NorthHillsWx

This one’s been a roller coaster. If we hit the boom it would be absolutely sweet

@eyewall @StantonParkHoya @Brick Tamland Its snowing (flurries) at my house… How are you all feeling about it here given what models/radar look like

ILM Radar is a good one to watch to see the precip blossoming that becomes Raleigh’s snow. Looks really good to me

Being it just started snowing here I don’t think we’re going to make it any warmer. Only 30 right now. I had been concerned we’d slip above freezing but that seems unlikely with snow building in on radar

Yes. And N GA was completely dry on those models and that is not the case. Any extra moisture we can buy helps. Like the banding showing up over wake on some of the CAMS. Could be some good rates north of the mix line. Officially flurrying here!

Lots of mping reports showing flurries in wake county. That’s a good sign with extremely light returns that we won’t waste much valuable QPF on Virga. Almost triple the dewpoint from where we started with the late January system too. Precip looks to be blossoming on schedule in the southern piedmont. Look for how west that sets up as to how far west the best banding I’ll get. Chapel hill/Durham obviously need it as west as it can get and any extra westward expansion helps Raleigh Great sign seeing the snow in foothills. A lot of models kept them completely dry through the morning

I think the difference is the boost of precip from the gulf moisture. That extra .10 if realized could go a long way. Radar trends are positive imo. Lots more returns and precip than some of the dryer solutions west of us. I think if we just get the coastal we’re good for 1-3” but any additional precip can jack those totals up

Watch the area of precip blossom south of Raleigh. Those showers are from the back of of the coastal starting to form. That will become the fronto band AKA Raleigh’s storm

A lot of CAMs have it dry in Atlanta. It is far from that. As a nowcast that is something to watch for western piedmont For triangle-east it feels like we’re finally seeing consistency but it will be interesting to see if totals can be added to a little if the gulf moisture is slightly underdone. I’m monitoring radar trends in N GA, cams seem to have underdone precip there significantly this morning. GFS had a better handle on that and that’s not wishcasting. Currently 30.0/17.1

This looks nothing like the radar in N GA right now

GFS largely held serve

@jburns can you pin this thread please. I think the banter in the other one is going to keep some of the good posters away as we move into game time.

Definitely me right now

I’ve abandoned the other thread. The western folks are burning it to the ground. Triangle-east still looks good to me. Not deciphering every hour of obscure models. HRRR looks nice. NAM is fine. West areas lost WAA snow but coastal hasn’t changed much at all. I’m not sure that WAA snow doesn’t show back up on models tonight.

Maybe, but we’ll see what radar looks like tomorrow.

Greg Fischel just put a video up and said 2-3” all snow in Raleigh, 3-5 maybe 6 towards rocky mount, 8-10 for Elizabeth city. Expects sleet line to stay south of wake county

HRRR with a noticeable uptick for most, though the separation between the coastal and upper level stuff was longer. Coastal juices a little more. Take what you want from the HRRR Anyone know how the storm is doing west of here? Seen a couple reports pop in but not much

It’s currently 40.0 with a DP of 27.9. High was 51.3. Don’t think soil temps will be an issue but with a slightly delayed start time we may get above freezing before wet bulbing. Praying we get enough precip for this to matter

Let’s trim the banter and start to nowcast. Good luck everyone, I started this thing so I’m bringing it home

It may not be the monster the models thought it would be a couple days ago but it’s snow in the south so let’s get it! Good luck to all and hopefully someone gets buried!

Might be time for the obs thread to refocus

You will have 0.5” of sleet and you will like it!

We’ve reached the point with coastal storms that we can toss models logic and science and just use a man made highway and be correct more than 75% of the time

RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore

Last thing I’ll say about the major storm forum, if by your logic it cost us the storm, I’ll gladly sacrifice the 1.50” of ZR it was showing in RDU to watch DC and NYC lose 25” of snow and the subsequent board meltdowns. From the movie Moana “you’re welcome”