NorthHillsWx

I actually strongly disagree. It wasn’t one run. It was nonstop runs for a week from every model showing a major storm, not necessarily a snowstorm. QPF across most areas was near 1” with over 2” east. It literally was over 1” here at day 3. It was such consistent modeling WPC jumped on it early and issued a high chance of 4+” of snow from triad to DC. Our bar in Raleigh was originally a crippling ice storm so our expectations were not high at all although I would’ve wagered the house there would at least be a significant east coast storm. To get inside day 3 then lose it in short range is what happened here. Now I’m not saying it’s cooked. A 2-4” or 3-5” snowfall would make everyone on the board happy and that’s still on the table east of 77 imo. We’ve seen last minute trends. But it wasn’t one run that sucked the entire east coast into this one and resulted in the MA forum starting two threads and then offering up posters as sacrifices…

My forecast totals: Triangle: Boom = 4-5” Bust =TR-1/2” Expected = 1-2” with isolated 3” possible. More east Triad: Boom = 2-3” Bust = 0” Expected = 1” Mixing will be from Raleigh south but wake will favor more snow than sleet as a whole

Long way to say 1-2” snowfall incoming. Maybe 3” if someone gets a band maybe 1/2” if it mixes with sleet haha

If model trends are right, I’m not sure you want to be due north of Raleigh. Lot of models swing the back edge through Raleigh to the NE and places due north get less QPF. I’m saying the Vance/granville areas and parts of Franklin county then west.

Honestly that’s not far from a plausible outcome. The consensus seems to be 0.2-0.3” QPF for RDU so I seriously doubt we don’t see something accumulate but that’s likely 1-1.5”. 6z GFS and 12k NAM keep hope alive for maybe a warning but everything else cut totals. 3k NAM went from a 6-8” storm to 2-4” and the EURO now has Raleigh down to around 2”

This has to tick west, right? Every coastal like the last 10 years has ticked west right before go time and burnt Raleigh but this one ticks east? At this point I’m not sure even if it’s all snow there will be enough QPF to get more than 1-2 inches and, once again with light rates and falling in afternoon, that will be 1-2” on the grass. So a nuisance event.

Yea I will be honest I do not see what they are up your way. Raleigh looks like it’s going to be on the very edge of the coastal and north and west of that QPF falls. Only place a warning looks locked in is far SE VA and NE NC. Should be a great event there

Looks like QPF continues to go down and mid levels continue to cool. RAH pretty much said they aren’t sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria in central NC. Seems like the correct call at this juncture

SW Virginia stayed about the same

Canadian went pretty far east. Cut QPF across the board

Until the NAM caves I’m tempering my expectations for all snow.

That’s a great run for triangle folks. Beefed up QPF and better thermals. Look at the foothills screw zone. That area cannot catch a break

GFS is excellent triangle east. Not good for foothills crowd

Shaping up to be a good coastal storm for whoever has banding and no mid level issues

Bet against NAM thermals at your own peril

How is a low tracking 150 miles southeast of cape lookout not snow in Raleigh?

NAM is setting up south and juiced. Will we get NAMd???

It’s the 48 hour HRRR it’s for entertainment purposes only. One thing that is interesting about this year IMBY is it’s looking likely we have 3 events that stay below freezing for basically the event. Cold air has not been the problem

HRRR looked good for eastern half of NC

If you’re not plucking out individual SREF members to post are you really living?

If we’re relying on SREF plumes we’re cooked but I’ll bite

We’re seeing differences of more than .5” of QPF across models around 36 hours out and other than EPS all ensembles have continued to trend down with precip through the day. Yet, CAMs are pretty wet even western areas. Do we trust CAMs or are we going to put our faith in globals? The differences across NC range from a nuisance event to major winter storm. I’d definitely avoid looking at the high snowfall maps. I think NE NC jacks with 4-6” and theres a swath of 1-3 that extends through triangle and south of that lies a sharp cutoff to ice. Fits climo and sounds reasonable considering vast model differences (I wouldn’t lean heavily one direction or the other)

Another big decrease. If this continues it will be flurries. That same model had RDU at 1.26” of QPF yesterday. At least EPS looked slightly better

I endorse this

GFS says cancel your warm weather plans