NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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GFS with a rather large jump back east. Euro remains about where it’s been. One models staying steady and the other is jumping around 100 miles each run.
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Model Roundup before the king’s turn: GFS: boom run, huge trends west and more precip. Eastern areas at risk of missing out UK: too far east but pretty nice looking storm CMC: finally has the storm, but too warm pretty much anywhere south of VA RGEM: has storm, too warm SE of 85 ICON: has storm but just too far east. Much improved from previous runs
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UK staying south makes me think Euro isn’t moving much tonight. GFS and more importantly GEFS trends are undeniable
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Concerning issues: 1) sharp cutoff of overrunning precip to east (someone would get burned). This happens a lot with overrunning precip. Then there’s usually a dry slot before surface low takes over 2) models being too aggressive with cold push and trend to slower Arctic front/cold chasing precip/wasted qpf 3) Is the NW trend going to stop? Still 3.5 days out would not be the first time show maps went from Wilmington to Knoxville especially in a Nina base state without blocking
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And far too warm south of 85
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We gotta be careful here- this could jackpot DC if this keeps up lol
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Agreed- we’ve gone from NW edge to SE edge. Euro being east still I think we’re in a good spot for now. Unlike the foothills and triad we aren’t asking for a NW trend but it to stay the same. Definitely concerned
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That 5-7” bullseye falls in about 6 hours too. My god that would be fun
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Need a cigarette after that run
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Hour 96 is an absolute crush job for Raleigh. Clown maps incoming. Helluva a run
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GFS gonna be west and warmer I believe
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0z RGEM is very warm east and south of 85
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To me, everything seems to be honing in on central and eastern parts of the Carolina’s
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And it works 90% of the time!
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What I would do for a .75-1” QPF bomb one of these days like we used to get even if some was wasted on mix or low ratios. All these NS systems you’re fighting for two tenths of an inch of QPF for victory, though ratios typically are better
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That storm but it lasting 2-3 more hours would make me happy for the rest of the season
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The first rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM. The second rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM
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I think we can wait until tomorrow to start a storm thread. Until last night there really wasn’t much consensus on there even being a storm would like it to remain on models for a full day before jumping into a thread personally. There isn’t really anything else going on besides in the mountain forum so nothing would be confused with this discussion at this time
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Central/East NC and SC are in a really good spot at this juncture
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UK was terrible. EURO was not great but it was mostly due to the energy being less consolidated than a bad trend with regards to placement, etc. think as someone else stated we’ve reached the stage of models jumping around. We’re still 4 days out our storms are never nailed down at this range. Watch those two closely we don’t want to separate into GFS vs the world
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Alright west trend was great everyone gets a storm but it can kindly stop now that we’re in the bullseye lol
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It’s the extreme range NAM but it was very similar to the 6z Euro. Looked like it was about to go boom if it went out 6 more hours.
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If Raleigh gets a 6” storm this year I promise we’ll send everything else your way the rest of the the season
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This checks out. Our local Mets in Triangle downplay every storm until it starts snowing (smart) but even they talk about snow droughts and the long one we ended last year as being far from the norm. Acting like Charlotte and Asheville are Columbia South Carolina doesn’t make it correct from a climo standpoint
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6z Euro ticked up significantly but Is still a coastal hit, mostly. I think we can call this a trend without a doubt at this point
