NorthHillsWx

We’re 3 days out so my initial forecast calls: Triangle- <1” SN, 2-3” IP, 25-.30” ZR Triad- 1” SN, 3-4” IP, .10-.25 ZR Foothills- 1-3” SN, 4-5” IP, TR-0.10” ZR Charlotte- TR-1/2” SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.30” ZR Upstate- TR SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.40” ZR ATL- TR-1/2” IP, 0.25-0.40” ZR (cold rain to finish) NC coastal plain- TR-1/2” SN, TR-2” IP, .25-.75” ZR Could see some isolated heavier amounts to 1” ZR if temps stay in 20’s). Switches to rain at coast and inland by a county or two limiting accumulation in those areas. SC low country-Midlands-NC Sandhills- TR-2” IP (more north and west), .25-1” ZR possibly a few higher totals in Sandhills to NW of Columbia. Switches to rain after light icing along the coast. Think worst ice runs from Greenville NC to Fayetteville to newberry SC to Greenwood SC and a county on either side of that line as first guess. Could extend further into GA as well especially Athens to Gainesville Praying a lot in NC and upstate get a sleet bomb

It has dipped to 12.9 at the farm in Louisburg and the airport is sitting at 14! Think that’s the coldest reading for both this season. Sitting at 21.2 here at home. Might fall a little more at both locations

Short answer- yes. Strength of HP does not mean it cannot get caught up in the flow and be transient. This is a huge common misconception that strong HP areas just can’t be moved, if there isn’t blocking, they will just keep on going. That being said, in this case we do have blocking. What we’ve seen shift is orientation. As the trough tends to dig further west, it is pulling our HP further north and opening up an escape path for our low to ride up the coast, in this case a miller B. Also while our HP is strong, the low has been trending stronger as well meaning it isn’t simply going to slide under the high. The high remains in an optimal spot for CAD areas so low level cold very likely will be there in the CAD favored regions throughout the storm but our storm system is likely still going to trend north as well as long as the trough keeps moving west. If I had to make a call now I’d say ATL has ice to rain, upstate has sleet to ice, SC midlands stay mostly ice, triad/foothills mostly sleet, triangle sleet to ice and coastal plain sleet to ice to rain. Snow will likely be limited to border counties and relatively brief. Think max snowfall might actually be in DC area up into Pennsylvania. Virginia likely gets thumped but I think with the coastal and miller b that warm nose changes the southern half over to sleet and eastern Virginia might actually be dancing with cold rain (Va beach, eastern shore).

Save this for the all time fail files: https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013634552833425732?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

GFS against the world, what could go wrong?

Like 6”+

If you’re gonna be wrong, you may as well choose a hill to die on

That’s not snow in Georgia or upstate. GFS starts the snow line at the NC border. Think that’s reading the sleet and ZR as snow especially in Georgia. I may be wrong

Sleet maps for central NC will be memorable for this run

GFS drags ZR line to wake but doesn’t look like it makes it to Raleigh proper. Just a pounding sleet storm

GFS ticked north slightly, but mostly unchanged

@eyewall the 6” snow probability for Raleigh is at 0% on the 0z EPS for Raleigh. We’re totally cooked

ICON much more amped. Big jump north again. Basically no snow in NC even at border. Holds the wedge, crippling ice.

I know why we failed: we believed in snow maps actually showing snow in the NC foothills. That should have been the first red flag models were out to lunch

And show HAS to be falling

After what just transpired for this weekend I don’t even know why tracking from more than 3 days out is even worthwhile

Anyone wanna start a thread for the February 2 storm??

Sadly, why this is happening is easy to explain. Models have been moving the trough further and further west for two days. What that does is twofold: dumps cold air further west and leads to an earlier and full capture of the Baja low. Result is an earlier phase, and the SER can flex again with the trough axis to the west. This is textbook coastal fail mode for the SE. The surprising thing to me is simply how poorly this was modeled. We’re talking a 500 mile shift since yesterday morning. With very good blocking setting up, I’m still somewhat skeptical of this cutting straight into the high, but we’re walking a fail line between ice and rain at this point if these solutions are realistic with the NS trough axis. I did not think I’d see a Baja low phase in Texas/oklahoma 24 hours ago but that’s what the modeling consensus shows us

Webb throwing up the white flag https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013860089803804790?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

Anyone know how the overnight models runs went?

Some of the trends on the EURO are the most stunning reversals I have ever seen. Parts of north Georgia have gone from the mid 20s to the mid 60s in 4 runs. It’s the king, but that is hard to take in. I am very skeptical the wedge just evaporates.

We have now crossed the line where the storm mode has changed. We won because energy was sliding under a 1040 mb high. This is now a super amped coastal. Even the big cities north of us are at risk of mix now if this is the case, like any nor Easter, BAM was right… That being said, be wary of the wedge eroding this fast, that’s a 1040, not a 1026 sitting in prime CAD position. EURO notoriously scours the wedge too quick. While hope for a snowstorm is fading and probably the least likely outcome for anyone on the board, I don’t see a way around a 2002-like ice event somewhere in the Carolina’s. Do not let your guard down, this can be a memorable storm, but for ALL the wrong reasons. What a freaking nightmare of a hobby

Frigid at BL. Not much change upstairs. QPF bomb

Didn’t ATL get a 4-6” storm like… last year?

Everyone says they’re going to bed but I know damned well this crew is staying up for the 0z suite