NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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The odds this maintains cat 3 into landfall are not low. Also the fast forward motion is going to aid in gusts. Very serious situation unfolding now. Hope everyone took evacuation orders seriously
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GDM models absolutely destroyed the physics based models on this storm. How those euro and GFS runs where they had a weak TS still sitting off the Yucatán at this timeframe looking now?
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It might be earlier than that. Keeps bumping up landfall time each run. We’re not working with a ton of time for this to fall apart and it doesn’t matter when the center crosses because that eyewall is obviously out ahead of it. Dangerous situation saw they increased max surge from 7 to 9 feet, not insignificant at all especially with the population center this is plowing into
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Fully supported by recon data. That’s why NHC waited at 8 am knowing they had a plane heading straight for the money pass. Great job hurricane hunters. This might peak at cat 4
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Upgrade coming. What a pass. Might be 120
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This pass will decide if it gets the upgrade. I would be shocked if it didn’t find cat 3-worthy winds
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HAFS-B has gone from a decapitated, essentially nor Easter, landfall to a cat 3 with eyewall intact as it crosses the coast. Buckle up coastal residents
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Think they are awaiting recon but that is almost undeniably a major at the moment. I’d venture to guess recon emphatically concludes the same
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What a tough forecast. You have an intensifying likely major hurricane on final approach and are banking on a decapitation to occur in next 12 hours while the system is still intensifying at the moment. Wouldn’t want to be the one sending that messaging. NHC is doing a fantastic job with it. I still think this weakens to cat 1 by landfalll but NHC noted explicitly they are expecting a high end cat 2 when it crosses the coast now
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Eye coming into radar view of KEVX and KMOB now snd it looks very strong
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Also has it pretty much on the coast at 100 mph now
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Bet this is close to major already
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Next recon will be telling.
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I’m going with an overnight/morning peak of 105 kts and a LF at 80 kts
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Regional hurricane models had a large uptick at 18z for overnight intensity. Really wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a major overnight. Also, this is never going to be a photographic hurricane, too much shear for that
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Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight?
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Very impressive ring of convection developing around the…. Eye…. Yes we have a legit eye now! Appears to be making another leap
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FL supported 80 kts but they noted tail Doppler found slightly higher winds around them enough to justify the increase. With organization once again looking better there’s nothing to argue why further increases wouldn’t be expected tonight as well
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Not a bad looking storm at all!
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Yep. Core is there and it will be moving over slightly warmer waters too. Diurnal max will be the max for this system. Imo 95-105 kts is attainable
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Recon seems supportive of 80 kts, closing in on cat 2 at a much more modest rate today
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Looks like a legit eye to me but it’s only cleared out bc the convection waned and isn’t overshooting it from the SW I believe. Looks legit now
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My expectation for most of the piedmont is 1" but I would not be surprised in the coastal convection robbed even more moisture and there is a screw zone of like 1/2" between here and PTI
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Been on the same pattern since yesterday of convection really dying off during diurnal minimum but coming back with a vengeance overnight
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Very impressive structure especially given the shear. If it maintains the current blow up of storms during the convective minimum that could allow significant intensification
