Yep that is my concern. It is why I posted. It’s damned close to triangle areas and would be an absolute kick in the nads to get 1” with 8”+ on either side
Gotta say, that coastal plain dry slot is concerning. One of these analog storms, cannot remember which, did that bad over central NC. Starting to see it on most modeling. Could really screw someone in this setup as the coastal takes over
CAMs typically will sniff them out. If globals are painting a broad 10”+ area you’d have to believe some of that would in actuality be in a singular band with higher totals. Usually how these work
My thoughts- I think a large area of 4-8” is LIKELY. There will be swath of 8-12” and likely up to 16” max amounts wherever the deform band sets up shop. I think most of NC is looking at north of 3” and with ULL enhancement this is likely to be widespread. Max amounts will depend on coastal track
Eastern, especially NE NC is way underrated with regards to snowstorm performance. Perfect location when these cold coastals get cranking if they can avoid the warm nose. Elizabeth city has seen some of the biggest storms in the state. Recently they’ve done better than most on the board
UK is possible. It keeps the southern energy its own entity longer and phases late. That balancing act between the low spawned SE of the NS lobe and that southern stream energy is going to be critical and give insanely different results. But UK has same overall setup
It’s Wednesday. This starts early Saturday morning. I’m not sure I can take the anxiety that comes with potential like this. The wait is literally going to feel like a decade