NorthHillsWx

2025 ACE is now within about 10 of average. With the two ongoing storms, albeit with Humberto likely to become non tropical today, we will be within single digits of average. I cannot stress enough how impressive this is given how far behind we were just a couple weeks ago

60 kts at 5 am but dry air has really slowed intensification. Models are pretty aggressive over the next 48 hours and some peak this near major. It likely won’t be a “pretty” storm but Bermuda looks to be in the bullseye of a strong hurricane. I really wouldn’t be shocked if this makes a run at cat 3 near the island. A lot of upper level dynamics at play including a very strong sting jet progged across guidance as the storm approaches the island. Very interested to watch the evolution

Woke up to good steady rain. Hopefully this continues for a bit. Much much needed EDIT: 0.70” looks to be the event total. MTD is now 0.95” really could’ve used some more from this system

0.53” for the event so far, 0.78” MTD

55 kts at 5 pm

Was not expecting it to look so symmetrical today. Very impressive loop and very clear it is getting its act together quickly

Last thing I’ll say right now- track guidance is now tightly clustered on a solution that gives Bermuda direct impacts if not a rare landfall. This is not a “fish” storm and may actually be chaseable in Bermuda

Wow, Melbourne radar shows a very well defined system with a partial eyewall. Continued strengthening is expected based on that look

Up to 60 mph at 11 am and now forecast to reach cat 2

Honestly this storm had organized at a quick pace overnight with pressure falls and a the center under the CDO. Think pace of intensification quickens through the day

Finally getting good rainfall at my house. It’s been so long the grass clippings from when I last mowed 3 weeks ago are still visible

With Humberto remaining a major for another day at least and Imelda potentially strengthening into a formidable hurricane the Atlantic has a real shot to be near normal ACE as we head into October. This seemed impossible a couple weeks ago but two long track cat 4+ storms will do that. With a current ACE of around 80 and likely a boost of around 15 more from the current storms we would be very close to seasonal averages. It would take continued cyclone activity to catch all the way up but still, this is like the the US in the Ryder cup over the weekend

Imelda looks like a bona fide Bermuda threat

Intensity guidance keeps ticking up. Watch this be our 4th straight major hurricane on the season

Put up or shut up time for the gulf

Feel VERY confident this has trended to just a rip current/beach erosion threat. Bermuda still needs to watch

What a beast. What a week. Atlantic showing off finally

Man we have missed out on everything. Just 0.09” so far

Also Bermuda is in play

These homebrew systems developing under ridges with weak steering flows are typically a pain in the ass to forecast in the southeast

Humberto being stronger and further west is why the models are showing more interaction/Imelda being pulled east. This is not set in stone hopefully no one lets their guard down but obviously this drastically reduces impacts if the offshore stall occurs. Huge difference in 100 miles at this range

If this “busts” I hope the public understands how tough a forecast this is and the difference between a major impact vs a non event is literally anyone’s guess right now. Good for South Carolina being proactive

I wish we had recon in there. This has the look of a high end cat 4 already

Per the current forecast Humberto would be near if not over Gabrielle’s number. Another high ACE producer incoming

The high end rain potential here is very scary in the Carolina’s especially with what happened last year. That needs to be the messaging right now no one needs to focus on intensity yet