NorthHillsWx

@olafminesaw brings up a good point- this storm likely features the WAA “thump”. This is where heroes are made in the mix areas as that front end over performing or switching to mix too fast can make or break a storm. That is 100% something to watch for most areas. 2018 featured one of the heaviest front end thumps I can remember in Raleigh. We got 7-8” in like 6 hours before it switched to rain. In this case there will not be a switch to plain rain, but the thump might be just as important for storm total snowfall.

^^^^^ THIS

This has a lot of similarities to that storm. From a footprint perspective I really think this ends up similarly. Surface is much much colder this time and QPF might be higher. But overall that is an analog to what is developing this weekend

In this case, given the impressive blocking, there is a limit to how far north the system gets. However, mid levels are a different story with strong WAA driven by how strong the low becomes. That’s why you’re seeing surface temps remaining steady or even falling while mid levels keep ticking warmer. As long as the HP is close to what is modeled, plain rain will be an afterthought for most on the board. This is an anomalous cold setup at the surface and the battle looks to be in The mid levels

If anyone in the south gets 2” of frozen/freezing QPF those words are justifiable

It must’ve been that. I thought it was more than that but it was a fun long duration storm.

There was a storm in Raleigh in the 2000’s (can’t remember exactly when) but we had several inches of sleet. We were supposed to go on a family trip and I remember driving to RDU and watching the temp tick down to the mid 20s on the drive only to get there and find the flight was cancelled and drive home in it. Think we mixed with ZR but it was a long duration storm at least a couple days and stayed cold despite it being sleet instead of snow. Some of the best road sledding I remember

These are the trends we want

I was there. I lived in Alexandria at the time. There were 4’ “drifts” by sloped roofs where it had bounced off and accumulated below. That was a glacier until March. Also- that storm was progged to be ZR and it ended up 99% sleet. Very very fond memories of that event up there, gave me a deep appreciation for a heavy sleet storm

Agreed. This is the rare event where, with 2+” of QPF possible some areas could mix for over half the storm and still end up with a foot of frozen. This isn’t wasting half our 0.30” in mix like we’ve become accustomed to…

I hope people realize how rare/epic 4-6” of sleet would be

It is hard to take those ZR maps seriously. I haven’t checked euro soundings but most of that ZR area is solidly IP and really not even close on GFS. There is an opportunity here given high QPF for areas to get greater than 6” of snow and 2-4” of IP which would be insane for longevity of the snowpack

Over a foot of snow with over 1/2” of freezing rain over a giant area would redefine the word “crippling” for years to come

The @BornAgain13 special

FYI AIGFS trended somewhat significantly colder, again. It’s like it missed the bus on the blocking/CAD and is running to catch up.

I think there’s a legit shot of sub-zero readings over many locations in piedmont areas early next week. It takes a special combination of HP, extreme Arctic cold, and deep snow/ice pack in your backyard and to your north for it to happen and all those boxes appear to be checked. I’m not buying the -10 on gfs but within a few ticks of 0 seems possible

Even though the GFS ticked north with precip and mixing, it actually ticked colder just about everywhere at the surface. There is going to be an epic battle going on in the mid levels with this one. It actually ticked colder at 850 in Virginia

06z GFS moved north a bit and increased precip totals. Also inched mix line north again.

Yep, 1” QPF frozen whether it be IP or SN is a crippling winter storm. Could be a foot of snow or 4” of IP it will shut down travel the same. That’s why SPC uses frozen/freezing QPF in their outlook maps for winter storms

Surface temps in the teens at the height of the event here lol

This is the rare setup where someone could get 6+” of sleet. Models showing surface maps in the low 20’s with 850s torching and 925 around freezing over a large area. Once again a lot will change but someone could get a legendary sleet bomb based off what I’ve seen. Chance for a new ice age next week with southern glaciers if this pans out

Falling in line with other guidance. Major mix storm for NC and major snow in Virginia

The clock just turned to Tuesday. This storm doesn’t really start for most until Saturday. There are 10 million things that can and will change. I feel like we’re a couple days out but we still have most of a week lol

Yes, you’re in a great spot. I am more posting for the Carolina’s posters, this to me has Virginia written all over it for the bullseye

UK is ugly, mix well into Virginia and major ice in NC. Similar to CMC