NorthHillsWx

Intensity guidance keeps ticking up. Watch this be our 4th straight major hurricane on the season

Put up or shut up time for the gulf

Feel VERY confident this has trended to just a rip current/beach erosion threat. Bermuda still needs to watch

What a beast. What a week. Atlantic showing off finally

Man we have missed out on everything. Just 0.09” so far

Also Bermuda is in play

These homebrew systems developing under ridges with weak steering flows are typically a pain in the ass to forecast in the southeast

Humberto being stronger and further west is why the models are showing more interaction/Imelda being pulled east. This is not set in stone hopefully no one lets their guard down but obviously this drastically reduces impacts if the offshore stall occurs. Huge difference in 100 miles at this range

If this “busts” I hope the public understands how tough a forecast this is and the difference between a major impact vs a non event is literally anyone’s guess right now. Good for South Carolina being proactive

I wish we had recon in there. This has the look of a high end cat 4 already

Per the current forecast Humberto would be near if not over Gabrielle’s number. Another high ACE producer incoming

The high end rain potential here is very scary in the Carolina’s especially with what happened last year. That needs to be the messaging right now no one needs to focus on intensity yet

CMC stalls it, heads east as it interacts with Humberto, then gets left behind and landfalls into NC as an strong intensifying hurricane

I’m very worried. This has high end flood potential written all over it even if it stalls just off the coast

Very intense wind event across the Azores today. Horta gusted well over hurricane force and areas in the mountains saw gusts exceeding 100 knots. Here’s video from Horta this morning https://x.com/infometeotuit/status/1971536347845554336?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

Humberto going nuclear. This might be a cat 5 candidate

A location on the Azores is currently gusting to 100 kts

The only good news should this storm stall over the Carolina’s is the very dry antecedent conditions. This has been one of the driest periods in NC since I was born. We have just 0.16” for the month and going back to mid August we have had well under 1/2” for the entire period. That being said tropical rains can and will cause flooding no matter the antecedent conditions but that certainly helps as almost all rivers and watersheds are low There is a favorable environment for strengthening through the Bahamas and the way the MLC presents itself this morning I believe the storm will likely take advantage of that. How well formed it gets there will likely be key to future intensity because it appears there will be southwesterly shear at some point in approach and likely some dry air intrusion but a mature strong cyclone can be more tolerant of that. If it slows down north of the NC/SC border and sits over the shelf water from Wilmington to hatteras it will likely weaken because shelf temps are unseasonably cool, in the 70s. It goes without saying intensity will be tricky but a stronger storm over the Bahamas and quicker speed into landfall would likely lead to a stronger storm on the coast. Anything that takes its time organizing or moves slowly into coast likely stays relatively weak. ATM since this is only a few days away I would think a cat 1 hurricane is most likely with a cat 2 being the ceiling if it landfalls. This is not a region that favors cat 3 landfalls and it takes almost a perfect setup to get one. Add in all of the cat 3+ storms ti affect the Carolina’s were mature hurricanes that had been strong for quite awhile before approaching. This system is basically home brew (I know it’s from an African wave but it will not develop until the Bahamas). In other words, there is not a climo precedent for a major hurricane landfall in the Carolina’s from a setup like this with a storm forming this close. As others have said, rainfall potential is rather high here, again. Given dry conditions as of present it might temper some impacts but 12”+ amounts would be likely if many model solutions verify and that’s… not good

Humberto looks poised for takeoff

One other note that I’ve seen on recent modeling suggests a more favorable pattern for strengthening with a divergent flow aloft and less dry air. Actually somewhat concerned this could be a strong hurricane now. So much has changed over last couple days

Really thinking the odds of this affecting the SE coast are increasing. A weaker Humberto/further separation increases risk further. If Humberto wasn’t there this is going into coast. Still a lot on the table and until a center forms there isn’t a clear solution but the trend on ensembles is clear and we’re seeing ops follow suite. Everyone from northern Florida to the OBX needs to be alert

Still stuck at 0.16” for the month

6z GFS slams the storm into the Carolina’s as a hurricane

High of 93.7 yesterday. Honestly I thought we were done with this

If you’re on the coast from Florida to NC I would be following this closely and make sure you have the ability to prepare if needed. This forecast is as uncertain as it gets relating to a tropical cyclone