is talking about and most are dismissing it. Charlie took a lot of us by surprise even though we watched the hype for days. But it had been quite a while since a real storm. If Ian gets it together and becomes a Major off the coast from here likely closer than Hermine was that knocked out power and took down weak trees, some prep is worthwhile. If it inches closer and is a solid Hurricane, we'll experience worse than Irma that was over the middle of the state. We were out of power for over two weeks and had two big oaks down and thousands of dollars of tree service and debris removal in our yard alone. We didn't even have sustained 70 mph winds, but did have a few gusts in the 80's or so. Yet Storm Surge could be the biggest impact here if it moves slow.

Here in Pinellas County FL (Tampa Bay) it looks like today and early tomorrow is the time for outside preparations to avoid doing it in the rain. I'll start in our yard today as we have a lot of bird feeders, decorations, and other potential projectiles to secure. Plants in pots will be put where they should be protected from higher winds.

Stocked up on beer today. We still have water left over from Irma. Funny in all the power outages with so many storms, water was never as issue. Beer was. And ice was nowhere to be found. Neighbors with generators were fine until the gas ran out. Then they were looking for ice too. We are good on toilet as long as it stays dry...

Someone needs to go up there this year and install some web cams. I'm not seeing anything live.

NHC has been pretty good five days out the past years. Ian is still in flux, but Tampa Bay has not been in this deep in the forecast for quite a while.

9 has a name. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024746.shtml?cone#contents

SailFlow see 88 mph gust. https://www.sailflow.com/

21 minutes later it still looks like it, but hard to find a circulation. Would be good for everyone if it goes west and takes on shear in the open Gulf.

In a typical year we'd enjoy banter until warnings went up where it matters. Obviously the stress of a slow year has the very serious members Jonesing to do what they do and all of the rest of us who live in the path are put aside in a banter thread. If we get hit direct and give a moment to moment live feed we may still get pushed out if we are not a real Met. LOL

Here we go: City of Gulfport 2401 53rd Street South Gulfport, FL 33707 (727) 893-1000 www.mygulfport.us #2 For Immediate Release: Friday, September 23, 2022 THE CITY OF GULFPORT IS CURRENTLY MONITORING THE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 Sandbags will be available starting tomorrow at 10am.

This looks more like an Astrological chart than a Tropical System map.

Puts TB right in the middle. But I'm still trained from 2021 to expect it to nail western Louisiana.