NorthHillsWx

Cold seems to be backing off for tonight’s system in CAD areas. See WWA hoisted for a lot of mountain/foothills areas but icing looks extremely limited now

High of 52 after a morning low of 34. Was quite raw this afternoon, picked up .24” of rain and temps dropped to mid 40s

I guess it’s just a spot without any pavement and a lot of farmland. Just happens to have a weather station there. Mine is actually on top of a hill so I’m sure there are colder spots on the farm too. Last year with snow cover it was exceptionally cold compared to RDU

It’s just north of Louisburg airport and typically the coldest spot in the county. Usually drops 3-4 degrees on the car thermometer between getting off the pavement on 401 and when you pull in driveway. Louisburg airport was actually 19 this morning too. My weather station is less than 1/2 mile from their sensor

22.4 was the low at my house, farm was 19.3 which matches the airport next to it.

Euro with a big storm around December 9 and looks to be setting up for another at end of run

Also of note, current DP is down to 14!

Shewww it’s cold. 23.7 still some time to fall. Farm is sitting at 19.4 this is real cold for November

From a snow accumulation perspective last winter left much to be desired for a lot west of US1 but we had 3 WSW and 3 events that stayed below freezing throughout the event IMBY. Growing up here that didn’t happen all the time. I’ve lived here long enough to know that doesn’t happen every year. Think we can all agree we are missing that big coastal storm, and 2018 was the last time we got one. That being said central and eastern NC would take last years winter almost any year. Foothills folks are in purgatory

I think we were BN December through February with temps and central N.C. saw snow all three months. In these parts it doesn’t get much more wall to wall than that

I’d forgotten about this. Last year was a wall to wall winter for the state

Laying the ground for deep snowpack north of us as we enter prime climo. I’m not mad

Lakes areas looking at their best start to winter in a long time. Models yo yoing on extent of SER going into December but a lot of systems over the next few weeks with an active STJ. Will help the drought areas, 90% of NC is in some level of drought now

Hopium is strong in here, and I’m here for it! If anything December looks to feature some cold in the east and the southern stream looks to become active. Volatile seems like a good word

in Fab Febs defense, it actually produced our (my) biggest storm since 2018 last year

Cards are stacked against us. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no

That being said, last winter was BN and snowfall was AN to NN from central NC to the coast. Weeklies weren’t bad last winter at all

0.16” this morning brings the MTD total to 1.92”

One thing that western jog right before landfall seems to have done is to have drug the eyewall and RMW over a larger area of coastline because though the eye itself remained just offshore longer, the eyewall was already onshore. For a system with a tight inner core like Melissa had, there is a much larger area of extreme-unprecedented wind damage than would otherwise be expected given the small RMW at the time of landfall

Good news is the pacific doesn’t look as F’d as it did a few days ago. PNA Pretty much stays neutral now. That’s always the first place I look. As for the SER, as long as we don’t get that big western trough it can be beat back. A La Niña paired with a negative PNA is a death sentence for the southeast winter lovers

What’s even wilder is there are some places in eastern N.C. that still haven’t hit freezing, and Florida got this cold

This was only the second time below freezing this year. First was for 6 hours (low of 30) and this was for 4 hours (29.8)

We way undercut guidance this morning. Currently sitting at 29.8, the coldest reading of the year here

What I take away from that map is more of an east coast problem than just somewhere in the Carolina’s and it all stems back from the insane lack of coastal storms that have worked. To me, this is where climate shifts have caught up with snowfall. Our biggest snows have always been and will always be from coastal lows. Recently, every coastal system has either missed, or the BL has been too warm for snows. These are always borderline systems where the heaviest snows fall in 31-33 degree temps so a swing of 1-2 degrees will absolutely destroy what otherwise was a perfect track system. You’ve seen this up and down the coast and unfortunately this might be more common in the future. The snows we have gotten including the two all snow events last year were in deep cold air masses with coastal lows either too weak or too far offshore to produce enough QPF for heavier amounts. I know eastern N.C. got lucky and it can still happen, but it just seems like it takes more than it used to to get coastal lows to produce snowfall in the piedmont and up the east coast. I remember the I-85 snow line when that was a thing and the rain snow line wasn’t somewhere in Virginia. We used to have 1-2 of these a year at least where Raleigh would have some kind of mix to rain and places west of here got plastered. Recently it’s been all rain or just a brief roxboro mix to rain. That’s what I see the most out of that map and it gives me a lot of concern for the future as our main form of bigger snowfall seems to be taken away by background warming

This is great research as always. Gives credence to the theory, at least we aren’t burning good snowfall climo with a crap pattern. Will hurt the ski resorts and delay onset of winter, but if it was December 16 and the indices were trending the way they are we’d be in trouble