NorthHillsWx

The eastern lemon has excellent model support for development but will be another recurve

Cat 2, 966 mb at 11 am

Pressure dropped 3 mbs between passes, now down to 967

https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1973385028051636664?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

The southern side is much stronger right now and would be in line with the forward motion but models keep building a strong sting jet over the NW quad at some point near or over the island partly due to interaction with Humberto. Not a totally tropical evolution but one to watch to boost winds at a bad time for Bermuda. Imelda is trying to look pretty at the moment. Don’t think it holds this classic eye look for long though but it is definitely strengthening right now

Pressure falls continuing (looks possibly like sub 970) and winds starting to catch up. FL winds to 100kts this last pass and SFMR winds coming up at well. Bermuda is in for a serious blow. HWRF brings this to a major right over the island. I think cat 2 is most likely but the ceiling remains low end cat 3

I disagree, models have hinted for days it will strengthen somewhat due to the interaction with Humberto and peak near Bermuda. It looks as healthy as it has its entire life this morning. Not saying it’s likely but this storm has not peaked yet and the window for cat 3 is still open

Up to 90mph at latest advisory

Imelda has become significantly better defined overnight with a large eye and more cohesive convection. Strengthens appears imminent.

Up to 75 knots. Visible reveals a possible eye feature forming

Imelda is winning the fight

I guess I posted about 15 minutes too early

With the storm now moving in a more favorable direction considering the shear vector we are starting to see signs of strengthening this morning. Convection is firing over the center and starting to wrap into the dry slot the storm ingested last night. Despite the dry air, pressure falls have continued and we are now seeing convection become more organized as well. This system is well on its way to hurricane intensity

2025 ACE is now within about 10 of average. With the two ongoing storms, albeit with Humberto likely to become non tropical today, we will be within single digits of average. I cannot stress enough how impressive this is given how far behind we were just a couple weeks ago

60 kts at 5 am but dry air has really slowed intensification. Models are pretty aggressive over the next 48 hours and some peak this near major. It likely won’t be a “pretty” storm but Bermuda looks to be in the bullseye of a strong hurricane. I really wouldn’t be shocked if this makes a run at cat 3 near the island. A lot of upper level dynamics at play including a very strong sting jet progged across guidance as the storm approaches the island. Very interested to watch the evolution

Woke up to good steady rain. Hopefully this continues for a bit. Much much needed EDIT: 0.70” looks to be the event total. MTD is now 0.95” really could’ve used some more from this system

0.53” for the event so far, 0.78” MTD

55 kts at 5 pm

Was not expecting it to look so symmetrical today. Very impressive loop and very clear it is getting its act together quickly

Last thing I’ll say right now- track guidance is now tightly clustered on a solution that gives Bermuda direct impacts if not a rare landfall. This is not a “fish” storm and may actually be chaseable in Bermuda

Wow, Melbourne radar shows a very well defined system with a partial eyewall. Continued strengthening is expected based on that look

Up to 60 mph at 11 am and now forecast to reach cat 2

Honestly this storm had organized at a quick pace overnight with pressure falls and a the center under the CDO. Think pace of intensification quickens through the day

Finally getting good rainfall at my house. It’s been so long the grass clippings from when I last mowed 3 weeks ago are still visible

With Humberto remaining a major for another day at least and Imelda potentially strengthening into a formidable hurricane the Atlantic has a real shot to be near normal ACE as we head into October. This seemed impossible a couple weeks ago but two long track cat 4+ storms will do that. With a current ACE of around 80 and likely a boost of around 15 more from the current storms we would be very close to seasonal averages. It would take continued cyclone activity to catch all the way up but still, this is like the the US in the Ryder cup over the weekend