NorthHillsWx

I’m just happy to be here. I’ll report back my 1/2” on mulch tomorrow

He must be hugging the NAM

The “major” argument may have F’d the rest of the board but when it was created, I was looking at 0” of snow and now almost all models show 3-6” here. Probably sacrificed everyone for Raleigh to jackpot, but that’s a sacrifice I can live with

The UK doubled precip for the triangle

Hey now, we’re the only forum in the game still. NYC, PHILLY, and MA all fell hard but our major winter storm thread has survived!

I’m cautiously optimistic for Raleigh with the 850 trending south and models consistently showing the fronto band overhead. Not too worried about model QPF unless that moves. Think this could be an over achiever

GFS looks fantastic here

Yes. A thunderstorm complex that may or may not exist can completely alter what a CAM sees

It looks like convection along the gulf coast of Louisiana is what likely caused the changes you see in the NAM. This is one reason CAMs are not always useful in predicting precip amounts. Storm looked similar overall on 3k and 12k is on crack but it did go to rehab finally

HI RES NAM suffered some convective feedback or initialization issue. Look across the entire footprint of the storm into the Ohio valley, it uniformly cut precip everywhere. That’s not likely correct

Yes. They may have inched their 2-4 line south a hair

I don’t think it’s handling the precip shield with the coastal correctly but the fronto band is showing up nicely and that bonus stuff Thursday looks great. If mid levels are good (I can’t believe we’re still talking about them with this track) this should be a pretty big snow for central/eastern NC, including the triangle

The op never came north of southern Wake. My analysis: it’s going to be extremely close and probably waffles over the city a few times. Northern wake is probably all snow, unless the NAM is correct

GEFS increased for central NC. Not much change in western areas

We’ll probably add a nowcast/obs thread at some point this evening for tomorrow’s storm. That always gets me excited

@Brick Tamland I think you are sitting pretty for a 3-5” storm. That northern wake area east might be the jack. It’s hard to find any *decent* model besides the euro that doesn’t support that

You didn’t just watch the noon news on WRAL and it shows

The mix line is going to absolutely break hearts tomorrow especially if areas just north of it get enough moisture for a big snow. I could be tempted to up the triangle forecast to 2-4” (or even 3-5”) after seeing 12z guidance roll in if I was RAH but they have that mix in their back pocket to keep most of the area in the 1-3” range. If trends continue though I could see Wake upgraded simply bc all of those solutions, even the sleet, are highly impactful if the higher QPF is realized. And northern wake would probably hit warning criteria unless the 12z NAM warm nose isn’t on crack. I don’t think they have to blink until tomorrow morning though unless afternoon models keep increasing. It’s funny, the more QPF we get the trickier the forecast becomes bc the difference of totals in the mix vs non mix areas goes from like Tr-1/2” to 3” on one side or the other to 1/2-1” to 6-8”. The upper margin increases disproportionately

The idea that tomorrow’s storm happens and then we jump to spring is absolutely false. Being stuck in phase 8 and the AO looks to tank again in early March. It’s far out but NAO goes to at least neutral at same time (and appears to be tanking). To me after some up and down weather to end February we will likely start March off cold with at least the chance of wintry weather. We lose the pacific though which has been nice through most of this winter.

It’s interesting to see the consistency of models setting up the fronto band over wake.

Nm, slight shift, mainly just noise

Pretty sizable shift NW with precip too

Since *potential* double digits on the coast are extremely cool I get the chase but if this trended better for us, would you stay put?

GFS largely unchanged at any level. Nice run for central NC namely the triangle N and East

If 12z short range models are to be believed pretty much unanimous support to increase precip across the state with RDU looking at 4-6”. That’s not a forecast, that’s what the models show. I’m literally punting the 12k NAM like a football. There is nothing else remotely close to a super amped MA NE coastal. I wouldn’t go crazy adjusting totals or expectations, these models have been up and down. But that’s a good start and they may be getting a read on the system as it is getting underway now. Like I said, heed caution, one run does not a storm make but could be the start of a trend