NorthHillsWx

My concern with the 8-10th period has been and will continue to be the lack of solutions showing storms. The means regressed significantly last night and even those had been driven by a couple members with a big storm vs a lot of members showing something or something close. It just hasn’t gathered much modeling support and in the 10-day timeframe you’d really want to at least start seeing ensemble support for a valid threat

I think that Jan 8-11 period is cooked. We cannot lose the mid-late month cold. We are punting prime climo now

Euro caved to GFS- east coast trough replaced with a ridge and blocking evaporates. Ugly ugly ugly

Horrific trends overnight on models and ensembles. Blocking lost and thoughts of west coast ridging replaced with west coast trough. Going to be an interesting day to see where we go from here or if this was more than a blip

We had just done a thinning at our family tree farm in Vance county and that ice storm wiped out most of the pines. Was devastating for the tree rotation ended up having to do a salvage cut and start over, 20 years in the hole

AI GFS with a big winter storm on the 10-11th

What a crazy torch! That Charlotte graphic above is mind boggling

Been a brutal shut the blinds stretch but signs of hope at least. If the expected +PNA -NAO actually sets up I’d expect to start seeing fantasy storms soon

Surprised it’s not more active in here. Good overnight trends for January.

An identical 72.8 as yesterday. At least it’s fun to get the kids outside playing with their presents. Picked up 0.12” in the morning

There are torches and then there’s what occurred today. Topped out at 72.8 but seeing the national maps makes you pause

Merry torchmas everyone! 70.3 how high do we go???

Ahh. The sweet smell of hopium has returned to the forum. Nature is healing

Thats one of the more impressive ZR maps I’ve seen

Anyone have access to IP/ZR accumulation maps for the fantasy storm on gfs, just for fun?

Nice looking at fantasy sleet storms past hour 300 than the endless fantasy torches we’ve seen over the last week

Enough snow to shovel my driveway

It was nice last year where everything just kept trending colder until verification

The biggest impact of the - PNA if we actually keep blocking will be lack of STJ energy. We’ll be relying on something coming from the NW to dig and slow bc there won’t be enhancement or energy from the southern stream or a phase. That’s just the world we are in with the pacific this season. It can work for snow but the odds of a big coastal are muted without southern stream energy

At least the torch and SER are muted with the -NAO but these systems flying in from the NW aren’t what anyone’s looking for

The December 28 system has trended from the Canadian maritimes to the mid Atlantic due to blocking on the GFS over the last 4 runs. Definitely some volatility with unresolved strength of blocking over eastern Canada

RDU now has Columbia’s climate. RDUs climate has shifted to DC. Do that across the country

But… was it measurable if it was a trace?

Uphill battle every year for snow in the south with cards stacked against us from climo but this looks like a total disaster heading into January. This isn’t the reset we were thinking a week ago, this looks like our worst fears realized and a switch to full on Nina winter. With the cold leaving Canada we’re talking weeks of step down to get cold enough to talk winter weather at a minimum. And that’s assuming something flips. I’m typically not a mid season cliff diver but I haven’t seen anything trending right over the last week. Add in STJ is dead and will remain that way unless pacific relaxes which is a pipe dream at this point. Need some hope at some point before the calendar flips to 2026

MJO moving into phase 2, PNA tanking, NAO going from negative to neutral. Too soon to call the month shot but January is looking extremely bleak. We’re losing the cold in Canada and likely will be looking at a total reset needed on this side of the globe. In other words, this is trending towards a disaster as we head into prime climo. Looks like a pure Nina pattern developing with continental air. My god any optimism has faded at rapid rates this year