NorthHillsWx

Wanna hear the explanation when i wake up and his forecast is for 8-12”

Anyone surprised?

2022

Between this and last storm there are some truly historical clown maps that need to be archived

If we’re still seeing runs like this at 0z tomorrow night I’ll take this seriously

One thing is whatever falls won’t lose a flake to melting. About as cold a lead up to storm as you can get in the Carolina’s. Hell most places probably looking at snow on snow in shaded areas. That so rarely happens here I bet I can count on one hand how many times I’ve seen that

If the GFS is even half right Raleigh has over a foot of snow that’s hilarious

We’re 16 pages in on a thread before the 3 day thread start rule

This is very bullish: https://x.com/nwsraleigh/status/2016222988543074686?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

I’ve gotta say hoping for a NW trend on a phased system feels 10000x times more productive than the opposite, like last weekend

When do the pieces of this start moving onshore? Tomorrow?

This was a good run for central NC. I’ve learned my lesson about being in the bullseye 4 days out

The fact no one on the forum learned their lesson and are living model run to model run 4-5 days out reinforces why I love this place so much

A smart man would never extrapolate the end of the NAM

NEVER EVER UTTER THESE WORDS

Bottomed out at 14.2 here this morning. If we’d had full snow cover im sure it would’ve been in single digits

Wasn’t that how Jan 2022 worked out

Given trough placement this has eastern NC written all over it. With the strong ULL I think everyone can score some Arctic powder but the coastal needs the trough to go full negative to get western areas involved

Yes- it’s just the ULL, coastal gets going too late. The ULL is easier to score but if it’s just that without coastal enhancement this will be a widespread 1-4” type system, which everyone will gladly take, but the larger totals that started this thread will not be realized

NGL, this is a delicate setup. The ULL likely will squeeze something out over the Carolina’s but relying on a late phase with timing and low placement for a bigger coastal storm is like finding a needle in a haystack, maps looks beautiful but in reality, this one has way too many variables to have a high chance of success.

GFS drops the hammer. Big run incoming

Can’t wait to see this place at the end of the week

Wow. We weren’t even close to that

IMO no global did great. EURO AI sniffed the northern track out earlier. We rag the Euro but with the start time pushed to Sunday it jumped all at once to the more northern track 4-5 days out, obviously it was way too warm but overall after it made that jump I felt it led the way. GFS was just horrible. It held on to the more suppressed look the longest and began a painful tick north for the last 3 days. Short range, NAM nailed it. Cannot say enough about how impressive a performance from NAM this was. For this storm, looking like a miller A, I wonder if models will be better given it may be more consolidated than the mess that was the last system

Anyone see official storm totals? I’m estimating maybe 3/4” sleet and 0.15” ZR here but that’s up for debate. Could’ve been less