Prospero

Guess we are looking at August. And maybe mid to late August?

On 7/13/2021 at 2:04 AM, Floydbuster said:

 

I try. I will say this year I think Florida may be smacked pretty hard. I tend to notice that seasons with abnormally cold springs here in Ohio result in disastrous major hurricane landfalls in Florida. 2004 and 2017 come to mind. 

It is just a matter of time. And most of us are getting complacent when it comes to prep.

Elsa coulda' been worse for sure, but who put up plywood on their windows? We also have canvas that has not been up since Irma.

Will say one piece of plywood on a long tall north facing bathroom window was damaged by a big tree branch with Irma and it saved the window. Whew.

6 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Don't post too many videos. They'll end up naming the Upper level low "Fred".

Well, winter storms get names now. Why not name cool upper level lows?

I wouldn't be surprised if heat waves will get names by the end of the year.

Might as well name thunderstorms...

I guess I already do sometimes with religious names, like "Jesus!", "Good God!!", and "Holy S**t!!"

22 hours ago, Windspeed said:

You joke but...
 

 

In all seriousness, a cool upper level low can allow for some pretty intense lapse rates and thunderstorms this time of year over the hot coffee thermos that is Florida.

 

That video is better than anything I remember from Elsa!

Hey, this looks like a 2021 Hurricane!!

1 hour ago, ncforecaster89 said:

I intercepted the NE eyewall (so to speak, if not technically accurate given it wasn’t a hurricane) at Horseshoe Beach, Fl.  The highest wind gust was recorded up to 71 mph, with the strongest winds surprisingly being in the SE quadrant of the storm...as the winds shifted to a direct onshore flow.  I chose to avoid the storm surge since I was driving my wife’s car and weren’t looking for a divorce.

Here’s a brief clip of what I observed during this particular event:

https://youtu.be/_oejAgsjAhM

Watching that power line dance is a good reminder that it doesn't take a tree or big tree branch to cut off power.

It was a couple hours after Elsa passed here that our strongest winds and heaviest rain happened. I was asleep and missed it, but saw the records and stats. Maybe I should have gone to bed early and then woke up after it passed...

Of course here on the coast onshore winds typically have bigger impacts than offshore winds even in a hurricane.

1 hour ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Agnes in 1972 and hurricane Donna in 1960 are the most recent to the very best of my knowledge.  

I'd say there must be many more, but have no data on hand.

I remember Agnes very well in St Petersburg, FL. But the floods up north (VA, PA, etc.) were while it was still on land. Don't even remember a second landfall even though a historic storm.

22 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

DId any U.S. station record sustained hurricane winds? Or even a gust? Highest I could find was 59mph

Here is one in the Tampa Bay area:

So either we'll get slammed, or wait twiddling our thumbs with nothing.

I wonder what will become??

I would prefer thumb twiddling while watching storms try to become something, kind of like Elsa. Yet that does get tiresome. Better than scanning the News channels for anything interesting though.

3 hours ago, LawdogGRNJ said:

Kind of surprised that there have been no posts about Elsa in 15+ hrs.

It may no longer be a hurricane, but it is still a strong weather event that is impacting millions of people in a negative way.

For sake of discussion, are the tornados being generated typical in volume and intensity?

Also, is there any thoughts as to why Elsa has remained so persistant?

I've been catching up on work that was kind of pushed aside as it approached us. Now we survived, had our "climax", smoked a cigarette and got back to daily life. Sad to say.

Elsa was fun and exciting, but anti-climatic for sure here in the center of the cone. But will take that over and over compared to having absolutely nothing or being totally destroyed.

First time I have have been back since early yesterday morning...

High tide is around 10:00 am on Clearwater Beach. Water is coming in on the beach, so there is some surge. Doesn't look too bad though.

https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html

Just woke up and checked out the backyard. A few small branches and twigs came down, but pretty mild all in all.

Anna Maria Island had a gust to 72 mph at 3:00 am.

2 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Radar has a juicy band setting up from Tampa metro to east of Sarasota, will be pivoting thru and dumping during the overnight.  High tide at 320AM with the coc close to due west offshore.  3-5ft surge seems on target, could be a tad higher.

Seems like Elsa is a little behind schedule and the onshore wind will be at high tide.

3-5 is about right based on the history around here. It doesn't take much, and there is wind.

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It collapsed when it finally became vertically stacked  

I love tropical.

Looked best at highest pressure, when a hurricane looked horrible. Been a weird one.

As far as here, the Fat Lady has not sung yet, but I'm looking forward to sleep in a couple hours or so with power...

27 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The radar presentation has really crapped out over the last hour.

