NorthHillsWx

Anyone know how the overnight models runs went?

Some of the trends on the EURO are the most stunning reversals I have ever seen. Parts of north Georgia have gone from the mid 20s to the mid 60s in 4 runs. It’s the king, but that is hard to take in. I am very skeptical the wedge just evaporates.

We have now crossed the line where the storm mode has changed. We won because energy was sliding under a 1040 mb high. This is now a super amped coastal. Even the big cities north of us are at risk of mix now if this is the case, like any nor Easter, BAM was right… That being said, be wary of the wedge eroding this fast, that’s a 1040, not a 1026 sitting in prime CAD position. EURO notoriously scours the wedge too quick. While hope for a snowstorm is fading and probably the least likely outcome for anyone on the board, I don’t see a way around a 2002-like ice event somewhere in the Carolina’s. Do not let your guard down, this can be a memorable storm, but for ALL the wrong reasons. What a freaking nightmare of a hobby

Frigid at BL. Not much change upstairs. QPF bomb

Didn’t ATL get a 4-6” storm like… last year?

Everyone says they’re going to bed but I know damned well this crew is staying up for the 0z suite

Fixed it for you

Thoughts and prayers SE folk

It would be pretty funny after all the hype if this ends up just being cold rain with a little mix

Bourbon is broken out only for victory. Tonight we open the vodka

Good news is 2-3” of rain will be great for the drought! Especially after it melts off all the fallen trees

When the GFS prints out 35” of snow and then the euro shows next to nothing for same spot in NC 3 days out it tends to do that to people

For those just stopping by I can save you pages of reading: The cliff diving page being hot is all you need to know about “happy hour”

I’m legitimately worried the battleground sets up in Virginia and we’re fighting for 32 degrees so the lights stay on

With that storm track I’d be shocked if it didn’t go to regular old cold rain Raleigh-east

Yep. I’m gonna lay off for the night and see if anything trends back in our favor by morning. Feels like we lost it today, only model holdout is the GFS. Can buy a phase for 7 years then get one that costs us everything. We’ve seen trends reverse but problem here is the north trend has accelerated

It’s gonna get ugly in here. The excitement started way too early. It’s still over 3 days out

Euro brings the mix line almost to DC. Discount it if you want but this storm has mega bust potential if these trends continue. Like that doesn’t even snow until the border. I’m shocked it jumped that far north and would hope it’s done but my goodness that’s two huge north jumps in a row for the king

The holdouts staring at 10:1 maps including ZR will keep the hope alive, but this is and has always been Virginias storm.

Yea Euro is almost 100% an ice event

Euro is ugly. At 18z every piece of guidance trended north. Every model.

GFS AI was way north

Need the north trends to stop but it’s Tuesday. We gotta remember this is still way too far out there for conclusions

I have to keep reminding myself that the gfs is a terrible model but…

Yea but I only got 20” places just northwest of me got over a foot more! We just can’t win, sigh