Definitely looks better for us. The strongest winds are a couple hours away, but driving sideways rains are not an issue right now. We are good on rain lately, don't need a few inches.

Looks like drier air and clear skies for morning!

Rain has not been too bad here yet. That is nice so far, being outside feeling and listening to the wind is amazing. Not even strong yet but the distinctive sound, the palms swaying wildly, even the giant Live Oaks twisting and dancing due to some "invisible" force is incredible. Wind is one of the most impressive forces on Earth.

57 minutes ago, Double Action said:

Darn. I’m sure I’ll be next. BTW happy birthday. Iam new here but already feel like Iam home. Bridges are closed and police blocking travel to the beach strip as I tried to go. Still close to water and seeing some gusts. I too hope nobody gets hurt or any damage but these systems are exciting. 

Power back on, for now. Appears I was the first to report it for this outage with two blocks out. When I went to the Duke energy outage map, we were first of three areas. Lucky! The trucks were ready and fixed whatever happened, "wind related".

It was too early for us. "No way! It hasn't even started yet!!"

it's not too bad right now, I was outside almost the whole time...

Power is off!!

Hope I will be back...

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

Elsa definitely took a big jog to the NW just now on radar. Tampa definitely has some sort of deflector shield

I hope so. Maybe it is me that will help deflect it if it does, the most excited storm fanatic in Florida.

My profile name is "Prospero", the magician who created the Hurricane in the Tempest. But I assure you 100% I did not put any magic into making this a storm. I just watched it play out since day one.

I am putting a little magic into having Elsa skip us some pain and misery while being entertainment.

Has anybody else figured out that Elsa is somewhat based on Prospero? Elsa is the nickname of Elizabeth. John Dee who Prospero was based on was Elizabeth's astrologer and Dee is known to produce a storm that helped England win a battle with Spain. There is more too.

I know, CRAZY talk! LOL

I've been outside enjoying the stiff breeze. It feels so good, so many storms we feel that. It's an awesome experience, watching the clouds fly by with a warm tropical wind from a storm.

Yet, it is starting rain and might not stop for a bit. I do see a break in the radar a little while out and will go back out.

My yard should be secure as far as flying projectiles that can break windows (mine and my neighbors). All the weak trees are already gone by other storms. South, East, and North is open street and only risks are flying debris from other people's yards. My backyard on the West side is where our tropical oasis is with Palms, 2 old Live Oaks, a small pond, and all of our plants and "stuff." That is our risk factor. I have everything over 3ft put away, and we are protected quite a bit from the wind. But even just now when still standing in the backyard thinking that exact thought, a branch fell when the wind was not even strong. UGH

In for a ride, excited, scared, but on my birthday I could not have planned a more invigorating party. Hope no major cost to anyone and not even one life harmed.

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Happy birthday @Prospero! Wish you many more! 

I arrived in Clearwater a few hours ago. Best of luck tonight to everyone in the Tampa area. 

Welcome to Pinellas County, FL! Enjoy your stay! The best to place to be (or NOT to be) for Elsa.

If the power is on tomorrow, we have great food and fun down here!

Come visit Gulfport, not too far and BayNews9 is already here because our cool little town floods in every storm. Not a good thing, but we are kind if used to it. 

3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Radar loop makes it look like it's heading directly for a Tampa Bay landfall. 

Looks like a direct hit or just offshore.

I heard BayNews9 in the background and they appeared to downplay it. Hope they are right.

But no matter what, will be one to remember for sure.

2020 - Ends with Eta in Tampa Bay.

2021 - Begins with Elsa in Tampa Bay.

What other populated area ended a year and began one with the same letter?

"E" is one for Tampa Bay.

Today is my birthday, 61 years old. I've been in hurricanes, blizzards, ice storms, hail storms, dust storms, everything but a tornado (even though close).

I've loved storms since my first taste of a hurricane in 1967 (I think) in Charleston SC. Always wanted to grow up and be a met, but started being an IT/computer guy in '78 soon as I left high school.

Tonight might be my most intense night ever, yet have thought that many times and storms do fizzle out. Hopefully Elsa fizzles out and we'll still have some fun.

12 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

Sad thing is, nobody here is taking this any seriously at all because it isn’t raining at the moment. Gonna be some surprised people later tonight when they lose power 

I'm the "Chicken Little" in my circle of family and friends, but tonight the "Sky might be falling!"

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

If you don’t mind it would be nice if you could video or maybe take pictures of the storm while the storm really gets going and then post them here, it’s always interesting to see.

Few of us here in Tampa Bay who post. Count on live video, reports, and photos.

Wish us luck, and we'll wish to give good reports.

Hate to even say it right now, but in Elsa's words, "Let the storm rage on!"